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Old 30 Sep 20, 10:54 PM  
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#541
tspill
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Originally Posted by myaquarium View Post
We went into lockdown when the whole country fell into line. The streets were empty transport is still empty people wore masks. The numbers dropped down which allowed the country to come out of lockdown. The people had done their bit.
However the virus had not gone away and it probably never will. So people are calling for another lockdown. Rocking the economy plunging people into a lonely miserable winter. This has the felling of Groundhog Day. We have no date of vaccines and no proof they will eradicate Covid. So how many more lockdowns before we realise we have destroyed the economy and millions of lives thru redundancies mental illness and curable deaths.
For every person contracting Covid in the uk in 2020 there is one person forecast to be made redundant in 2020. ft/content/9d8875be-...7-4cb643cf8999
Thatís 500,000 people to have been tested positive and most of working age have and will recover, and 500000 redundancies forecast who will struggle for years to get over unemployment, lose their homes or worse.
Collateral damage worth paying year after year.
And that is exactly what is impossible about the situation. There is no right answer.
Those making the decisions have to balance the impact of Covid vs other illnesses vs economy vs education.
Depending on our personal perspective and circumstances, we will each prefer a different balance.
Those with young kids want to see education.
Those with other illnesses will want to get appointments and treatments.
Those with businesses will want to see the economy as the priority.
For others they want fixing CV19 the priority.
And I am sure there are many other facets on top of these that drive each of our priority opinions.

Not everything can be fixed.

No matter what is done - there will be some in agreement and many not and preferring other priorities.

The decision makers are in a total no win situation. There is nothing they can do that will please or help everyone; or even a majority.

Edited at 11:15 PM.
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Old 30 Sep 20, 11:00 PM  
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#542
tspill
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Originally Posted by linnite View Post
Sure it is, but if the govt announced that the number of cases was doubling every 50 years, that would be exponential, but maybe not very worrying.

These graphs show that the rate isn't doubling every 7 days.
You are right. So what really matters is how this graph pans out = there rate of the exponential growth. But even with what is shown in the yellow bars - it doesnt look good at all for the coming months if the exponential path continues as it is (it isnt doubling in 50 years; nor every week. It looks more like 2 weeks). I accept that we need maybe another month to give the graph trajectory more or less confidence.

The problem with exponential is that if there is nothing to put the brakes on it, it gets worse faster as time goes on. Thats frightening with a 2 week doubling - or anything close to that.

Edited at 11:22 PM.
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Old 30 Sep 20, 11:56 PM  
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#543
Pinchy
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Originally Posted by myaquarium View Post
We went into lockdown when the whole country fell into line. The streets were empty transport is still empty people wore masks. The numbers dropped down which allowed the country to come out of lockdown. The people had done their bit.
However the virus had not gone away and it probably never will. So people are calling for another lockdown. Rocking the economy plunging people into a lonely miserable winter. This has the felling of Groundhog Day. We have no date of vaccines and no proof they will eradicate Covid. So how many more lockdowns before we realise we have destroyed the economy and millions of lives thru redundancies mental illness and curable deaths.
For every person contracting Covid in the uk in 2020 there is one person forecast to be made redundant in 2020. ft/content/9d8875be-...7-4cb643cf8999
Thatís 500,000 people to have been tested positive and most of working age have and will recover, and 500000 redundancies forecast who will struggle for years to get over unemployment, lose their homes or worse.
Collateral damage worth paying year after year.
You're not getting it. We have to lockdown if it threatens to overwhelm our health system. There is no alternative. None. So I ask you the question: which is better, to lockdown properly and in a timely way and emerge quicker with lower case numbers or leave it too long and have higher numbers after a similar length lockdown?
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Old 1 Oct 20, 06:32 AM  
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#544
YorkshireT
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Whitty Ďscare chartí shown last week vs reality.
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Old 1 Oct 20, 06:34 AM  
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#545
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Originally Posted by YorkshireT View Post
Whitty Ďscare chartí shown last week vs reality.
Interesting to overlay the mental illness chart.

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Old 1 Oct 20, 06:37 AM  
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#546
YorkshireT
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Originally Posted by disney332 View Post
Interesting to overlay the mental illness chart.

Disney332
Like many other Ďside effectsí that wonít be measurable for years, if ever, so we can all forget about that.
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Old 1 Oct 20, 06:37 AM  
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Originally Posted by Pinchy View Post
You're not getting it. We have to lockdown if it threatens to overwhelm our health system. There is no alternative. None. So I ask you the question: which is better, to lockdown properly and in a timely way and emerge quicker with lower case numbers or leave it too long and have higher numbers after a similar length lockdown?
No, more targeted lockdown. The main demographic who get the virus and then are hospitalised should be targeted with very stringent lockdown. So anyone on the government shielding list can not leave their homes under any circumstance other than to see the gp but as a lot are only do phone consultation they donít have to leave. They are not allowed to have any family members in their homes. Absolutely no visitors to care homes or nursing homes and residents can not mix with each other. All food shopping will be left on the doorstep and residents will have to get it in themselves.
For rule breakers there will be a £1000 fine for a first offence or 6 months in prison.
There will still be hospital admission but this will be with the fitter and healthy members of society who will stand a better chance of survival. There will also be deaths but at a vastly reduced amount.
This is total poppy cock but if you wanted what you claim this is the way to go and not a total lockdown of the country.

Edited at 07:00 AM.
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Old 1 Oct 20, 06:43 AM  
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#548
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Originally Posted by YorkshireT View Post
Whitty Ďscare chartí shown last week vs reality.
Yt you do realise after 2 weeks of their local lockdown and their numbers bearing nothing like reality they will just come out and say see we where right this has kept the numbers down.
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Old 1 Oct 20, 07:07 AM  
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Labour says 3m jobs will go over the next few months and a separate study shows 37% of managers are now planning redundancies.
Vaccine canít come quick enough!
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Old 1 Oct 20, 07:35 AM  
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I was quite angry at the time about the Whitty and Vallance scare chart. Not because it was so obviously ridiculous, but in that they single handedly gave a green light to all the conspiracy theorists, anti vaxers and others to ignore everything. Basically they severely damaged their own credibility. Funny thing is I donít think they believed it themselves and were maybe cajoled into it, but when you treat the public as daft with attempts to scare them into submission with incorrect claims, you reap what you sow.
I bet for months to come we now hear people who ignore rules quoting that chart and simply saying Whitty and Valance donít know what they are talking about.
Thereís already senior people calling it a sacking offence.
I donít doubt the expertise of these two but this was a terrible idea.
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