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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:18 AM  
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#41
Bozza
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Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
That's not actually true though, is it, although I appreciate it doesn't fit your narrative. Witty made it very clear in the early days that the threats from Covid-19 are many.

Chris Witty to the Science and Technology Committee on the 24th April:

"One of the things that I've tried to say several times in public and I will say again here is that in terms of looking at just the public health, there are four forms of major negative impact on health, just narrowly health that this epidemic is going to have.

"There's direct deaths from people dying of Covid with the NHS working well, there are indirect deaths because the NHS got overwhelmed which it has not due to the fantastic work of the whole of the UK public, as well as the absolutely remarkable work of the NHS, it has not. But that was the second risk of overwhelming the emergency services.

"The third one is the indirect deaths caused by downscaling other health issues and public health issues, elective surgery, where health problems are probably going to come back where people have delayed things or stuff hasn't been picked up or dealt with earlier than it otherwise will now be and this is an indirect effect.

"The final one though, and this is absolutely within the scope of Sage (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), and we've looked at this, is we all know that there is a gradient between health and deprivation and if as a result of economic downturns for prolonged periods, deprivation increases, that will have a health effect."
Would you look (listen) to that - he's just repeated this now, and went out of his way to stress the importance of three above - indirect health consequences.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:21 AM  
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RachaelC
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Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
Would you look (listen) to that - he's just repeated this now, and went out of his way to stress the importance of three above - indirect health consequences.
Theyíve done a good job. Situation clearly explained in a really balanced way.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:24 AM  
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MarkUK
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After watching that I really hope and pray that people will follow the law. 6 means 6, not 7, not 8, not 9. Anyone who fails to do this, has no right to complain IMO about any further more stringent restrictions.
The second wave is here and we all need to pull together to get through this.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:26 AM  
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Pinchy
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Well nothing new there.

Hope it has some impact.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:27 AM  
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Andy C
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Originally Posted by MarkUK View Post
After watching that I really hope and pray that people will follow the law. 6 means 6, not 7, not 8, not 9. Anyone who fails to do this, has no right to complain IMO about any further more stringent restrictions.
The second wave is here and we all need to pull together to get through this.
Agreed. If people take it seriously and follow the rules, we stand a chance of getting through all this with the current level of restrictions. And this is nothing like it was in March and April.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:27 AM  
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Bozza
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Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
Would you look (listen) to that - he's just repeated this now, and went out of his way to stress the importance of three above - indirect health consequences.
What a job to have. I can't begin to imagine.

Earlier this year: "You acted too late - lots of people died!"

Now: "Why are you restricting us - not many people have this - hardly anyone is dying."
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:36 AM  
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I think they actually did an ok job of delivering this today, maybe best bumbling Boris wasn't involved.
So much for everything being fine for Christmas though 🙄 The positive was their confidence with the vaccine being ready within months.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:36 AM  
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Still frustrating to see them say:

Cases doubling every 7 days - But that clearly isn't happening at the moment, no increase in past 2 weeks. What is the justification for thinking it will suddenly start spiralling upwards? Why not say "it appears to have stabilised thanks to the hard work of the public. Let's not be complacent and let it start to go up again."

Positive percentage increasing - It certainly did (from about 0.6% to 1.7%, but it has been decreasing for a week - about 1.4% now).

Immunity - no real mention that antibody response is not the only immunity response (especially around T-Cells fighting off infections, which is what is happening when people get re-infected after their antibodies have waned). Why not announce that we will start extra research into this given its importance?

No mention of the False Positive issue which is statistically very significant.

Still only comparing us to France and Spain. Why not Italy? Germany? Sweden? Denmark? Norway? Cherry-picking the worst 2 examples is disingenuous. Surely if we have learned one thing it is that comparison of countries is very difficult. I noted that the comparison to Belgium which was being touted as the solution to drive the Rule of Six introduction was quietly dropped from their comparisons after their cases went up again.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:36 AM  
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Letís hope the U.K. government actually listens to the scientific advice and gets on board with appropriate measures and not their usual whishy washy response

In recent weeks the increase in positive tests has not really worried me, and I do not understand this doubling information either information given out has been false or this is an exaggeration but Because I follow the rules etc and the rules are tougher here Iím not overly concerned , but the predictions from Vallance in particular, do concern me. I fear though, as is the case here in Spain as well, those not in the slightest concerned or the young will still not adjust their behaviour. I always said as lockdown eases cases will rise as will the deaths, I now believe not only will covid deaths rise but equally so will deaths completely unrelated to covid which has always concerned me,

Boris now has to step up to the plate

Edited at 11:40 AM.
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Old 21 Sep 20, 11:41 AM  
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JudyC
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Originally Posted by neilhd View Post
Immunity - no real mention that antibody response is not the only immunity response (especially around T-Cells fighting off infections.
Did I hear him refer to other things being at play , but then not expanding on it..
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