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Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 01:48 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,834
Posted By Andy C
Ah, a bit down the Twitter thread, he says he...

Ah, a bit down the Twitter thread, he says he made a typo and he’s actually claiming 0.25% - which is still impossible, but he found an isolated claim of an IFR that low and he likes it so he’s...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 01:35 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,834
Posted By Andy C
God, seriously? That’s - beyond absurd. When...

God, seriously? That’s - beyond absurd. When 0.25% leads to an impossible answer, and he goes ten times worse...

(I also notice he’s comparing the Case Fatality Rate from early in the pandemic...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 01:15 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
Yup. We’re in a far better position than other...

Yup. We’re in a far better position than other countries. There are something like 15 million Oxford vaccine doses in the country just waiting to be bottled and go through checks. It’s looking better...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 01:13 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,834
Posted By Andy C
Oh, indeed. In fact, it was people like you I...

Oh, indeed.
In fact, it was people like you I had in mind when mentioning the difficulty they have in trying to get people to swallow things - you’ve shown that you won’t be wedded to any particular...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 12:07 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,834
Posted By Andy C
The eternal rule that those who say what people...

The eternal rule that those who say what people would like to hear (regardless of truth or lack of it) will never lack an audience holds here.

The more unusual thing is that more and more people...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Today, 10:39 AM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
I've had a quick look, but sky13 is completely...

I've had a quick look, but sky13 is completely correct: an aggregation of lots of small incremental improvements has made amazing strides.

I'll be honest, I didn't realise how much until just...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 07:40 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,834
Posted By Andy C
I think because his model for this epidemic -...

I think because his model for this epidemic - which was much maligned by some at the time - has been proven remarkably prophetic as the pandemic unfolded (as you correctly imply, time always tells...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 07:12 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,834
Posted By Andy C
Sunetra Gupta started by predicting that possibly...

Sunetra Gupta started by predicting that possibly over 50% of the country had had covid and was now immune - in early March 2020. This proved incorrect quickly and will not be proven correct in...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 05:43 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
Good news up front: the vaccination progress is...

Good news up front: the vaccination progress is absolutely excellent and ahead of schedule.

Apart from that, I rather blotted my copybook badly by rushing out a model too soon earlier; I've...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 02:54 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
Oh, heck - I've just spotted that at one point in...

Oh, heck - I've just spotted that at one point in the spreadsheet I started double-counting the vaccination effect.

Damn. It falls off considerably slower. I'll put up a revised one in a bit,...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 01:19 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
EDIT: UPDATE - I FOUND A KEY ERROR IN THE MODEL. ...

EDIT: UPDATE - I FOUND A KEY ERROR IN THE MODEL. PLEASE DISREGARD THE BELOW.

I'm very sorry - it's NOT as good as the below. I'm leaving this up as people have already responded to it and to...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 12:04 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,834
Posted By Andy C
It was irresponsible of the authors of the study...

It was irresponsible of the authors of the study to speculate like that when the discoverers of the cross-reactivity were unequivocal that it was extremely unlikely to provide any useful increase in...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 11:52 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 1,922
Posted By Andy C
Major takeaways from the SIREN study: Under...

Major takeaways from the SIREN study:

Under 20% of those previously infected should be reinfected and become infectious in their turn. BUT seven out of ten of these will be asymptomatic throughout...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 09:45 AM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
Sorry - by the time yesterday's figures finally...

Sorry - by the time yesterday's figures finally came out, I was in bed.

Deaths
1248 announced. It seems strange that figures that horrible could come with a tinge of relief, but they do - it's...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 07:57 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
That's not too bad. Need to see what days...

That's not too bad. Need to see what days they're posted against - as I said earlier, I'm partly expecting a brief uptick on the way down due to possible Christmas mixing.

I'm braced for further...
Forum: General Chat 14 Jan 21, 07:51 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 970
Posted By Andy C
Our next one is a year after yours, but I've...

Our next one is a year after yours, but I've started counting down further out than this!
(Ours is primarily dictated by family specifics, anyway)
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 06:22 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
All tests so far on new variants have confirmed...

All tests so far on new variants have confirmed the vaccines work on all those tested.
Even if one wiggles in the direction of vaccine escape, rather than a binary on/off, it would be likely to...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 06:08 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
Todays data is delayed with issues over...

Todays data is delayed with issues over processing of deaths data. Hopefully not due to numbers.

Ordinarily, I'd expect Thursday numbers on deaths to be down on Wednesday following the previous...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 04:44 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
The Scottish Government published their expected...

The Scottish Government published their expected supply forecast for vaccine receipt earlier, and hurriedly took it down due to commercial concerns.

There's no hint that it was inaccurate,...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 02:48 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 1,862
Posted By Andy C
Oh, it's coming back all right. We've got the...

