August 2021 - how likely?

[bwfc4ife]

Hi all

We booked for August back in November in the hope we would be going. Just read another post saying all TUI flights have been cancelled until 1st May.
What do you think the chances are of being able to go mid-August?

Up until the last few days I was feeling positive, but now I'm thinking I need to put a deposit on a caravan in Cornwall quick before there's none left

[stepmead]

We are booked for August and not convinced it will go ahead. We aren’t doing any parks but the situation is so bad over there it’s putting me off going. We have flights with BA so can get a voucher and move the dates on the villa so no money lost.

We’ve just put a deposit down on an Airbnb in the New Forest this week for August before prices shoot up anymore. There is free cancellation until the day before so again no risk.

[TinkerBabe]

Originally Posted by stepmead

We are booked for August and not convinced it will go ahead. We aren’t doing any parks but the situation is so bad over there it’s putting me off going. We have flights with BA so can get a voucher and move the dates on the villa so no money lost.

We’ve just put a deposit down on an Airbnb in the New Forest this week for August before prices shoot up anymore. There is free cancellation until the day before so again no risk.

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We are in a similar position...we have Florida keys, Miami and cruise in August, moved from last August, and if we are able to go we definitely will, however if borders don't open we can cancel everything (reward flights, pay on arrival hotels, and cruise can be moved although I expect that to be cancelled soon anyway) and with this in mind we have booked a week away in the UK as a back up, with free cancellation up until a few days before.

[AdmiralJack]

If im honest, i think my October trip, never mind an August trip, is looking unlikely.

Why?

A few weeks ago i thought things would be back to normal or near normal by October.

Not any more-given the epic balls up the EU has made of its vaccinations, and the emergence of new strains, the virus will still be widely circulating around Europe and much of the Americas where vaccinations haven't even started, in October.

Its all very well for the UK and the US to be vaccinating at a decent rate, which they are, but we need the rest of the world to be doing the same in order to have the confidence to open borders to travel.

Additionally, with countries introducing compulsory hotel quarantine upon return, and the absolutely rampant virus in the US own neighbourhood (Brazil especially) not only is the US not going to have the afore mentioned confidence to open its borders to mass overseas tourism for much of the year, but nor will tourists be willing to travel even if they can-from the UK perspective alone, if a holiday means 10 or 14 days of hotel quarantine upon return, at your own expense, for 99% of people, the holiday isn't happening, and that's just the UK; although the announcement today doesn't include the US, that can easily change as facts change.

I think the further most of us will be going this summer is our local beach, or possibly Ireland-the UK and Ireland are in discussions to form a travel `bubble` similar to the Australian/New Zealand area, to encourage very short distance staycations between the two countries, is stats allow.

So on balance, I think August is much less likely now than i thought a few weeks ago.

[bwfc4ife]

Originally Posted by AdmiralJack

If im honest, i think my October trip, never mind an August trip, is looking unlikely.


So on balance, i think August is much less likely now than i thought a few weeks ago.

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Yeh that's what I thought too... can you guys let me know who you have booked with please to get the free cancellation? I'm looking at Hoseasons at the min but they are so expensive!

[tspill]

I am 90% confident in our October trip. I would say 50-60% for August.
I just look what progress we have made in a few months on vaccine. Now we have a treatment that sounds very positive. Things can change radically in a few months and I think they will between now and late spring.

[AdmiralJack]

Originally Posted by bwfc4ife

Yeh that's what I thought too... can you guys let me know who you have booked with please to get the free cancellation? I'm looking at Hoseasons at the min but they are so expensive!

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My family just booked everything through Virgin. Originally we were supposed to be going on October last year staying at All Star Movies. We rescheduled for this October but the price of the same hotel was about 5k more, so we changed to Rosen Inn Pointe Orlando on I Drive.

Luckily, because we rescheduled rather than cancelled, we haven't had to go through all the drama of cancellations and refunds. That might change this year unless we decide to reschedule, again

[AdmiralJack]

Originally Posted by tspill

I am 90% confident in our October trip. I would say 50-60% for August.
I just look what progress we have made in a few months on vaccine. Now we have a treatment that sounds very positive. Things can change radically in a few months and I think they will between now and late spring.

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True, but the issue isnt what progress we have made, but what progress the rest of the world hasnt. The UK, Israel and increasingly the US are outliers at the moment.

Until the whole world starts vaccinating at scale, borders wont be opening any time soon-Australia and New Zealand for example, dont expect to be allowing mass tourism at all this year..

[Moorlandman]

I watched Dr Hillary on the Lorraine Show and he advised that there will be no holidays this year.

[AdmiralJack]

Originally Posted by Moorlandman

I watched Dr Hillary on the Lorraine Show and he advised that there will be no holidays this year.

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In fairness, he is a doctor (albeit one who seems to have a shocking amount of spare time to pop up on daytime TV in the middle of a pandemic), not a representative of the travel industry.

Although dont get me wrong, he is probably correct