Crunching the numbers

[orlandoamber]

We have been looking at potentially buying into DVC for a few weeks now, so I’ve done quite a lot of research already, and have a few spreadsheets on the go...

We were originally looking at 200 points at SSR to get us 2 weeks every 18 months. So we’d be banking and borrowing half the points to essentially give us 300 points per trip. I think this is potentially too many though (as a starting point haha) as we’d be happy staying at SSR if we couldn’t get anywhere else at 7 months as we love the proximity to Disney Springs, and would like to stay in all the DVC studios at some point, so I’d be quite happy taking what we could get each time and maybe doing some split stays. For example, 7 nights SSR and 7 nights elsewhere. Or even 10/4 if it was easier to get 4 nights somewhere else. I was therefore thinking about getting around 160 points instead, reducing the annual dues and giving us 240 points for each trip (every 18 months), or if we stayed at somewhere like OKW, we could occasionally do trips more often. Does this sound like a good plan?

We are currently just two adults but will probably have children in the next 5-10 years (we would probably therefore need to add points and non-DVC holidays would become more expensive anyway, but it’s all relative I guess).

Anyway, I think I’ve probably been doing my sums a little differently to others as we’d usually only stay at Disney on free DDP as the prices are rather extortionate otherwise, so these holidays (and thus the prices I have saved from previous research) include tickets. As the free DDP is something we find quite valuable, what I have done is used the prices we noted down for 14 nights in AKL and Yacht Club for 2021 (pre-covid) at what I believe to be rack rate, and then subtracted £469pp for 14 day tickets and £68pppn for DDP (I think that’s about right), as we’d be ‘losing’ those with DVC and would have to pay for food ourselves. I wanted the comparison to be as clear as it could for our circumstances and I think this calculation allows for that, as by doing this we just have a comparison of room vs room (which of course would be higher during non-free dining times, but I’m not looking at that yet). I’m well aware Disney could remove the free dining offer at any point, like presently, which would only make DVC more valuable as WDW rooms would be more expensive us when having to pay for food on top. I hope you’re all still with me

I think our approx initial DVC outlay will be around £13,000 based on resale contracts I’ve seen. There would then of course be the annual dues, which seem to go up on average around 3% per year. I have therefore written out the cost of the dues in £ at today’s exchange rate (I know this can change but I’d rather have something to look at based on this at least - pounds are easier for me to process than dollars!) up to 2052. We end up with dues of approximately £861 2021 up to £2147 in 2052 (I realise now the contracts expire 2054 not 2052, but the calculations should still work there abouts!).

That’s a total DVC outlay of approximately £58,000, dependant on exchange rate.

Now, how much would you imagine WDW increase their hotel prices by each year? I guessed at 5% but I feel like I must be wrong (too high) as based on my quote for Yacht Club for 14 nights (minus the DDP and tickets cost I mentioned above), by 2052 this will have increased from £3864 2021 to £13809 by 2052 Surely that can’t be right/I’m doing something wrong?! It’s a similar story for AKL which is £2897 2022 up to £11361 2050. Essentially, with a vision of going to AKL one year, followed by Yacht Club, then back to AKL, etc., from 2022 to 2052, plus 5 nights at Aulani and 5 nights at GCH next year which we could cover by renting DVC points if we’re not owners (although no hopes of getting GCH!), this would be a grand total expenditure of £119,653 over 32 years.

Is this wrong or is becoming DVC members genuinely saving us this much? I have the break even point around 10 years.

Edit: Just looked again and I’d actually only added up the hotel costs for 15 trips, when going every 18 months would be 20 over the 30 year period, so I think it’s actually even a little more favourable.

[Guest]

I would normally agree with your assessment of a 5% compound increase on hotel rooms, but my calculations vs 2021 figures are coming out significantly lower. I am wondering if Disney haven’t increased prices as much for 2021.

