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Search: Posts Made By: Andy C
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 12:26 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 975
Posted By Andy C
Thanks :) Yep, that was me. Possibly a bit...

Thanks :)

Yep, that was me. Possibly a bit self-serving linking one of my own articles, but it seemed on-topic.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 11:54 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 975
Posted By Andy C
One that worries me is what will happen the next...

One that worries me is what will happen the next time we get a Carrington Event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event).

Potentially wiping out electronics on whichever side of the planet...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 11:51 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 454
Posted By Andy C
I does smack a bit of "Brakes are worthless apart...

I does smack a bit of "Brakes are worthless apart from slowing the car down and avoiding crashes."

We knew before lockdown started that there were three routes:

- Do nothing, and face the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 11:46 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,106
Posted By Andy C
Absolutely, TinselAngel. There's too much...

Absolutely, TinselAngel.

There's too much danger of losing sight of the fact that it is:
- Safe
- Efficacious (passing the required level no matter which regimen was chosen)
- Easily deployable.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 09:44 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 618
Posted By Andy C
I think the takeaway is that most places were at...

I think the takeaway is that most places were at too low a level before they went in (I know the Local Authority leaders in Oxfordshire were pressing to be in Tier 2 before all this to try to head...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 09:38 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 618
Posted By Andy C
That looks logical with a couple of outliers. ...

That looks logical with a couple of outliers.
I'd agree that London looks a tier too low.

I can see Stratford on Avon feeling hard done by, but it would probably be a bit difficult to carve them...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 09:22 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 454
Posted By Andy C
Nor am I sure what youíre saying. It was front...

Nor am I sure what youíre saying.
It was front and centre in the famous Imperial College report on March 16 - suppression has to have an exit strategy.



They did overlook, though, that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 09:05 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 454
Posted By Andy C
We're - we're literally getting several vaccines...

We're - we're literally getting several vaccines coming through.

Kicking the can down the road saved a load of people (adding a zero to the end of the current death tolls to get to acquired herd...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 09:00 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,106
Posted By Andy C
Wasn't impressed with that Wired piece, to be...

Wasn't impressed with that Wired piece, to be honest. Felt like a bit of a hack job, possibly because I'm very much used to meta-analyses being done and most of the piece was saying that again and...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 04:57 PM
Replies: 224
Poll: Vaccine poll
Views: 15,082
Posted By Andy C
I find it heartening that since the vaccines were...

I find it heartening that since the vaccines were announced, the "Yes" percentage has been creeping up.

I think it was below 74% at one point, and has inched upwards (with this number of...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 25 Nov 20, 07:21 PM
Replies: 1,943
Views: 115,501
Posted By Andy C
With reporting lag, it might be a few more days...

With reporting lag, it might be a few more days before the death numbers start coming down.

I am, though, going to suspect that this may be the highest announced death toll of this wave.
...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 25 Nov 20, 03:12 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 2,989
Posted By Andy C
Yeah, it's realistically not possible to close...

Yeah, it's realistically not possible to close off all routes in. Best we can do is reduce the chance, but people still end up rolling snake eyes every now and again :(

I hope you recover quickly.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 25 Nov 20, 12:51 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,386
Posted By Andy C
The main difference between the two things is...

The main difference between the two things is what they're measuring: one is the outcome from people who were infected; the other is whether or not people have been infected in the first place.

On...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 25 Nov 20, 09:42 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,386
Posted By Andy C
Here, you will be recorded in the "deaths within...

Here, you will be recorded in the "deaths within 28 days of positive test," unlike those who die from covid without a positive test.

Looking at previous years of death, best guess would be that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 25 Nov 20, 08:37 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,386
Posted By Andy C
True but given that we'd just had...

True but given that we'd just had deaths-by-date-reported being almost exactly the same as deaths-by-date-reported scaled in Sweden within two hours of each other, and there had been thousands of...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 25 Nov 20, 08:16 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,386
Posted By Andy C
Thatís never slowed down people citing Sweden...

Thatís never slowed down people citing Sweden before when they claimed its deaths were low. We could probably compare the Scandinavian countries, I believe they all use similar criteria.

How...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 25 Nov 20, 07:56 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,386
Posted By Andy C
I always go straight to the Swedish Health stats...

I always go straight to the Swedish Health stats official site here:
...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 24 Nov 20, 06:09 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,386
Posted By Andy C
94 deaths announced in Sweden today. Scaled to...

94 deaths announced in Sweden today.
Scaled to population, that's equivalent to 614 deaths in the UK.

It does, however, include data from the weekend that wasn't presented before.
Cases and...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 24 Nov 20, 05:26 PM
Replies: 1,943
Views: 115,501
Posted By Andy C
608 deaths announced today (the Tuesday Boost has...

608 deaths announced today (the Tuesday Boost has hit, catching up on the weekend deaths).

