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-   -   Is this good news? (https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=1166345)

Mazbar 29 Mar 20 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minnie18 (Post 14368762)
I said "could"

Do you have a rational for your reply?

A peak is the top of a increasing line before it comes down, what you described is a Plateau.

Minnie18 29 Mar 20 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mazbar (Post 14368777)
A peak is the top of a increasing line before it comes down, what you described is a Plateau.

👍 I understand that but surely the peak will last longer than 24 hours?

A virus peak doesn't have a definitive timeline.

tspill 29 Mar 20 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winterphoenix (Post 14368756)
The peak will not last ‘months’.

So the question is why dont you think this?
Firstly, the measures taken were to flatten the peak, so surly the expectation is that a flatter peak by definition will last longer at a lower level?
Also, No one knows how long the peak will last. Most seem to think we will have a see/saw long duration peak where we release restrictions to aid the economy for a bit, the problem ramps up a bit. Then lockdown for a bit. This could go on until immunity is achieved via herd effect or vaccine. And we are being told this could ne 12-18 months away.

sully301 29 Mar 20 03:50 PM

i think we have to brace ourselves for the same figures as Italy. We still seem to be 2 weeks behind them and following that trend. Not trying to be negative but at least if you know.

RickT 29 Mar 20 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winterphoenix (Post 14368756)
The peak will not last ‘months’.

It depends what you define the peak as, in a delay process which we are trying to get control to reduce the load on the nhs at present, this "peak" could infact be over a controlled period of time when you look back at the statistics on a week by week basis say 3 or 4 months down the line..

tspill 29 Mar 20 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mazbar (Post 14368777)
A peak is the top of a increasing line before it comes down, what you described is a Plateau.

peak and plateau are often the same thing. A plateau being a drawn out flat peak. And I think that is what is expected here.

Minnie18 29 Mar 20 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tspill (Post 14368782)
So the question is why dont you think this?
Firstly, the measures taken were to flatten the peak, so surly the expectation is that a flatter peak by definition will last longer at a lower level?
Also, No one knows how long the peak will last. Most seem to think we will have a see/saw long duration peak where we release restrictions to aid the economy for a bit, the problem ramps up a bit. Then lockdown for a bit. This could go on until immunity is achieved via herd effect or vaccine. And we are being told this could ne 12-18 months away.

That's what the Chris's deputy Jenny said the other day at her briefing.

Megandllsmum 29 Mar 20 04:02 PM

Way I see it is it's good the numbers are lower but still incredibly sad, and it's clear looking at other countries the numbers have a way to rise, otherwise why build this nightingale hospital and others around the country. what I am concerned about is maybe some people get complacent or interpret it as a good thing too soon and start being not so strict with social distancing or lockdown 😥

Minnie18 29 Mar 20 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megandllsmum (Post 14368802)
Way I see it is it's good the numbers are lower but still incredibly sad, and it's clear looking at other countries the numbers have a way to rise, otherwise why build this nightingale hospital and others around the country. what I am concerned about is maybe some people get complacent or interpret it as a good thing too soon and start being not so strict with social distancing or lockdown 😥

Dh just said the exact same thing as you 😪

Stay safe everyone.

Minnie18 29 Mar 20 04:55 PM

Length of lockdown

Dr Harries is asked whether lockdown measures will be in place for longer than three weeks.

She says: "The PM said he would review in three weeks. It would be foolish of us to start something one day and assume it's going to have an impact the next.

"Those measures have been in place solidly for a week or two. We need a couple of weeks to see that through."

Dr Harries says that it could be six months or longer before the country gets back to normal from the pandemic, with reviews of lockdown measures every three weeks.

The above is from Sky news following today's briefing that I've just watched.

My heart truly does go out to anyone who thought this would be a short term thing.

Xx


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