Oh, it's coming back all right. We've got the final harsh stormwinds to withstand between now and the end of the month, but for us, that's the virus's last, desperate attack.
It's doomed. We're...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 01:40 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,021
Posted By Andy C
That's useful extra information - and adds an...

That's useful extra information - and adds an extra push towards aprilshack being asymptomatic. Do you know if the sensitivity issue is poor for pre-symptomatic people as well as fully asymptomatic...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 01:20 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,021
Posted By Andy C
If you have no symptoms by now, that's got to be...

If you have no symptoms by now, that's got to be a positive sign. You may be fortunate enough to be in the 20% who never get any symptoms!

On the tests: either the PCR is a false positive, or the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 14 Jan 21, 12:08 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
:blush: I'm going to need help getting my...

:blush:
I'm going to need help getting my swollen head through the door - thanks for the compliments, all.

My take on it is that Tier 4 alone is insufficient to prevent slow increase (as seen by...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 13 Jan 21, 09:42 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 782
Posted By Andy C
They’re looking at nasal spray possibilities. I...

They’re looking at nasal spray possibilities. I have seen experts suggesting that some of the vaccines might be even more efficacious when sprayed up the nose, believe it or not.
...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 13 Jan 21, 05:44 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
Deaths My morbid prediction from yesterday came...

Deaths
My morbid prediction from yesterday came true immediately. A horrible number: 1564 reported today.

Assigning those to date of death (declared so far), we passed 850 per day (or we will...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 13 Jan 21, 02:22 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 1,862
Posted By Andy C
If I had to guess, I'd suggest that it could be...

If I had to guess, I'd suggest that it could be because the only vaccine supply that is known and certain at the moment is that coming from Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

Johnson & Johnson, despite the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 13 Jan 21, 09:56 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 2,182
Posted By Andy C
With 600 done so far, and concentrating on the...

With 600 done so far, and concentrating on the most vulnerable, then you, personally:

- Have probably saved somewhere between 50 and 100 lives
- Have probably averted the better part of 300...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 13 Jan 21, 09:47 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 1,862
Posted By Andy C
Johnson and Johnson one-shot vaccine nearing trial completion

Another vaccine - which is being trialled as a one-shot vaccine and needs no special logistics - is finalising data from preliminary trials for submission by the 21st of January.

The CEO seems...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 11:04 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
When I was a little nipper - I must have been no...

When I was a little nipper - I must have been no more than four or so - I remember taking a car trip lying on the parcel shelf at the back of the car because it was so full up.

I thought it was...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 07:51 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
A potential therapeutic vaccine for multiple...

A potential therapeutic vaccine for multiple sclerosis...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 07:04 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
Ah. Sorry; I don’t tend to look too closely at...

Ah.
Sorry; I don’t tend to look too closely at the deaths by date reported due to the weekend and weekday variation (at least not since I quit trying to model the weekly variation itself).

It...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 06:27 PM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
I think these updates of mine have been getting...

I think these updates of mine have been getting longer and longer; I'll strive for more conciseness.

Deaths
1243 declared today. A new record.
Edit - as Pinchy points out, not quite the record...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 04:35 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
The difference between the measures isn't much...

The difference between the measures isn't much more than simply smoothing, in effect. The average death rate over the previous five years gives the baseline from which you measure an increase or...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 03:22 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
As an aside, I have a suspicion that the...

As an aside, I have a suspicion that the mortality figure improvement will continue over the next decade after covid is over (and even with it taken out of the comparison altogether). The mRNA...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 03:20 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
This graph from Ed takes into account the way...

This graph from Ed takes into account the way that we've steadily improved year on year, with better medical knowledge, working practices (or, as Tom points out, simply avoiding very unsafe working...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 03:12 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
That too. We all joke about Health and Safety,...

That too. We all joke about Health and Safety, but many of us can remember the days when it was extremely unsafe.

Road deaths are also way, way down since the Seventies, even with far more miles...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 03:09 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
Yup. Looking at that graph above, heart...

Yup.

Looking at that graph above, heart disease death rate nearly halved in that time.
About a quarter to a third of all deaths are by heart disease.

The story with cancer is similar, and that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 03:07 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
An incremental aggregation of improvements. ...

An incremental aggregation of improvements.

Between 1995-1994 and 2010-2014, the survival rates for many cancers literally doubled.

Heart disease is the other great killer.

This is how it's...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 03:03 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,989
Posted By Andy C
It is staggering to consider how our medical...

It is staggering to consider how our medical capabilities have improved the mortality figures over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

I mean, up until 1966, the most common age to be put on...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 12 Jan 21, 10:51 AM
Replies: 2,685
Views: 181,013
Posted By Andy C
That's an excellent point. They're considerably...

That's an excellent point. They're considerably more likely to be stuck in an office or working in a supermarket or on public transport. This has been a factor throughout, but I agree that it's...
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