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Old 28 Oct 20, 03:05 PM  
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#1431
Andy C
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Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
As a follow-up to the above, it seems PHE have added more granularity to their data which now allows infection rate per age to be viewed, and we can see from that the initial "student surge" in Nottingham but, now, the inevitable spread to the older and more vulnerable residents:



Source: twitter/carlbaker/status...020985856?s=20

A health economist at the University of Leeds has done some work to extract the "student effect" from infection rates in some of the impacted cities in the North here: twitter/danielhowdon/sta...692032514?s=20
This is what people were worrying about, unfortunately.
It does imply that hospitalisations will increase there even when infections start coming down, as the more vulnerable get it. Deaths will also be even more lagging as an indicator than before.

We could be in the slightly strange situation of the restrictions we have starting to work, but with deaths and hospitalisations still stubbornly increasing for a while.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 03:27 PM  
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#1432
jas72
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Originally Posted by FamilyGWales View Post
It seems from.what I have read that you are reaching crisis point in Belgium if not have done so already? Is this your perception, and are the Belgian governments doing anything which is working that could be considered as good practice to do in the UK?

I know the Belgian health care governance is highly complex and particularly on the public health side. Are different governments dealing with the public health crisis in the same way do you know ? Or is there divergence as there is here ?
I'm not sure what they can do to be honest and I don't think its totally Belgium wide either.

For my part I'm working from home walking the dog and going shopping once a week.

The government is taking a regional view so different areas have different rules. They are trying to get to the end of this week then the schools have two weeks off. Restaurants bars gyms cinemas etc all closed. Social gatherings inside limited to 4 people outside your family.

I wonder if they will ban visits to each others homes. To be honest I don't think they even know anymore how the infections are spreading.

We are expecting further restrictions on Friday but for me it won't change a thing.

Let's hope the different restrictions lower the numbers so we can have some sort of Christmas this year.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 04:04 PM  
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#1433
Pinchy
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Originally Posted by robrar View Post
I'm not sure this is a semantic issue or a genuine difference of opinion.

I said that social distancing and improved therapeutics are effective in controlling the impact of the virus. Is that something you really disagree with?

As for the term "national lockdown" I think it's unhelpful if people are going to argue it's a binary state, either on or off; and unhelpful if there are differences of opinion as to what is actually meant by "lockdown".

I think the level of restrictions which are necessary should be determined by the data, with the intention of getting ahead of the curve rather than falling behind it. I think that's best done regionally. Of course, this doesn't preclude all regions instituting the toughest of measures conceivable, which I guess would become a de facto national lockdown. But I think there are plenty of reasons why simply enforcing a national lockdown is unwise at the moment.
Of course the measures you mention are effective in controlling the virus but at what level? The summer was the time for the regional approach to get numbers on the floor, when it would have been much easier. Now there is virtually no county that doesn't have a high and increasing level of infections and by high I mean above what their t&t can cope with. The Tier measures are not working.

So is it better to proceed by putting everyone in Tier 3? We have seen the division the Tier system causes and the opportunities it gives people to ignore the spirit of the rules. A national lockdown would place everyone in the same boat. We know this works. Everyone in separate Tiers is untried.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 04:17 PM  
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#1434
robrar
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Originally Posted by Pinchy View Post
Of course the measures you mention are effective in controlling the virus but at what level? The summer was the time for the regional approach to get numbers on the floor, when it would have been much easier. Now there is virtually no county that doesn't have a high and increasing level of infections and by high I mean above what their t&t can cope with. The Tier measures are not working.

So is it better to proceed by putting everyone in Tier 3? We have seen the division the Tier system causes and the opportunities it gives people to ignore the spirit of the rules. A national lockdown would place everyone in the same boat. We know this works. Everyone in separate Tiers is untried.
No, I don't think it is better approach. Part of the challenge of severe restrictions is the need to financially support those businesses who are prohibited from operating, or on whom the cost of continuing to operate at a loss is too great to bear. Given that we don't have an unlimited pot of money and the government has already started to scale back the support it can afford to give, I think it is better to target the financial package on areas which are most affected rather than spread it across the country including to areas which are far less affected by the chain of transmission.

