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-   -   Is this good news? (https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=1166345)

Floridatilly 29 Mar 20 02:55 PM

Is this good news?
 
Is this good news or am i being too optimistic :
So in the last 24 hours 209 have died
The previous 24 beforehand was 260
So quite a big drop, have we peaked?

floridasarah 29 Mar 20 02:57 PM

What was the difference in new cases? I think that is the number that will tell us if we have peaked or not. And then it has to be continous for a while.

neilhd 29 Mar 20 02:57 PM

I guess any drop in deaths is good, but we need to see a trend over a few days really.

Evil queen 29 Mar 20 03:04 PM

I donít think we can make any judgement based on one reading, a little fluctuation probably doesnít indicate anything unfortunately. I think we are still looking at peaking in 2-3 weeks when the impact of current measures will kick in. Of course, I would love to be completely wrong!

Omega1 29 Mar 20 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evil queen (Post 14368683)
I donít think we can make any judgement based on one reading, a little fluctuation probably doesnít indicate anything unfortunately. I think we are still looking at peaking in 2-3 weeks when the impact of current measures will kick in. Of course, I would love to be completely wrong!

This. We wonít see the impact of current measures for at least two weeks and then there is the Ďlagí before it impacts positively on deaths.

sparklegirl 29 Mar 20 03:06 PM

I donít think we will see a proper downturn for a few weeks when the effects of the social distancing and lockdown really kick in. This will allow for the incubation period of two weeks to fully pass and hopefully see a benefit. If the incubation period and the illness period are added together I am thinking 3-4 weeks before we notice a significant and sustained change. I hope I am wrong and to be fair I am not a statistician or medic but it seems to be common sense timescales. Itís flattening the curve.

MSG 29 Mar 20 03:08 PM

Well it's not bad news! I have no clue what any of it means any more.

tspill 29 Mar 20 03:12 PM

Well it is good news in that it is less deaths.
But we need to see a trend to be able to answer your question. We have had other single day drops (24/25 March) only for the next day to have a massive increase. Lets see in a week or two.

RickT 29 Mar 20 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Floridatilly (Post 14368669)
Is this good news or am i being too optimistic :
So in the last 24 hours 209 have died
The previous 24 beforehand was 260
So quite a big drop, have we peaked?

As mentioned, it's sad news, but we are weeks away from been able to say we have hit a peak.

neilhd 29 Mar 20 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSG (Post 14368692)
Well it's not bad news! I have no clue what any of it means any more.

I agree. A daily statistic of deaths is pretty meaningless. What I'd wish they would announce is:

Daily deaths WITH Covid-19 (this is what they do now).
Daily deaths where Covid-19 is actually the main cause of death.
Daily deaths of other respiratory diseases/illnesses.
Daily number of excess deaths over what they would normally expect to see this time of year.


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