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Search: Posts Made By: Andy C
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 03:12 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 825
Posted By Andy C
Yeah, it's realistically not possible to close...

Yeah, it's realistically not possible to close off all routes in. Best we can do is reduce the chance, but people still end up rolling snake eyes every now and again :(

I hope you recover quickly.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 12:51 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,058
Posted By Andy C
The main difference between the two things is...

The main difference between the two things is what they're measuring: one is the outcome from people who were infected; the other is whether or not people have been infected in the first place.

On...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 09:42 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,058
Posted By Andy C
Here, you will be recorded in the "deaths within...

Here, you will be recorded in the "deaths within 28 days of positive test," unlike those who die from covid without a positive test.

Looking at previous years of death, best guess would be that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 08:37 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,058
Posted By Andy C
True but given that we'd just had...

True but given that we'd just had deaths-by-date-reported being almost exactly the same as deaths-by-date-reported scaled in Sweden within two hours of each other, and there had been thousands of...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 08:16 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,058
Posted By Andy C
That’s never slowed down people citing Sweden...

That’s never slowed down people citing Sweden before when they claimed its deaths were low. We could probably compare the Scandinavian countries, I believe they all use similar criteria.

How...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 07:56 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,058
Posted By Andy C
I always go straight to the Swedish Health stats...

I always go straight to the Swedish Health stats official site here:
...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 06:09 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 3,058
Posted By Andy C
94 deaths announced in Sweden today. Scaled to...

94 deaths announced in Sweden today.
Scaled to population, that's equivalent to 614 deaths in the UK.

It does, however, include data from the weekend that wasn't presented before.
Cases and...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 05:26 PM
Replies: 1,940
Views: 114,992
Posted By Andy C
608 deaths announced today (the Tuesday Boost has...

608 deaths announced today (the Tuesday Boost has hit, catching up on the weekend deaths).

Painful, and higher than I'd hoped, but the hospital admissions are still continuing to decline, showing...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 03:55 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 3,757
Posted By Andy C
One possibility is to aim for a within-bubble...

One possibility is to aim for a within-bubble Christmas in December, but plan a massive summer get-together (assuming full vaccination and the disease is under control by then).

Call it...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 02:13 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 1,910
Posted By Andy C
We've also managed to reduce the deaths from...

We've also managed to reduce the deaths from cancer by 20% in the past decade, I understand.

We've made similar strides in heart surgery and treatment of heart disease.

Fortunately, we don't...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 11:42 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 981
Posted By Andy C
And this very issue is now on factcheck: ...

And this very issue is now on factcheck:

https://fullfact.org/health/mail-deaths-chart/
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:27 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 5,148
Posted By Andy C
Oh, there's one additional common source of...

Oh, there's one additional common source of delay: infection rates.
If your trial group doesn't get enough exposure to the virus, you're going to take a long time to get data.

That's the one...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:22 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 5,148
Posted By Andy C
To be fair, most of the time in vaccine...

To be fair, most of the time in vaccine development is usually empty time:

Writing grant proposals, getting them reviewed, having them rejected, rewriting them, resubmitting them, re-reviewing...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:12 PM
Replies: 74
Views: 5,148
Posted By Andy C
Some people do have immunocompromised systems for...

Some people do have immunocompromised systems for one reason or another. It's rare, but it does exist, and they're usually not supposed to get vaccines - they have to rely on herd immunity (if those...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 06:09 PM
Replies: 1,940
Views: 114,992
Posted By Andy C
206 deaths announced today. Although the...

206 deaths announced today.

Although the weekend effect is prominent, it's still down a bit on last weekend, and the hospitalisation figures are also down.

Hoping for announced deaths under 550...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:51 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
For me, the biggest takeaway is this: Pfizer...

For me, the biggest takeaway is this:

Pfizer and Moderna did something very good and very useful and that can hugely help the situation.

Oxford/Astrazeneca have provided something that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:30 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 981
Posted By Andy C
Agreed. The problem is that it's profitable for...

Agreed.
The problem is that it's profitable for them: provide what people want to believe and they will believe it without questioning it.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:19 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 981
Posted By Andy C
I think I've found what you're talking about - a...

I think I've found what you're talking about - a Daily Mail article on death projections:...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 02:08 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 981
Posted By Andy C
Where, if you would? The ONS figures are from...

Where, if you would?
The ONS figures are from the ONS own release.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 12:39 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 981
Posted By Andy C
Daily Mail pulled up for misinformation on Excess Deaths

I don't usually read the twitter feeds of Conservative MPs, but a friend brought this one to my attention:

https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/status/1330830811688472578

Basically - the Daily...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 11:40 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
Fully agree. Without robrar and those who...

