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Old 30 Mar 20, 12:04 AM  
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sunseeker100
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Originally Posted by neilhd View Post
I agree. A daily statistic of deaths is pretty meaningless. What I'd wish they would announce is:

Daily deaths WITH Covid-19 (this is what they do now).
Daily deaths where Covid-19 is actually the main cause of death.
Daily deaths of other respiratory diseases/illnesses.
Daily number of excess deaths over what they would normally expect to see this time of year.
Last weekend I decided I needed to find some of these stats as I donít like the constant news reporting of each death without any other information. I like data (sad I know!) so knew there would be plenty of info out there.

Took me a while and some data I wanted wasnít easily found, but on the Office of National Statistics website I found the following...

weekly deaths U.K. 2020 - 14,000 in early Jan then down to average of 10,500 now which looking at previous years is no different
Weekly deaths from respiratory illness (not recorded as flu or a virus but probably pneumonia or similar) - 2000+ in early Jan then down to average 1,400 now.

Iím guessing the higher numbers were seasonal as each winter sees higher numbers.

At the moment they are only releasing numbers of those who died having a positive test for Covid-19, Iím assuming only an autopsy would try and determine if the virus contributed to a death and even then, might not be able to say with any certainty.

We arenít likely to know for maybe a year at least what the actual figures mean when calculated across the world, maybe the overall death rate for this year will end up being low, or much higher than other years. All weíre getting now is each death announced and if that happened all the way through winter any year weíd be horrified and afraid. Iím not dismissing the virus, just explaining why I think we should look deeper than just what the media push out. This info and lots more is available so why arenít journalists publishing it?

I tend to go on about causation and correlation a lot as reporting data irresponsibly really winds me up! An interesting website which explains this really well is linked below - itís tongue in cheek, but all accurate just reported in a certain way.

tylervigen/spurious-correlations
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