What about this virus? Covid-19

[SussexFamily]

Originally Posted by bluedave

I’m immunocompromised due to medication I take and am due to be going to Thailand soon on holiday. Now I could catch this virus anywhere but tbh I wish I was able to swap the holiday for somewhere not so near China.

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I have relatives going to Singapore and Bali in the next few months, I'm worried about it.

[sky13]

Originally Posted by Emmie2016

It has normal flu symtoms then evolves into an upper respiratory symtoms. There has been a test for Coronavirus (this is just a different strain) for years, they take swabs of the mouth, throat and nose and test. In the country over 1300 have been tested and only 8 had been confirmed.

It's not weird as it's just a strain of flu, flu viruses mutate very quick and this strain is very contagious.

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Couple of quick corrections (apologies).

There are a few regularly circulating coronavirus strains that cause the common cold (amongst other viruses that can also cause the common cold) - 229E, NL63, HKU1 and OC43. These are usually fairly innocent and don't usually kill people.

There are also 2 (and now 3) coronaviruses that have a fairly high mortality rate - SARS (774 died of 8090 infected) and MERS (approximately 35% case fatality rate).

The main way these viruses are tested for is by a PCR-based method. Yes, this has been around for years, but the reagents (primers) and targets for each coronavirus will be different. The idea is that a test for SARS should pick up SARS (sensitive), but not pick up MERS (specific). So the PCR tests are individualised to each virus. This is why when COVID-19 first appeared, there was a rush to develop diagnostic tests that could detect this new virus (as previously available tests would not be detecting it). And more diagnostic tests are still currently in development.

Also, coronaviruses and influenza viruses are very different viruses. They actually have completely different genomic structures (coronaviruses have a positive sense ssRNA genome while influenza viruses have a segmented negative sense ssRNA genome)... So coronaviruses are not a strain of flu. I'm not familiar with coronavirus mutation but it would probably be at least somewhat different from influenza (the segmented nature of the influenza genome allows for antigenic shift with reassortment of genomic segments between different influenza strains, which I don't think happens with coronaviruses as they don't have the segmented genome to allow this).

[disney_daddy]

Originally Posted by YorkshireT

My personal belief is this is a lot more serious than being let on.
Hong Kong university say if it kills 1%, 50 million people could die.
Estimates of the real death rate in Wuhan are 18% mortality rate. But that may be high for reasons given and it may be nearer 5% But even at that it could mean 250 million deaths.
It’s all here in New Scientist, not my wild speculation:

google/amp/s/n...ly-to-get/amp/

This is why the Chinese have locked down 35 million people, airlines have stopped flights etc.

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Sadly I am of the same belief, there is a big cover up going on either the mortality rate is higher or its extremely infectious like nothing seen before so even a low mortality rate will result in a large number of deaths.

Chillingly weather satellites have picked up a large spike in sulphur dioxide above infected cities in china, this they say is from mass cremations.

metro/2020/02/10/cloud...ions-12215712/

We sadly might not know the true extent until this takes a hold in a country with a less secretive government.

[WhereIBelong]

The scientists will be rubbing their hands with glee at having a captive community on cruise ships, with the virus taking hold. The passengers probably less happy.

Statistics are much easier to glean with no coming and going.

[Floridatilly]

Originally Posted by PoohBears#1fan

Flu regularly closes down hospital wards, it's a massive concern, just not publicised.

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Oh I didn’t realise that x x
We do get informed of any infectious outbreaks, flu, tummy bugs etc by our daughters medical team but they have never mentioned that wards etc get closed down.

[Clare]

It’s clearly very contagious from what we know (or at least with what China has said), I personally think significantly more have come down with this than a) is being released into the media and/or b) possibly with mild symptoms people may just think they have a cold. I still think generally the mortality rate is low but if it’s as contagious as what it appears then even with a low mortality rate unfortunately there may be significant deaths.
I’ve said all along the stable door was closed after the horse had bolted. People flying into other countries, no symptoms, later developing symptoms but had already spread the virus. Another one in London now, a Chinese national who had flown into London now confirmed with the virus.

[EssexSue]

Originally Posted by WhereIBelong

The scientists will be rubbing their hands with glee at having a captive community on cruise ships, with the virus taking hold. The passengers probably less happy.

Statistics are much easier to glean with no coming and going.

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I did have to smile when they interviewed someone on the cruise ship who said passengers were saying it has not put them off cruising but it has put them off booking indoor cabins.

[SussexFamily]

Originally Posted by EssexSue

I did have to smile when they interviewed someone on the cruise ship who said passengers were saying it has not put them off cruising but it has put them off booking indoor cabins.

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Another good reason for balcony cabins !

[EssexSue]

Originally Posted by SussexFamily

Another good reason for balcony cabins !

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Wouldn't do any other. What a difference when you are quarantined!

[EssexSue]

Serious question - you know when you fly people recommend you use First Defence Nasal spray? Wondering if this could be an idea when you go into crowded places.