If Thomas Cook do fold then what is the future?

[Dinglebert]

I see from the BBC that some holiday makers are being held "captive" in the hotel until they pay the money the hotel believe Thomas Cook owe them. I somewhat suspect there will be more of that.

While the loss of a holiday is of course dreadful those those involved.
The fallout for hotels etc overseas is also potentially life changing. For those TC exclusive hotels with no guests they may very well go under and close.

My question is this. Thomas Cook clearly provide holidays for people who wish them. They fill planes seats and hotels abroad 52 weeks a year. If they do go under then the requirement for these holidays doesn't go away.

Who fills that gap? Less holidays available means increased prices. Can't see a new company coming in cold to take on flights and hotel beds. Do TUI expand in uncertain times? Does Jet2 expand their business and if they do could they at least upgrade the search function on their website, its currently rubbish.

[Tinkerbell]

Originally Posted by Chair1519

I see from the BBC that some holiday makers are being held "captive" in the hotel until they pay the money the hotel believe Thomas Cook owe them. I somewhat suspect there will be more of that.

While the loss of a holiday is of course dreadful those those involved.
The fallout for hotels etc overseas is also potentially life changing. For those TC exclusive hotels with no guests they may very well go under and close.

My question is this. Thomas Cook clearly provide holidays for people who wish them. They fill planes seats and hotels abroad 52 weeks a year. If they do go under then the requirement for these holidays doesn't go away.

Who fills that gap? Less holidays available means increased prices. Can't see a new company coming in cold to take on flights and hotel beds. Do TUI expand in uncertain times? Does Jet2 expand their business and if they do could they at least upgrade the search function on their website, its currently rubbish.

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I think the issue is simply that Thomas cook do not fill planes and hotels 52 weeks a year, that’s why they are in financial doodah.

Prices will rise, and as the thread on the planning page has discovered flight costs have already gone up in light of the current news.

[RachaelC]

Originally Posted by Tinkerbell

I think the issue is simply that Thomas cook do not fill planes and hotels 52 weeks a year, that’s why they are in financial doodah.

Prices will rise, and as the thread on the planning page has discovered flight costs have already gone up in light of the current news.

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Yes, that and the exchange rate could get quite painful.

I’m still trying to keep positive that they’ve found a solution today. I feel quite emotional about it, I know lots of people who are employed by them 😢

[cornishfrogboy]

There have been several threads on the forum lately about the affordability of Orlando vacations with many asserting that tipping point has been reached with Orlando generally and Disney in particular. Sticking to the title of the forum and the main interests of DIBBERS, then yes, I feel it inevitable that prices will rise in the short term, whilst eventually levelling out to what the market will bear in the medium. I was outpriced several years ago (won’t pay, rather than cannot pay for direct flights in to Orlando).

In recent years, I have been dual centring within the USA as flights to many other USA locations during School Hols remain pretty stable throughout the year, particularly those that are off the beaten track for UK tourists.
Most of the places that I look at, I.e Boston, NY, Washington DC, Philly, West Coast etc etc are not serviced by Thomas Cook in any case and therefore I anticipate no change in pricing. They are also very much more affordable.
Internal flights, booked separately are also unaffected by the woes of TC and therefore I expect no change in pricing for these either. ( I have never paid more than Ł90pp, Easter or Summer).
I anticipate that many DIBBERS will have to show greater imagination in planning and think laterally in order to find an acceptable budget for their Orlando fix... or pay through the nose.

It may be a question of killing more birds with a single stone, I.e London to Boston for a few days (airport very close to town centre), then an internal into MCO, Tampa or similar. Coming back, then maybe Orlando to Detroit for a couple of days, then home to London. I say a couple of days for a reason(s).
1. Many people already see it as an opportunity to see somewhere different.
2. A few days protects you against delay ‘knock ons’ with your first flight of 2.

This may not suit everybody, but has worked brilliantly for us over recent years (see my signature). Orlando may have to be part of the whole.. rather than the whole in order to save money. For us, it has worked so well and enlightened us to such an extent that after this summer, Orlando will not form any part of the whole.

I honestly believe that for people like me, the demise of TC will affect me not one iota. My London SFO and then return from Vancouver during the Easter hols has cost me Ł395 , direct with BA. (I will be flying from S L Obispo to Seattle with hire cars either side ). In a weeks time, I expect those same flights to be..Ł395.

