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1 Sep 19, 12:23 PM |
#11
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Imagineer
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plus.. even 60 / 70 mph winds inland are going to cause damage to some properties which are not in good state of repair.
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1 Sep 19, 01:58 PM |
#12
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Imagineer
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Forecast models are changing again. - 2.00p.m. our time.
Florida may still be hit. |
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1 Sep 19, 02:03 PM |
#13
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VIP Dibber
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Upgraded to a 5- must still be vigilant
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1 Sep 19, 02:26 PM |
#14
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Apprentice Imagineer
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We are here at the moment, local new is stating we may still get hit, it depends if dorian curves up the coast, at the moment it hasnt! Due to fly tuesday, havent a clue if we will or not 😕
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1 Sep 19, 02:54 PM |
#15
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Helping Minnie
Join Date: Jun 19
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Being realistic, and interpreting the forecasts in the manner they are meant to be interpreted, is not scaremongering - it is being sensible and responsible.
The track shown going up offshore is only the predicted course of the EYE of the hurricane. If you read the details of the last forecast, it is now cat 5, with hurricane force winds extending out 30 miles from the centre and tropical storm force winds out to 105 miles. Dorian is not a point but a massive weather system covering a HUGE area. Superimpose a circle of radius 105 miles on the track of the eye and you will see that Dorian WILL affect almost the entire east coast from Vero Beach, through Cocoa, Daytona, St Augustine, with tropical storm force winds and predicted storm surge of up to 15 to 20 ft. That is why there are evacuations. That is not a 'non-event' and is not 'Dorian bypassing Florida' as the title of this thread implies. Furthermore, the current forecast is not for landfall in the Carolinas either, but for a track continuing offshore. MCO is only 40 miles from the coast. Even if the eye only comes to 60 miles offshore, then MCO could be getting tropical storm force winds. That is why they are being cautious, as they still don't know for sure how close the eye will come. If all you care about is WDW and Universal (which are further west) remaining open, then your blinkered view may be of a 'non-event', but lots of Dibbers go to the east coast. KSC is already shut. When you see the forecast track, people jump to the conclusion that is the actual path. Dorian isn't following the forecast and the models are not as accurate as we would like. NHC are actually showing a 'cone of uncertainty' - the path of the eye is just expected to be somewhere between the left and right hand sides. The left hand edge is still shown as being over land - so there is is still a chance of landfall of the eye - it is just less probable than the eye remaining offshore. Dorian hasn't been following the centreline of the cone yet - so far it has tended towards the right, but it could equally move to the left. Let's hope it continues to go more to the right. Let's keep the discussion realistic. |
1 Sep 19, 03:18 PM |
#16
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Imagineer
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1 Sep 19, 03:35 PM |
#17
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Imagineer
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1 Sep 19, 03:38 PM |
#18
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VIP Dibber
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Keep safe Debbie and DonnaD and all my other DIBB friends who have to live through this.
Mick
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1 Sep 19, 03:49 PM |
#19
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Imagineer
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Whilst I'm now confident our flight will go as planned on Saturday , I'm still not confident our cruise will go as planned as it's a Bahamas cruise. Time will tell . (I do have a back up plan)
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1 Sep 19, 03:52 PM |
#20
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Imagineer
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