Potential tropical storm Sara

[Mr Andy]

Might not amount to anything yet but I’ve just been having a look as I fly Monday but there’s an 80% chance Sara forms in the Western Caribbean by the weekend.

Some models then show it going towards southern Florida by next Wednesday or Thursday, although most agree it could weaken due to colder water temps nearer Florida.

I’m a bit of a weather geek so will keep people informed 🤓

And FYI this post isn’t to panic anyone. An official storm hasn’t even formed yet but just posting as could be something that affects southern Florida next week.

[scooby99]

We’re out here now & all the forecasters are keeping an eye on it.

As you say, too early to say how/if it’s going to develop; so many variables (low pressure, high pressure, wind shear, water temps…….) will determine that.

Just saw a forecaster say it’s ‘likely’ to develop into a hurricane in the next few days but unable to say what it’s path will be at the moment or if it will affect Florida.
Any turn towards Florida would likely see it arrive in the middle of next week.
🤞🤞

[Mr Andy]

Originally Posted by scooby99

We’re out here now & all the forecasters are keeping an eye on it.

As you say, too early to say how/if it’s going to develop; so many variables (low pressure, high pressure, wind shear, water temps…….) will determine that.

Just saw a forecaster say it’s ‘likely’ to develop into a hurricane in the next few days but unable to say what it’s path will be at the moment or if it will affect Florida.
Any turn towards Florida would likely see it arrive in the middle of next week.
🤞🤞

See more...

Yeah just checked and all models
Agree it’s likely to become a hurricane but far too early to tell
The path yet!

[force ten]

lnvest 99L is still classed as a tropical depression but they do think it will develop over the next few days and some say it could become a major hurricane by earl next week

we will have to wait and see what invest 99 does over the next few days but as said the cooler temps in the gulf should stop the storm developing as much as it would in the height of summer

[force ten]

Originally Posted by Mr Andy

Yeah just checked and all models
Agree it’s likely to become a hurricane but far too early to tell
The path yet!

See more...

all of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members seem to think that Florida will see some impact of this system by the middle to end of next week

we will have to see how it develops but they do say the cold trough heading south west over Texas and Mississippi will push this depression west towards Florida

[pjc]

We are out on Tuesday. Just off to watch, Orlando local weather channel.🤨

[Mr Andy]

Just watched an update and it seems now it’s highly unlikely to hit Florida as a hurricane or even a tropical storm as the storm is due to go over land in Mexico/Belize significantly weakening it.

It’s still likely to make its way to Florida by Wednesday next week though so likely to be a fairly wet day next Wednesday but thankfully not as another hurricane

[force ten]

still way to early to call for certain

[force ten]

tropical storm Sara has weakened a lot as it passed over Guatemala and Belize and was downgraded to the remnants of TS Sara and it is just about to cross Mexico and out into the Gulf

the remnants of Sara are moving toward the northwest at about 13 mph

lets hope the waters in the Gulf are now cool enough and don't allow the storm to start regaining strength and Sara just blows itself out in the Gulf