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Search: Posts Made By: Andy C
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 08:08 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
"We should be at about 50% of the level of excess...

"We should be at about 50% of the level of excess deaths from March/April"

Why?
Firstly - we don't now how many positive cases we had at the time. We had nowhere near the testing capacity we...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum Yesterday, 07:56 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,015
Posted By Andy C
They will be running more trials to confirm that...

They will be running more trials to confirm that finding, but as the standard dose one, although not quite as effective, more than passes the efficacy criteria, it shouldnít hold them up.

There...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 4 Dec 20, 07:37 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
504 deaths announced today against my prediction...

504 deaths announced today against my prediction of 461.
Obviously Iím disappointed it was higher (first time Iíve underpredicted them), but itís still within the +/-50 variation and still doesnít...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 4 Dec 20, 07:21 PM
Replies: 172
Views: 11,087
Posted By Andy C
On the positive stories - I think itís probably...

On the positive stories - I think itís probably because the best positive is to be back to where you started, and the (fortunately rare) negatives are real tragedies.

Letís face it, if any vaccine...
Forum: General Chat 4 Dec 20, 06:26 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 1,128
Posted By Andy C
Also - why would they need to implant us with a...

Also - why would they need to implant us with a tracker?

Virtually everyone goes everywhere with their mobile phones, anyway, and those already have a tracker in them.

Surely it'd be far...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 4 Dec 20, 06:06 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,015
Posted By Andy C
I'm hoping that it'll be within a week or two as...

I'm hoping that it'll be within a week or two as well.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 4 Dec 20, 06:05 PM
Replies: 172
Views: 11,087
Posted By Andy C
I know it can feel as if people are leaping on...

I know it can feel as if people are leaping on you when you're in such a minority.

I do think one of the triggers is that everyone is very much aware that if enough people choose not to take one...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 4 Dec 20, 10:22 AM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
I've only extrapolated out to late January, and...

I've only extrapolated out to late January, and continued to use an optimistic reduction in deaths continuing.
On the one hand, Tiers aren't as good as reducing deaths as the soft lockdown.

On...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 3 Dec 20, 05:35 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
3 Dec: Actual number announced: 414. Ever...

3 Dec: Actual number announced: 414.

Ever been delighted to be wrong? I am.
And I thought I was being reasonably optimistic about the reduction!

Of course, it could just be a big fluctuation...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 3 Dec 20, 05:09 PM
Replies: 86
Views: 5,729
Posted By Andy C
Well, we have some indication as to the different...

Well, we have some indication as to the different timelines:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/02/u-k-approves-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-putting-pressure-on-fda/

Unlike regulators in the U.K. and...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 3 Dec 20, 08:22 AM
Replies: 172
Views: 11,087
Posted By Andy C
It's just stating facts. To reduce the...

It's just stating facts.

To reduce the restrictions, we need the virus to drop away.
For the virus to drop away, we need vaccine-generated herd immunity.
The longer it takes to get to that, the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 3 Dec 20, 08:15 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 2,130
Posted By Andy C
I'm sorry to hear it. Good luck, and hoping for...

I'm sorry to hear it. Good luck, and hoping for a very mild case.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 3 Dec 20, 08:15 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 777
Posted By Andy C
Q1: Although it has not been proven at the...

Q1: Although it has not been proven at the moment, what is known about vaccine-generated immunity strongly implies it would be better at preventing infectious spread than infection-acquired immunity...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 2 Dec 20, 06:48 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
From Saturday 29th August to Friday the 4th of...

From Saturday 29th August to Friday the 4th of September, we had six days of single figure deaths

Saturday 29th August - 5
Sunday 30th August - 6
Monday 31st August - 9
Tuesday 1st September -...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 2 Dec 20, 05:52 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
Remember, there will still be a spike next...

Remember, there will still be a spike next Tuesday/Wednesday as well. I've plugged in the latest hospitalisation figures and death figures and got the next three days after that (and bear in mind...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 2 Dec 20, 05:19 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
648 announced. I'll take that. Cases at 16,000...

648 announced. I'll take that.
Cases at 16,000 or so, but the drift downwards in the hospital admissions average is continuing.

(Because I simply have to try to model and forecast things, I made...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 2 Dec 20, 01:30 PM
Replies: 93
Views: 7,062
Posted By Andy C
The wheels are now fully in motion. ...

The wheels are now fully in motion.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1334105430839209987

"Latest detail from German BioNTech briefing: doses for UK "currently being packed" by Pfizer in...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 2 Dec 20, 11:24 AM
Replies: 93
Views: 7,062
Posted By Andy C
I know what you mean, but, after all, it's not...

I know what you mean, but, after all, it's not for him, but to provide an example and demonstrate confidence.
If he encourages uptake by doing it, I'm all for it.
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 2 Dec 20, 11:23 AM
Replies: 172
Views: 11,087
Posted By Andy C
Absolutely. Having followed it closely, the...

Absolutely.

Having followed it closely, the amount of safety testing that's been done is immense. Frankly, if things had been even worse (like 10% fatality rates, or as infectious as measles) and...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 1 Dec 20, 05:26 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
Deaths are definitely still looking encouraging. ...

Deaths are definitely still looking encouraging. Wednesdays have been higher than Tuesdays recently, so lower 600s will still be encouraging tomorrow.