In summary (and only for DIBBER interests), I think that the very budget conscious will still get there, but have to use imagination in order to achieve it at an acceptable price, probably moving towards multi centre vacations.

It is of course speculation and only how I will address things. At this moment in time I am rather more concerned for TC travellers and employees. My heart goes out to them..


Benidorm, Magaluf, Kavos etc may be a different matter with a major player out of the game, but even though I lived for many years within the EU, I do not regard myself as ‘European’ and have no great wish to visit any more.

We must also remember that we are not the only Nationality with a fixation for Orlando. There will be the people of other nations, more than willing to take up the TC slack in accommodation booking.

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by Tinkerbell

I think the issue is simply that Thomas cook do not fill planes and hotels 52 weeks a year, that’s why they are in financial doodah.

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Except they did. TC typically sold Ł9billion worth of holidays to 19 million customers each year. They filled plenty of planes and hotels. Just not enough or at prices that weren’t economically viable.

I expect all the other travel companies will take on a few more customers and, yes, prices may rise.

[400ixl]

Originally Posted by Tinkerbell

I think the issue is simply that Thomas cook do not fill planes and hotels 52 weeks a year, that’s why they are in financial doodah. .

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No holiday company does, they are all very differently profiled over the seasons. Summer will always be a peak where they have the most revenue coming in and winter being a real challenge for cash flow.

It is not debt that puts a company into receivership, its a lack of cash. Which is why Thomas Cook are in the predicament they are now. The cash flow has dropped as they are coming out of peak season.

The fall out may be that fewer companies do deposit now pay at travel and push the burden of financing onto the individual.

[cornishfrogboy]

Perhaps the demise of TC will demonstrate to the uneducated whiners who complain about ‘extortionate prices and profiteering through the school holidays’ , that the year round margins for such operators are small, they lose money during the winter months and that they must operate a year round business.

The Summer pays for the rest of the year and it is customary that wages, aircraft lease fees, slot fees, etc etc are generally paid year round .

[thefergies]

Originally Posted by cornishfrogboy

Perhaps the demise of TC will demonstrate to the uneducated whiners who complain about ‘extortionate prices and profiteering through the school holidays’ , that the year round margins for such operators are small, they lose money during the winter months and that they must operate a year round business.

The Summer pays for the rest of the year and it is customary that wages, aircraft lease fees, slot fees, etc etc are generally paid year round .

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I have been asking myself last couple of days whether there has been any navel-gazing going on amongst Dibbers as to whether we feel Consumers and our buying habits are in any way a factor in the likes of TC, Debenhams, HOF etc etc. And I am not asking this from moral high ground, I am including myself in the question. Nor am I saying these companies are perfectly managed. However, there's no shortage of trumpet-blowing when we get a deal or a discount, we then share that deal or we find a price glitch so we post it on here pronto so others can get it before the supplier notices etc etc. Same with retail - see something in a shop but I'll wait until it's reduced then I'll buy it or I'll go home and see if it's available cheaper on Amazon. Quidco, Top Cashback, Groupon etc etc etc. Massive increase in consumer complaints (often justified but many in my view and my experience opportunistic with possible compensation in mind) with associated increase in compensation payments and costs to hire complaint staff. And then the cost of staff to manage the massive increase in regulation in recent times.
It just seems inevitable that relentless forcing down of prices, seeking of discounts and deals, increased complaints and regulation was going to squeeze certain suppliers. You can argue that it's supply and demand, market forces, consumer protection etc but I just think it's all cranked up a level and we are now starting to see the impact in SOME of what is happening. It's not THE cause but is it a factor?

[thatdavieguy]

All eyes will be on Norwegian now, they could be dragged toward the abyss now

[duchy]

Thomas Cook are responsible for their own demise.
Poor policies , not reacting to the influence of the Internet on the market, refusal to train staff adequately , medium term woeful management believed the Reputation of Thomas Cook was enough ... and simply wasn't.
You cannot join the race to the bottom and keep your good reputation. It may take time for awareness to filter down to customers but eventually it comes home to roost.

A friend went into TC this week as she was due to fly this Thursday and was assured by a member of staff they absolutely were not going bust and her holiday was safe ... and to please spread the word on social media.
I was trying to explain to my friend today that it was very likely that is what she was told by management and herself believed it rather than was cynically lying.

It stinks