Painful, and higher than I'd hoped, but the hospital admissions are still continuing to decline, showing...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 24 Nov 20, 03:55 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 3,830
Posted By Andy C
One possibility is to aim for a within-bubble...

One possibility is to aim for a within-bubble Christmas in December, but plan a massive summer get-together (assuming full vaccination and the disease is under control by then).

Call it...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 24 Nov 20, 02:13 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 1,970
Posted By Andy C
We've also managed to reduce the deaths from...

We've also managed to reduce the deaths from cancer by 20% in the past decade, I understand.

We've made similar strides in heart surgery and treatment of heart disease.

Fortunately, we don't...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 24 Nov 20, 11:42 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,021
Posted By Andy C
And this very issue is now on factcheck: ...

And this very issue is now on factcheck:

https://fullfact.org/health/mail-deaths-chart/
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:27 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 5,305
Posted By Andy C
Oh, there's one additional common source of...

Oh, there's one additional common source of delay: infection rates.
If your trial group doesn't get enough exposure to the virus, you're going to take a long time to get data.

That's the one...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:22 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 5,305
Posted By Andy C
To be fair, most of the time in vaccine...

To be fair, most of the time in vaccine development is usually empty time:

Writing grant proposals, getting them reviewed, having them rejected, rewriting them, resubmitting them, re-reviewing...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:12 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 5,305
Posted By Andy C
Some people do have immunocompromised systems for...

Some people do have immunocompromised systems for one reason or another. It's rare, but it does exist, and they're usually not supposed to get vaccines - they have to rely on herd immunity (if those...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:09 PM
Replies: 1,943
Views: 115,501
Posted By Andy C
206 deaths announced today. Although the...

206 deaths announced today.

Although the weekend effect is prominent, it's still down a bit on last weekend, and the hospitalisation figures are also down.

Hoping for announced deaths under 550...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:51 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
For me, the biggest takeaway is this: Pfizer...

For me, the biggest takeaway is this:

Pfizer and Moderna did something very good and very useful and that can hugely help the situation.

Oxford/Astrazeneca have provided something that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:30 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,021
Posted By Andy C
Agreed. The problem is that it's profitable for...

Agreed.
The problem is that it's profitable for them: provide what people want to believe and they will believe it without questioning it.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:19 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,021
Posted By Andy C
I think I've found what you're talking about - a...

I think I've found what you're talking about - a Daily Mail article on death projections:...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:08 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,021
Posted By Andy C
Where, if you would? The ONS figures are from...

Where, if you would?
The ONS figures are from the ONS own release.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 12:39 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,021
Posted By Andy C
Daily Mail pulled up for misinformation on Excess Deaths

I don't usually read the twitter feeds of Conservative MPs, but a friend brought this one to my attention:

https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/status/1330830811688472578

Basically - the Daily...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 11:40 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
Fully agree. Without robrar and those who...

Fully agree. Without robrar and those who stepped up like him, we'd be nowhere on this.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 11:39 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
I've seen speculation that the difference between...

I've seen speculation that the difference between the two regimes might (might) be that as the vector is an attenuated adenovirus (that doesn't affect humans), possibly the human immune system gets...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 10:36 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
One further thing: the Pfizer and Moderna trials...

One further thing: the Pfizer and Moderna trials only tested symptomatic cases.

The Oxford one did regular full-on swabs to pick up asymptomatic cases as well.

EDIT: Posted simultaneously with...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:53 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
Arithmetically, I make it that the numbers were...

Arithmetically, I make it that the numbers were probably pretty close to:

half dose/full dose/4 weeks regimen: 30 in placebo (unknown amount serious); 3 in vaccine (none serious)
full dose/full...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:39 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
I'm nodding here. The real takeaway is that the...

I'm nodding here.
The real takeaway is that the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine is effective, tested more than one dose regime and found one of those was probably 90% effective, both regimes prevented...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:29 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
One corollary is that if the half-dose, four...

One corollary is that if the half-dose, four weeks, full-dose regimen is followed as the most effective (possibly be hitting upon a useful immune system training method/time?), we have quite a bit...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:21 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,808
Posted By Andy C
More effective than the TB vaccine, as well.

More effective than the TB vaccine, as well.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 22 Nov 20, 07:05 PM
Replies: 1,943
Views: 115,501
Posted By Andy C
Hospital figures not too bad, all things...

Hospital figures not too bad, all things considered. They've definitely plateaued and may be on a gentle down slope (obviously this conceals a multitude of regional variations; in some areas in the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 21 Nov 20, 06:19 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 5,424
Posted By Andy C
All the way down and then some. I think weíve...

All the way down and then some.
I think weíve got enough on order for three times our population. In case some didnít get approved, or we needed more frequent boosters.

Pfizer (40 million doses...
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