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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:10 AM  
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#11
stanleycamel
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Originally Posted by Claudette View Post
I think all flights are oversold.
Not all flights are oversold and airline revenue management departments use complicated algorithim software to manage flights.

yetihunter - if you want to post your flight details on the "Is my flight full" thread I will have a look and see if I can give you an idea of how busy the flight might be if that helps. As you have already sorted your seats they shouldn't change unless there is a last minute aircraft substitution.

Edited at 10:16 AM.
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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:16 AM  
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Originally Posted by stanleycamel View Post
Not all flights are oversold and airline revenue management departments use complicated algorithim software to manage flights.

yetihunter - if you want to post your flight details on the "Is my flight full" thread I will have a look and see if I can give you an idea of how busy the flight might be if that helps. As you have already sorted your seats they shouldn't change unless there is a last minute aircraft substitution.
Thank you, I'll do that!
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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:19 AM  
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Originally Posted by Claudette View Post
The chances of being involuntary bumped are really, really low. I have seen reported as 0.01%. Airlines are more often than not accurate on their no show predictions and most people that are bumped are volunteers.
Can you please quote your source for this statistic as I believe it is highly understated so would be helpful to understand where you learned that figure you have quoted from

Some flights especially business orientated ones to say JFK are more likely to be oversold than a flight to say JNB - all depends on frequency, full fares, how many no shows oft show for that flight

OP: I still believe that the best chance you have is to use OLCI. When I last flew from MCO the family next to me at checkin where being bumped from J/Upper to another flight (and Landing in MAN rather than LGW) - we were a party of 5 in J and had competed OLCI and flew
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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:30 AM  
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Originally Posted by megaflyer View Post
Can you please quote your source for this statistic as I believe it is highly undersold so would be helpful to understand where you learned that figure you have quoted from

Some flights especially business orientated ones to say JFK are more likely to be oversold than a flight to say JNB - all depends on frequency, full fares, how many no shows oft show for that flight

OP: I still believe that the best chance you have is to use OLCI. When I last flew from MCO the family next to me at checkin where being bumped from J/Upper to another flight (and Landing in MAN rather than LGW) - we were a party of 5 in J and had competed OLCI and flew
Numerous articles, flyer forums etc that I have read around. Who are you to demand posters quote sources when you haven’t quoted any sources yourself!

Yes it pretty obvious that some flights would be more or less overbooked than others.
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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:36 AM  
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Originally Posted by Claudette View Post
Numerous articles, flyer forums etc that I have read around. Who are you to demand posters quote sources when you haven’t quoted any sources yourself!

Yes it pretty obvious that some flights would be more or less overbooked than others.
Random question but picking up on your initial post... did you use the check in kiosks at The airport when you checked in, and if so, is that where you type in your USA address for API?

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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:46 AM  
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megaflyer
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Originally Posted by Claudette View Post
Who are you to demand posters quote sources when you haven’t quoted any sources yourself!
Oh that was rather aggressive reply wasn’t it ? Maybe read your posts before you hit send as they really are often overly rude ...

I did quote my source (see above) and wasnt “demanding” anything merely curious so I can discuss with Virgin seniors at the Christmas UNIQ event I am invited too as a +1

I will dip out of this thread now and not feed etc etc etc

OP: you have been given some excellent advice above and fingers crossed 🤞 all be be fine but yes do OLCI with your API please
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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:47 AM  
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Originally Posted by disney332 View Post
Random question but picking up on your initial post... did you use the check in kiosks at The airport when you checked in, and if so, is that where you type in your USA address for API?

Disney332
No I usually go to the desk to check in with a person for international flights. I complete all my API online in advance, actually most of it is pre-populated as my details are stored with my flyer membership. I can see the US address is not provided yet for my next trip and I will do it at some time between now and April, I won’t leave it until check in.
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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:58 AM  
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Airlines have two terms in use here.

Overbooked = sold more tickets than there are seats in a given cabin/flight. For legacy carriers (BA, Virgin etc) this happens on most, if not all, flights. There might still be the odd LCC that does not overbook, but even most of those do nowadays since they started selling more flexible tickets.

Oversold = more people check in than there are seats in a cabin / aircraft. This is when upgrades, looking for volunteers to move flights, and failing that, denial of boarding, can happen.

The aim of every airline revenue management team is to overbook to the exact point where revenue is maximised but denial of boarding is not required. They are mostly pretty good at it, though the reliability of any stats found online or in forums is unknown. This is info that airlines keep very confidential.

Different routes will be overbooked to varying degrees. Business heavy routes, or routes to/from certain countries (India, parts of W Africa and the Middle East for example) are overbooked much more heavily than, say, a leisure-heavy route to somewhere like MCO. It just doesn’t get the same level of late cancellations and no-shows. Routes with a lot of connecting traffic also get overbooked more, because airlines know a percentage of people will miss connections. They have a lot of data to back this up.

For the OP, it is generally advisable to check in online if you can, but for a UK-MCO flight, a leisure route with relatively limited connecting traffic, you’re likely to be fine anyway, and more so as long as you are not arriving at the airport last minute. Nothing, of course, is guaranteed.
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Old 8 Dec 19, 10:24 PM  
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Originally Posted by Claudette View Post
Numerous articles, flyer forums etc that I have read around. Who are you to demand posters quote sources when you haven’t quoted any sources yourself!

Yes it pretty obvious that some flights would be more or less overbooked than others.
megaflyer didn't demand - he asked you very politely. You should take a leaf out of his book.
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Old 10 Dec 19, 09:36 AM  
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Just thought I would update. Didnt check in online but went to the self check in kiosk. As predicted I checked in fine but not OH. Had to then queue to be seen by a desk clerk. She couldn't see any reason why this always happens as she checked him in 1st time. He wasnt one of the 10% selected for extra security. So it still makes no sense to us why it always happens. Can never check in online and sometimes takes a few attempts at the desk. No one can give an answer. It always gets sorted but I just fear that one day we wont get a helpful person so the ongoing fear will continue I guess! Anyway we are here, its 3 30am and I'm wide awake! But all that matters right now is we are here, in a beautiful Dibb villa and loving life! Thanks for all your help everyone 👍😊
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