$$$ pre or post Brexit?

[Moorlandman]

Originally Posted by Claudette

You think “the markets” have not thought about the possibility of there being no deal? And haven’t priced for it? The situation is not exactly a secret. The price reflects uncertainty.

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A no deal will see the pound head below one dollar in value. Although I would expect some sort of recovery after the initial shock

[Squidgyness]

Originally Posted by Claudette

You think “the markets” have not thought about the possibility of there being no deal? And haven’t priced for it? The situation is not exactly a secret. The price reflects uncertainty.

OP, there is no right answer to your question. If anybody could see into the future they would be trillionaires. Toss a coin for it.

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Bear in mind when talking about "the financial market" that these people aren't omniscient, they are gamblers and human ones at that. To you and me, it might seem obvious to have factored a no deal in, but then the banks back before 2008 didn't think it too risky to lend money to lots of people who couldn't pay it back which in hindsight seems a bit of a bad call. Sometimes the gambles pay off, sometimes not. Rarely does it have the potential to have such a large effect though.

I'm honestly debating whether to change £1k now just in case it plummets. Sub-1.10 levels would mean a postponement of any trips, so it's affecting my choice of when to book a trip full stop right now.

Personally I'd have just took the nations budget to the casino and put it all on red. We'd have had a decision quicker that this mess is taking.

[dx4100]

Originally Posted by Claudette

You think “the markets” have not thought about the possibility of there being no deal? And haven’t priced for it? The situation is not exactly a secret. The price reflects uncertainty.

OP, there is no right answer to your question. If anybody could see into the future they would be trillionaires. Toss a coin for it.

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I have no idea where you are coming from to be frank. That’s not how the currency markets work at all. If we go no deal the currency market will react at that point.

They can’t factor in no deal. No major ecconmy in the world has ever gone solely to WTO world trade rules. Not one. Every major ecconmy supplements WTO rules with other trade deals with there nearest trading partners. Could you imagine the USA and Canadian not having agreements ? Could you imagine what would happen if they one day decided to suddenly just WTO it ? That is exactly what the crazy Brexiters are suggesting we do with our EU neighbours.

This message of it will all be fine is a sham. If we go no deal the currency market will tank for us. Pretty much every economist has that opinion. You can’t factor it now ? Today’s currency market reflects todays reality not tomorrow’s maybes.

[OllieT]

Thanks everyone, we have decided to buy although we really don’t need much as on full DDP so just tips, souvenirs and extra cocktails 😁

[Loftus]

Originally Posted by Claudette

You think “the markets” have not thought about the possibility of there being no deal? And haven’t priced for it? The situation is not exactly a secret. The price reflects uncertainty.

OP, there is no right answer to your question. If anybody could see into the future they would be trillionaires. Toss a coin for it.

See more...

They haven't priced in no deal yet, they have priced in what they see as the lower possibility of there being a no deal. They are still expecting common sense to prevail and there to be a deal. The price may reflect uncertainty, but if no deal becomes certain the pound will plunge.

[Fawkes]

We go beginning of April. I bit the bullet last week and ordered at 1.29. Looking at the minute around 1.25 to 1.27 I think I made the right choice. But if it goes up before we go i'll never hear the last of it from DH!

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by Claudette

You think “the markets” have not thought about the possibility of there being no deal? And haven’t priced for it? The situation is not exactly a secret. The price reflects uncertainty.

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You mean like the way they factored in the chance that the country might vote leave back June 2016? The pound dropped lots then.

At the moment, the markets are assuming a deal of some sort will be made, because that’s deemed the likely outcome (same as the remain result was the considered the likely outcome). That’s what the markets are currently reflecting. If the result is no deal then the markets will react accordingly once that unlikely event happens.

[justmagical]

Originally Posted by OllieT

Thanks everyone, we have decided to buy although we really don’t need much as on full DDP so just tips, souvenirs and extra cocktails 😁

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I think that’s the best decision you could have made at the moment in this climate

We fly in 6 weeks and got the 1.29 not so long back and that’ll do us as we on DDP too

[OLS]

If I was flying in the next 6-8 weeks I would probably buy now, or at least buy 50% of it now as if it's "bad news" in march I am expecting a drop, however if I was going in August (we go mid august) I would wait and see (which is what I am doing!) I know it's a gamble but oh well, what will be will be - I am hoping if it is bad news in March waiting till just before we go mid August will give it a little bit of time to recover!

If we knew what would happen we would all be very rich investing in to it now!

[oeamon]

Originally Posted by Claudette

Totally agree with this. Spent over 25 years in multi national, financial services industry and *uncertainty* is the driver of FX rate movements, not political decisions.

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I don't pretend to understand exchange rates at all but sounds like you have lots of experience. if the pound bombed after the result of the vote what will stop in the event of a no deal. I am genuinely curious.