Fully agree. Without robrar and those who stepped up like him, we'd be nowhere on this.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 11:39 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
I've seen speculation that the difference between...

I've seen speculation that the difference between the two regimes might (might) be that as the vector is an attenuated adenovirus (that doesn't affect humans), possibly the human immune system gets...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 10:36 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
One further thing: the Pfizer and Moderna trials...

One further thing: the Pfizer and Moderna trials only tested symptomatic cases.

The Oxford one did regular full-on swabs to pick up asymptomatic cases as well.

EDIT: Posted simultaneously with...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:53 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
Arithmetically, I make it that the numbers were...

Arithmetically, I make it that the numbers were probably pretty close to:

half dose/full dose/4 weeks regimen: 30 in placebo (unknown amount serious); 3 in vaccine (none serious)
full dose/full...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:39 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
I'm nodding here. The real takeaway is that the...

I'm nodding here.
The real takeaway is that the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine is effective, tested more than one dose regime and found one of those was probably 90% effective, both regimes prevented...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:29 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
One corollary is that if the half-dose, four...

One corollary is that if the half-dose, four weeks, full-dose regimen is followed as the most effective (possibly be hitting upon a useful immune system training method/time?), we have quite a bit...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 23 Nov 20, 08:21 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,732
Posted By Andy C
More effective than the TB vaccine, as well.

More effective than the TB vaccine, as well.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 22 Nov 20, 07:05 PM
Replies: 1,940
Views: 114,992
Posted By Andy C
Hospital figures not too bad, all things...

Hospital figures not too bad, all things considered. They've definitely plateaued and may be on a gentle down slope (obviously this conceals a multitude of regional variations; in some areas in the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 21 Nov 20, 06:19 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 5,399
Posted By Andy C
All the way down and then some. I think we’ve...

All the way down and then some.
I think we’ve got enough on order for three times our population. In case some didn’t get approved, or we needed more frequent boosters.

Pfizer (40 million doses...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 08:02 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 680
Posted By Andy C
“The best possible Christmas present - is a...

“The best possible Christmas present - is a future”
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 06:31 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 5,399
Posted By Andy C
And, in any case, it looks like the Government...

And, in any case, it looks like the Government are hoping to immunise all 10 of the priority tranches (down to age 50 and including all adults with high or moderate vulnerabilities) by late January...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 05:54 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 5,399
Posted By Andy C
And, of course, it's not the case that people...

And, of course, it's not the case that people would get to make the decision of what level of risk they're willing to accept.

In that scenario, they'd be deciding what level of risk to impose upon...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 05:16 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 5,399
Posted By Andy C
How about we go with numbers that have actually...

How about we go with numbers that have actually died and been hospitalised rather than comforting low estimates?

Reality doesn’t care what we want to believe; it has a nasty habit of going on...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 03:19 PM
Replies: 307
Views: 20,157
Posted By Andy C
Absolutely. One of my first SNCOs once told me...

Absolutely. One of my first SNCOs once told me something very useful: focus on what you can do. Not what you can't.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 03:18 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 5,399
Posted By Andy C
Add a zero to all of them. It's estimated...

Add a zero to all of them.

It's estimated that 5.5 million have had the virus in the UK. That's a little over 8%. If we "unleash the dogs", we'll get ten-fold the deaths (assuming, of course,...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 02:37 PM
Replies: 1,940
Views: 114,992
Posted By Andy C
Following up on this, two weeks later. The...

Following up on this, two weeks later.

The ONS infection rates have been amended (both since that date and before). This changes the effective average IFR - although the projections for daily...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 01:36 PM
Replies: 1,940
Views: 114,992
Posted By Andy C
Latest ONS figures now out. The biggest...

Latest ONS figures now out.

The biggest single effect seems to have been... half term.

https://www.thedibb.co.uk/postImages/9415/5667d531ceab13.jpg

You can spot it easily in the secondary...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 12:21 PM
Replies: 91
Views: 5,399
Posted By Andy C
I would tend to agree that vaccinated people...

I would tend to agree that vaccinated people would be highly likely to spread less - quite possibly less likely even than those who have acquired immunity through infections.

Immunity is really...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 11:23 AM
Replies: 307
Views: 20,157
Posted By Andy C
Given the amount of vaccines we've...

Given the amount of vaccines we've optioned/bought, I am very sanguine that all of us will eventually (at some point in 2021) be offered the vaccine.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 20 Nov 20, 10:26 AM
Replies: 307
Views: 20,157
Posted By Andy C
I think it would be only those told to isolate. ...

I think it would be only those told to isolate. As I recall it, about 2.5 million people were told to isolate over and above the most elderly, so the total of 2.2 million in those categories would...
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