No update on hospital admissions yet.
...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 1 Dec 20, 03:31 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 1,418
Posted By Andy C
The full information isn't yet available. We...

The full information isn't yet available.

We know all of them do great in reducing/avoiding symptomatic illnesses. We know that at least one (the AstraZeneca/Oxford one) reduces or avoids...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 1 Dec 20, 11:13 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,077
Posted By Andy C
Oh, God, yes. The main point for us to take...

Oh, God, yes.
The main point for us to take away is that the actual extra number of deaths is going to be a lot higher than the current figures being reported, due to the various issues the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 1 Dec 20, 10:41 AM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
On first glance (I may well be missing key...

On first glance (I may well be missing key information), my instinct is that it shows that Tier 3 can work.
I've seen a scatter graph showing that while it usually works, it sometimes doesn't, but...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 1 Dec 20, 10:36 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,077
Posted By Andy C
Scary stuff. It does show just how good our ONS...

Scary stuff.
It does show just how good our ONS are - given that excess deaths usually wiggle around an average, our stats line up fairly well.

Other countries don't necessarily do so well.
...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 30 Nov 20, 05:50 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,830
Posted By Andy C
It shouldn't take too long, but all the various...

It shouldn't take too long, but all the various regulatory boards are justifiably paranoid about any potential problems. If it turns out that one of them causes, say, seizures in very rare cases...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 30 Nov 20, 05:33 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
And hospital admission in England down to 1072. ...

And hospital admission in England down to 1072.
That's the lowest in nearly five weeks.

Both better than I'd hoped. The decline is faster than I'd expected. It's also an indication that the...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 30 Nov 20, 04:55 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,830
Posted By Andy C
No idea how long approval will take. On...

No idea how long approval will take.
On vulnerable and cancer patients - I havenít read the Moderna trial protocol, but I did read the Pfizer one, which is also an mRNA vaccine, and their trial...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 30 Nov 20, 02:15 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,830
Posted By Andy C
Moderna vaccine: 100% protection against serious illness indicated

Further information about Moderna's vaccine has shown that there were zero cases of severe illness in the vaccinated group (compared with 30 in the placebo group)
...
Forum: General Chat 30 Nov 20, 01:17 PM
Replies: 59
Views: 1,763
Posted By Andy C
On lithium extraction, although I've got no...

On lithium extraction, although I've got no background in the matter, this seemed interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201124-how-geothermal-lithium-could-revolutionise-green-energy
...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 30 Nov 20, 12:04 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,839
Posted By Andy C
Wow, thanks guys. I'm afraid I'm not...

Wow, thanks guys.

I'm afraid I'm not Spiegelhalter (although I do have a book by him: The Art of Statistics, which is very approachable and useful).

It feels a bit self-indulgent and arrogant...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 29 Nov 20, 06:35 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
215 announced today. Lower than I'd anticipated,...

215 announced today. Lower than I'd anticipated, which is good - as long as tomorrow is also lower two hundreds or below and I'd not just mixed up the two days.

Hospital admissions in England...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 29 Nov 20, 09:43 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,839
Posted By Andy C
Thanks guys, itís appreciated. Thereís also...

Thanks guys, itís appreciated.

Thereís also the way that negative results can end up being the most exciting. I mean, suppose it turned out that these cross-reactive T-cells did indeed provide a...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 28 Nov 20, 11:40 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,839
Posted By Andy C
No worries; I can go way too deep, sometimes. ...

No worries; I can go way too deep, sometimes.

Iíll try again:

- These T-cells from colds that people have been going on about donít seem to protect against infection, unfortunately.

- They...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 28 Nov 20, 11:23 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 2,580
Posted By Andy C
Theyíve seen signs that the virus might, in some...

Theyíve seen signs that the virus might, in some cases where it has migrated to the gastro-intestinal system, hang around replicating in the lower intestine for upwards of ninety days. Itís not...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 28 Nov 20, 10:33 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,839
Posted By Andy C
Thereís been loads of heat and light and...

Thereís been loads of heat and light and discussion on cross-reactive T-cells.

Theyíre still finding out more and more on them, and now we have more information.

I personally was of the opinion...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 28 Nov 20, 09:46 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,839
Posted By Andy C
Righto. Our immune systems have a number of...

Righto.

Our immune systems have a number of components.

- Antibodies grab hold of viruses and gum them up so they canít do anything
- T-cells go in and kill viruses that have got in
-...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 28 Nov 20, 07:34 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,839
Posted By Andy C
Following up on this one, and illustrating the...

Following up on this one, and illustrating the principle that there are invariably a sweep of results while investigating new phenomena (and hopeful for me with my cold), I've come across one that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 28 Nov 20, 05:15 PM
Replies: 1,989
Views: 120,332
Posted By Andy C
479 deaths announced today - in line with what...

479 deaths announced today - in line with what we'd expect on a Saturday announcement with the slight reduction in hospitalisations ten days earlier.

With the weekend effect, we'll probably be...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 28 Nov 20, 05:14 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 2,309
Posted By Andy C
The median age for death from cancer is over 75. ...

The median age for death from cancer is over 75.

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/mortality/age

The median age for cancer affecting people is below that...
Forum: Current Virus Issue Forum 27 Nov 20, 07:12 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 1,377
Posted By Andy C
Itís possible that events since then have changed...

Itís possible that events since then have changed the understanding of worldwide pandemics in action from the more theoretical understanding beforehand.
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