I also think we have a growing problem with societal acceptance of the need for these restrictions, and that will translate in to lower compliance with the measures which are imposed. I think this problem will be worsened if people in a significantly less affected area are subject to restrictions which they feel the spread of the virus in that area does not warrant.

I think we need to be driven by the data. From what I can see the data indicates that the virus is not affecting all regions equally, the spread of the infection is not the same across the country. We see that now, we saw it back during the first wave of infection. Therefore, in my opinion, regional decision-making continues to be the best approach.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 05:12 PM  
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#1435
Pinchy
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Originally Posted by robrar View Post
No, I don't think it is better approach. Part of the challenge of severe restrictions is the need to financially support those businesses who are prohibited from operating, or on whom the cost of continuing to operate at a loss is too great to bear. Given that we don't have an unlimited pot of money and the government has already started to scale back the support it can afford to give, I think it is better to target the financial package on areas which are most affected rather than spread it across the country including to areas which are far less affected by the chain of transmission.

I also think we have a growing problem with societal acceptance of the need for these restrictions, and that will translate in to lower compliance with the measures which are imposed. I think this problem will be worsened if people in a significantly less affected area are subject to restrictions which they feel the spread of the virus in that area does not warrant.

I think we need to be driven by the data. From what I can see the data indicates that the virus is not affecting all regions equally, the spread of the infection is not the same across the country. We see that now, we saw it back during the first wave of infection. Therefore, in my opinion, regional decision-making continues to be the best approach.
The virus is increasing everywhere.

Where are all the regions where the increasing numbers have been permanently reversed by local measures?
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Old 28 Oct 20, 05:22 PM  
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#1436
robrar
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Originally Posted by Pinchy View Post
The virus is increasing everywhere.

Where are all the regions where the increasing numbers have been permanently reversed by local measures?
The rate of increase is not equal everywhere. It is a lot worse in some areas, it is less serious in other areas. I donít think this is a binary situation in which all measures are required, or no measures are required.

I donít think the permanent reversal of infection spread is an achievable goal until we have a vaccine, and even I think there will be localised outbreaks which will need T&T to manage. Using that as a yardstick to determine a national lockdown before we have a vaccine is very unwise, I think.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 05:58 PM  
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#1437
Bozza
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Todayís numbers: 24,701 people have tested positive and 310 have died.

Last Wednesday there were 191 deaths announced, so a 62% rise.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 06:03 PM  
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#1438
neilhd
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Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
Todayís numbers: 24,701 people have tested positive and 310 have died.

Last Wednesday there were 191 deaths announced, so a 62% rise.
On a more cheery note, the number of cases was less than last Wednesday and actually brought the 7-day average down a little bit for the first time in a while.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 06:13 PM  
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#1439
Bozza
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Originally Posted by neilhd View Post
On a more cheery note, the number of cases was less than last Wednesday and actually brought the 7-day average down a little bit for the first time in a while.
Last Wednesday looked a bit of an outlier at the time, and still does.

At 26,687, it's the highest single daily recorded number of positive cases.
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Old 28 Oct 20, 06:35 PM  
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#1440
Pinchy
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Originally Posted by robrar View Post
The rate of increase is not equal everywhere. It is a lot worse in some areas, it is less serious in other areas. I donít think this is a binary situation in which all measures are required, or no measures are required.

I donít think the permanent reversal of infection spread is an achievable goal until we have a vaccine, and even I think there will be localised outbreaks which will need T&T to manage. Using that as a yardstick to determine a national lockdown before we have a vaccine is very unwise, I think.
We didn't reverse it in the first lockdown?
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