A level results day looming

[windsor_hills]

Apparently there is going to be an announcement at 4pm today. Not sure how accurate this is? Hopefully there is going to be an announcement and hopefully it’s a sensible / positive one.

[Guest]

Originally Posted by Nimbus

All this is not new. This "problem" - the discrepancy between predicted grades and actual grades, plus the "standardisation" of results - has been around for years. It's merely become news this year.

Here's a research paper from 2016 stating that "the vast majority (75% of applicants) were over-predicted – ie. their grades were predicted to be higher than they actually achieved".

In comparison, the 39% that were over-predicted this year is actually a much better result than in the past.

It also goes on to say, "Students from disadvantaged backgrounds and state schools are more likely to be over-predicted, whilst those at independent schools receive more accurate predictions". So it's no surprise that, again, this year the grades of those from disadvantaged backgrounds are affected more than others.

Teacher assessed grades being higher than they should be is not a new thing. Although it's worth pointing out that this year the majority (around 60%) actually correctly estimated the grade the student would get.

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Interesting.

I also think that under the normal system the kids don't have a clue of how they are going to do, so it's all last minute. Every year some don't do as well as they expected. I was one of them. But this year kids seem to have known their CAGs in some instances which has built up both anticipation and to a certain extent a sense of expectation.

Don't get me wrong, there are some horror stories out there and so many people are devastated, but I do think the long lead time hasn't helped.

I hope that those that feel they have been hard done by under this system are able to have successful appeals and that those who wish to move on to uni or other career paths are able to do so quickly. Stressful for all.

GCSE on Thursday and my younger DD is already asking questions about how all this will play out in her results.

Not well I suspect.

[butterflymags]

Originally Posted by Nimbus

All this is not new. This "problem" - the discrepancy between predicted grades and actual grades, plus the "standardisation" of results - has been around for years. It's merely become news this year.

Here's a research paper from 2016 stating that "the vast majority (75% of applicants) were over-predicted – ie. their grades were predicted to be higher than they actually achieved".

In comparison, the 39% that were over-predicted this year is actually a much better result than in the past.

It also goes on to say, "Students from disadvantaged backgrounds and state schools are more likely to be over-predicted, whilst those at independent schools receive more accurate predictions". So it's no surprise that, again, this year the grades of those from disadvantaged backgrounds are affected more than others.

Teacher assessed grades being higher than they should be is not a new thing. Although it's worth pointing out that this year the majority (around 60%) actually correctly estimated the grade the student would get.

See more...

The issue for me though is when a teacher predicts grades they base it on the student they know and if all goes well. They cannot predict what may occur in the run up to or on the day of the exam and it’s affect on the student, so predictions will always be out.
In effect the algorithm has predicted which students have had the ‘bad day at the office’ and that has been decided by ranking them. So the student who appears last in the ranking is the one who gets to have the ‘bad day, and lower mark yet it may well have been the A* student last year because their girlfriend dumped them the night before.

[Ds4ljs]

Originally Posted by windsor_hills

Apparently there is going to be an announcement at 4pm today. Not sure how accurate this is? Hopefully there is going to be an announcement and hopefully it’s a sensible / positive one.

See more...

We shall soon see... not telling my DD she’s distraught enough as it is.

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by butterflymags

The issue for me though is when a teacher predicts grades they base it on the student they know and if all goes well. They cannot predict what may occur in the run up to or on the day of the exam and it’s affect on the student, so predictions will always be out.
In effect the algorithm has predicted which students have had the ‘bad day at the office’ and that has been decided by ranking them. So the student who appears last in the ranking is the one who gets to have the ‘bad day, and lower mark yet it may well have been the A* student last year because their girlfriend dumped them the night before.

See more...

Are you trying to say that 75% of students have lower grades than predicted because they had "a bad day at the office"? That's a lot of pupils that had bad days.

Yes, its possible that will be the case for some. But, if the teachers had predicted things correctly, it should equally be true that some students will have a "good day at the office" and do better than predicted. That isn't the case though and hasn't been for many years.

Basically, teachers tend to predict the best case scenario, not the most-likely case scenario. And that's the problem here.

That's the same in previous years just as much as it was this year. In fact, it was worse in previous years. If anything, the teachers assessments and the final results were actually closer aligned this year than previous years.

I would argue that what the algorithm has done is taken the overestimated "best case" predictions and standardised these to produce more realistic final grades and something that is more aligned to the spread of grades achieved in previous (and future) years*.

(* and I say that as a parent of a child whose teacher assessed A-level grades have been downgraded)

[Disney Dreaming]

So when they say Predicted grades, is it the CAG grade?

[tinytots]

Originally Posted by Disney Dreaming

So when they say Predicted grades, is it the CAG grade?

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Yes the CAG grade, not the predicted grades as in UCAS predicted

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by tinytots

Yes the CAG grade, not the predicted grades as in UCAS predicted

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Technically the two are the same?

This year the centre (school) assessment grade (CAG) is the grade that the teachers at the school predict the student should get.

My DD's predicted grades were the same as the CAGs. It would be a bit weird if the school predicted a different grade to the one it assessed the student should get.

[ely3857]

Originally Posted by Nimbus

Are you trying to say that 75% of students have lower grades than predicted because they had "a bad day at the office"? That's a lot of pupils that had bad days.

Yes, its possible that will be the case for some. But, if the teachers had predicted things correctly, it should equally be true that some students will have a "good day at the office" and do better than predicted. That isn't the case though and hasn't been for many years.

Basically, teachers tend to predict the best case scenario, not the most-likely case scenario. And that's the problem here.

That's the same in previous years just as much as it was this year. In fact, it was worse in previous years. If anything, the teachers assessments and the final results were actually closer aligned this year than previous years.

I would argue that what the algorithm has done is taken the overestimated "best case" predictions and standardised these to produce more realistic final grades and something that is more aligned to the spread of grades achieved in previous (and future) years*.

(* and I say that as a parent of a child whose teacher assessed A-level grades have been downgraded)

See more...

Perhaps it’s time to remove the chance of a ‘bad day at the office’ and reduce exams for grades and focus more on course work and regular (but much smaller) exams/quizzes. Students are continuously assessed as soon as they enter education anyway. Just make those assessments official.

[Nimbus]

Breaking News - The government has now U-turned and decided that students in both England and Wales will be based on CAGs and not be downgraded.

Good news for my DD, who will now go up a grade in each of her 3 subjects.

But it is a bit of a mess.