I do know that prices have gone up so much that I struggle to justify the cash room costs. We paid £145 per night including free dining for a studio at SSR in 2014. I don’t have numbers, but POR was definitely cheaper even with 30% off SSR. I paid £188 per night including free QS dining for POR in 2019. It was around £230 per night for a “5th sleeper” room at POR in 2020 (previously the same price as 2 queen bed rooms). My Contemporary booking last year was a very good deal at £295 per night with free dining. The same room is over £500 per night with no offers in 2021.

I would recommend budgeting around the amount you are willing to pay for accommodation. Personally I cap out at around £200 per night, so there is no point in assuming that I would continue to stay on site without DVC or free dining. There are plenty of other places around within that budget. The discussion then becomes whether you would prefer to pre pay to stay on site, or pay as you go but accept that you will almost certainly be priced out in the future.

I was very happy to have our DVC contracts and bought a second one in November. I’m not sure that I would recommend buying right now though because it’s not clear when you would actually be able to use your points. There is going to be a struggle for studio availability for a while after people start going back in earnest. We have lost 3 months worth of points use but the majority of those points remain within the system. I have gone from heavily borrowing to banking 200 points and there will be a lot of people a lot worse off than me.

[orlandoamber]

Originally Posted by Hollie04

I would normally agree with your assessment of a 5% compound increase on hotel rooms, but my calculations vs 2021 figures are coming out significantly lower. I am wondering if Disney haven’t increased prices as much for 2021.

I do know that prices have gone up so much that I struggle to justify the cash room costs. We paid £145 per night including free dining for a studio at SSR in 2014. I don’t have numbers, but POR was definitely cheaper even with 30% off SSR. I paid £188 per night including free QS dining for POR in 2019. It was around £230 per night for a “5th sleeper” room at POR in 2020 (previously the same price as 2 queen bed rooms). My Contemporary booking last year was a very good deal at £295 per night with free dining. The same room is over £500 per night with no offers in 2021.

I would recommend budgeting around the amount you are willing to pay for accommodation. Personally I cap out at around £200 per night, so there is no point in assuming that I would continue to stay on site without DVC or free dining. There are plenty of other places around within that budget. The discussion then becomes whether you would prefer to pre pay to stay on site, or pay as you go but accept that you will almost certainly be priced out in the future.

I was very happy to have our DVC contracts and bought a second one in November. I’m not sure that I would recommend buying right now though because it’s not clear when you would actually be able to use your points. There is going to be a struggle for studio availability for a while after people start going back in earnest. We have lost 3 months worth of points use but the majority of those points remain within the system. I have gone from heavily borrowing to banking 200 points and there will be a lot of people a lot worse off than me.

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Thank you for replying

I am also thinking along the lines of being priced out in the future if rooms increase by approx. 5% per year... so DVC seems a good way to ensure onsite (deluxe) accommodation for the long haul.

I agree that now might not necessarily be the best time. I am thinking to make a decision as to whether to buy and then wait for the right deal if we decide to go for it

[Br'er Bear]

The following rack rate links might be useful, but need to add the 12.5% tax and also notice that rates vary during the week, whereas I believe the Disney UK pricing is normally the same for every day of that week.

2018 Walt Disney World Deluxe Resort Rates
wdwinfo/wdwinfo/disn...eluxe-2018.htm

2019 Walt Disney World Deluxe Resort Rates
wdwinfo/wdwinfo/disn...eluxe-2019.htm

2019 Walt Disney World Moderate Resort Rates
wdwinfo/wdwinfo/disn...erate-2019.htm

This is also a good read and compares some 2020 prices against 2019.
disneytouristblog/20...cing-analysis/

Also this site not only shows the percentage annual dues increase over 1-year for each resort but also since each resort opened.
dvcresalemarket/buying/annual-dues/

Break even will vary on resort purchased, the time of year you normally visit and also if a resale contract is loaded.

In some cases break-even could be less than 4-years when not accounting for free dining and discounted rooms.

We're members at OKW and have stayed at all WDW DVC resorts over the years, but that normally results in a split stay when staying at the likes of GFV, BCV, BWV, POLY, CCV etc...

ADDED.
You might already know that points per room are changing in 2021, but if not and you've calculated using the 2020 charts then check out the Dibb's link at https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/dvc...id=8&year=2021

Good luck

[Shooby doo]

Ok Amber I'm going to seize on the "we'd usually on stay at Disney..." & ask yourself where would you stay otherwise? For instance there is no point in comparing DVC to YC if you are more than happy to stay somewhere at £150/night IYKWIM, when you do it that way you quickly realise that the values then become a lot closer. We only paid $67.50/point (SSR) & by my calculations, we about break even at the end of the contract! It's very easy to say "look at what you could have won" & by some extent you are already doing this by comparing AKL/YC when it should be SSR - that aside it still only works if that's where you would have stayed anyway.
We bought going the other way as our family had grown up so just the 2 of us, it's great, we love it but I'm not sure we would repeat it now.If we had only ever stayed at Disney, then I might have slightly different opinion but I do remember going to look at BWV in 2000/01 & not being overly impressed at the size of a studio compared to some of the kids/one bed suites we had been staying in offsite. Suites with full kitchens, separate rooms, separate TVs even So you then look at adding on for 1 beds but that's going to take the same number of points again- 1 bed is approx twice the points per week of a studio.
We have moved offsite a couple of times & I can say that the rooms are on par if not better than any of our DVC stays, especially RPR. Now this year we have a 10/11 split & have Sapphire Falls (which is supposedly as good as RPR just without the Express pass) for £140/night not far off £900 saved on renting the equivalent in DVC points!
To finish, I'm not saying don't buy but advising to consider the way you are doing your calculations & I'm not saying you are doing this but it's very easy to "get the answer we really want" & then rationalise it IYKWIM
SD

[Br'er Bear]

Shooby doo makes a very good point, there are some great resorts offsite and at more reasonable prices.

We've stayed in a few Marriott resorts and had a great time, so good if you're not looking for the benefits of staying on site like ME, free parking or extra hours in the park.

But if you are planning on going back to Disney and the parks year after year and you've discounted renting DVC points then DVC can be a good alternative.

There was a very good contract which JasonErpelding highlighted the other day at https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/sho... php?t=1176336

Those two contracts for 150-OKW points in total would have cost around $19,620 including dues and closing cost.

102-points could be used from 1st Sept 2020 and 150-points from 1st Sept 2021 and every year after up until 2057.

Looking at the 102 points available to use in 2020 use year, you might have consider a 10-night pre-Christmas trip in an OKW studio from 14th Dec using 108-points (borrow 6) and the full Disney room only cost would be around $6,150

When the 144-points becomes available in 2021 that could get you 13-nights from 11th Dec in 2021 using 142-points which would cost around $7,814 if buying from Disney at full room cost.

Therefore those 23-nights could cost through Disney around $13,964 or 250-points.

That's a sizeable amount when considering the initial outlay of $19,619.68.

But also consider 108-points could also get you 10-nights in an OKW studio in Jan 2021 and the full rate at 2020 prices would be a lot lower at around $4,238

While 142-points would also get you 13-nights in an OKW studio in Jan 2022 and the full rate at 2020 prices would be around $5,521.

So those 23-nights could cost through Disney a lot less at $9,757 while still using the same 250-points.

That's a difference of over $4,000 and hopefully highlights that there's not a consistency when comparing points against Disney full room rate and therefore depending where and how you use your points, then breakeven could take longer.

Also, just say you got feed up with Disney then as those OKW contracts ended in 2057 then there's a good chance that in 10-years time you could resell those contracts with 27-years still remaining and see a reasonable return on your initial outlay.

Consider most OKW contracts end in 2042 so there's only 22-years remaining and they are currently fetching in the resale market over $100 per point.

That could mean you've only paid for your dues of around $1,200 pa for up to 13-nights each year in December, so currently less than $100 per night.

Also agree with Hollie04 and would not recommend buying right now and monitor the resale market. Depending on Covid then maybe even wait until Jan when the next dues are payable as that might see even more resale contracts.

Hope I've correctly calculated the above, sorry if there's a mistake and best of luck with your decision.

[YorkshireT]

Guessing prices on hotels is very difficult- and very economy dependent. However, we have seen over blocks of 10-20 years some very large increases in cash prices, far outstripping inflation.
For example, Polynesian in 2003, the US rack rate was $299 at a popular time. By 2013 it should have been, if inflation was just taken into account, $371, but it was actually $562.
I find some resorts and especially bigger rooms ridiculously priced. For example, try pricing up a BLT 1 bed over Xmas- over £1000 a night often. I was actually at the BLT desk on 26 December last year and a guy came in wanting a cash studio. They quoted him $700 a night I think it was- plus tax, plus parking- and he paid it. I was staying in a 1 bed nearly 3 x the size and maybe paying $200 a night in dues cost.
So if you would continue to pay cash, it can be a good deal.
Also something to remember- whilst nothing is guaranteed, there is no person yet who has bought resale and not got a very good chunk of their money back, or indeed made a profit when they have had enough and come to sell. Of course, that will change as we get nearer to end dates.

[orlandoamber]

Originally Posted by Br'er Bear

The following rack rate links might be useful, but need to add the 12.5% tax and also notice that rates vary during the week, whereas I believe the Disney UK pricing is normally the same for every day of that week.

2018 Walt Disney World Deluxe Resort Rates
wdwinfo/wdwinfo/disn...eluxe-2018.htm

2019 Walt Disney World Deluxe Resort Rates
wdwinfo/wdwinfo/disn...eluxe-2019.htm

2019 Walt Disney World Moderate Resort Rates
wdwinfo/wdwinfo/disn...erate-2019.htm

This is also a good read and compares some 2020 prices against 2019.
disneytouristblog/20...cing-analysis/

Also this site not only shows the percentage annual dues increase over 1-year for each resort but also since each resort opened.
dvcresalemarket/buying/annual-dues/

Break even will vary on resort purchased, the time of year you normally visit and also if a resale contract is loaded.

In some cases break-even could be less than 4-years when not accounting for free dining and discounted rooms.

We're members at OKW and have stayed at all WDW DVC resorts over the years, but that normally results in a split stay when staying at the likes of GFV, BCV, BWV, POLY, CCV etc...

ADDED.
You might already know that points per room are changing in 2021, but if not and you've calculated using the 2020 charts then check out the Dibb's link at https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/dvc...id=8&year=2021

Good luck

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Thank you so much, great links!

[orlandoamber]

Originally Posted by Shooby doo

Ok Amber I'm going to seize on the "we'd usually on stay at Disney..." & ask yourself where would you stay otherwise? For instance there is no point in comparing DVC to YC if you are more than happy to stay somewhere at £150/night IYKWIM, when you do it that way you quickly realise that the values then become a lot closer. We only paid $67.50/point (SSR) & by my calculations, we about break even at the end of the contract! It's very easy to say "look at what you could have won" & by some extent you are already doing this by comparing AKL/YC when it should be SSR - that aside it still only works if that's where you would have stayed anyway.
We bought going the other way as our family had grown up so just the 2 of us, it's great, we love it but I'm not sure we would repeat it now.If we had only ever stayed at Disney, then I might have slightly different opinion but I do remember going to look at BWV in 2000/01 & not being overly impressed at the size of a studio compared to some of the kids/one bed suites we had been staying in offsite. Suites with full kitchens, separate rooms, separate TVs even So you then look at adding on for 1 beds but that's going to take the same number of points again- 1 bed is approx twice the points per week of a studio.
We have moved offsite a couple of times & I can say that the rooms are on par if not better than any of our DVC stays, especially RPR. Now this year we have a 10/11 split & have Sapphire Falls (which is supposedly as good as RPR just without the Express pass) for £140/night not far off £900 saved on renting the equivalent in DVC points!
To finish, I'm not saying don't buy but advising to consider the way you are doing your calculations & I'm not saying you are doing this but it's very easy to "get the answer we really want" & then rationalise it IYKWIM
SD

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Great points, thank you.

We have stayed offsite before and it’s not really for us, we like convenience of location, so it would be a case of fully onsite at Disney or a split stay coupling with onsite universal. On our last trip, although we like universal, we realised Disney is our ‘home’ and if we were to do a split stay again we would spend the majority of the time at Disney anyway. We will likely stick to Disney the majority of the time for 14 nights now as we love the magic We had already decided this is what we will do for 2022, perhaps just staying at universal for one night for HHN. We can then just do non-Disney universal trips every few years if we want to, separate to Disney.

I think you’ve got a point in comparing it to how much SSR would usually cost. I chose to do it with AKL/YC as I already had prices for 2021 for those and as we know it’s hard to get prices now with everything going on. I’ll try a bit harder to find a ballpark figure for SSR end of September/October and add it to my spreadsheet!

[orlandoamber]

Originally Posted by Br'er Bear

Shooby doo makes a very good point, there are some great resorts offsite and at more reasonable prices.

We've stayed in a few Marriott resorts and had a great time, so good if you're not looking for the benefits of staying on site like ME, free parking or extra hours in the park.

But if you are planning on going back to Disney and the parks year after year and you've discounted renting DVC points then DVC can be a good alternative.

There was a very good contract which JasonErpelding highlighted the other day at https://www.thedibb.co.uk/forums/sho... php?t=1176336

Those two contracts for 150-OKW points in total would have cost around $19,620 including dues and closing cost.

102-points could be used from 1st Sept 2020 and 150-points from 1st Sept 2021 and every year after up until 2057.

Looking at the 102 points available to use in 2020 use year, you might have consider a 10-night pre-Christmas trip in an OKW studio from 14th Dec using 108-points (borrow 6) and the full Disney room only cost would be around $6,150

When the 144-points becomes available in 2021 that could get you 13-nights from 11th Dec in 2021 using 142-points which would cost around $7,814 if buying from Disney at full room cost.

Therefore those 23-nights could cost through Disney around $13,964 or 250-points.

That's a sizeable amount when considering the initial outlay of $19,619.68.

But also consider 108-points could also get you 10-nights in an OKW studio in Jan 2021 and the full rate at 2020 prices would be a lot lower at around $4,238

While 142-points would also get you 13-nights in an OKW studio in Jan 2022 and the full rate at 2020 prices would be around $5,521.

So those 23-nights could cost through Disney a lot less at $9,757 while still using the same 250-points.

That's a difference of over $4,000 and hopefully highlights that there's not a consistency when comparing points against Disney full room rate and therefore depending where and how you use your points, then breakeven could take longer.

Also, just say you got feed up with Disney then as those OKW contracts ended in 2057 then there's a good chance that in 10-years time you could resell those contracts with 27-years still remaining and see a reasonable return on your initial outlay.

That could mean you've only paid for your dues of around $1,200 pa for up to 13-nights each year in December, so currently less than $100 per night.

Also agree with Hollie04 and would not recommend buying right now and monitor the resale market. Depending on Covid then maybe even wait until Jan when the next dues are payable as that might see even more resale contracts.

Hope I've correctly calculated the above, sorry if there's a mistake and best of luck with your decision.

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Thank you, that is all really helpful. I saw those OKW contracts and thought they looked like a good deal! I’m interested in SSR for the same reason regarding the longer term - 2054/57 at SSR/extended OKW.

January could be a good idea. It would be nice to be able to use our points for Aulani next year but we’d need to have bought by November for that which might not be the best time... unless I find a good contract between now and then. That’s no big deal though, I’m happy to rent points as originally planned.