Scared at 2022 prices-moral support needed

[munmun]

There are so many questions about air travel its not possible to say what will happen with prices yet.

Will there be pent up demand
Will people be put off foreign travel and long distance flights
Masks
Will the availability of flights shrunk or increased
What will the UK and US economy look like
Will job losses effect travel
How stable will the Us be politically.
Vacination or no vacination
Need to boost vacination
Travel insurance changes

These are things that have sprung to mind in the few minutes I wrote this, I am sure there are hundreds more.

No real idea of costs will appear for a while yet

[mrsmickey]

There’s also a bit of depressed prices for this year going on I expect which is probably not helping you - there’s some really good prices on flights over the summer at the moment. Do a DIY price for this year and then add on abut of a buffer for inflation or exchange rate factors and hopefully it will give you a good guide for DIY next year

[YorkshireT]

Prices have been good this year. The vaccine will make a huge difference from summer onwards and those who book and if they go will get good deals, and we could yet see a last minute rush for bookings. Next year prices will depend on demand v supply. One theory is there will be massive pent up demand and prices through the roof, another is people will be out of travelling for years like a post 9/11 scenario.
I suspect the former, not least as a lot of people have banked a lot of money in lockdown.

[Mightyfraz]

Be flexible is what I learnt; we're thinking about 2022 as well, so I started having a look at BA, Virgin etc; I found it was cheaper in 2022 to get a package with a basic hotel than flights alone in 2021. So you could do that, check in and immediately check out without using the hotel if you wanted to. The other option is to go indirect as that has saved us a lot of money in the past (United was good when we went indirect last time).

If you're impatient like me, book it now and never look at the prices again :-)

[cornishfrogboy]

I (and many others) have been to the USA many times. Some like planning years ahead, whilst some leave it rather late as they search for bargains. I can only say what I do... and I am extremely budget conscious, researching for hours most days. Whilst I have booked 2021 (having twice booked and failed on 2020), I am already mapping out my excursions for 2022 and 2023. This is how I would approach it, when considering what you have said. I have written the below screed with budget and how to reduce it very firmly in mind as this seems to be a concern at the moment. I have also considered the likely ages of the children involved and the desire for simplicity.

1. There is great uncertainty and also great pent up demand, with many holding their 2020 money whilst looking to spend in 2021 if positive or 2022 if cautious.
2. There are airlines and travel companies on the bones of their backsides after the last year, who are well aware of point 1 and believe that they will be able to charge premium prices come some certainty in the market.
3. Airline prices are not yet available for 2022, being normally (with small variations for some operators), released around 330 days from your return journey in the event that you are seeking a simple return ticket. Package companies do not know what these prices will be, given points 1 & 2. They must therefore leave an awful lot of fat in there for themselves when quoting you a price.
4. Villa owners have also seen lean times and will be well aware of point 1. They are businesses and will therefore want to get as high a price as possible, having had little or no income in 2020.

With the above in mind and if I was seeking a simple, 1 location Orlando vacation then this is what I personally would do.

I would be sounding out those going and getting a general consensus of what you want after considering the factors involved. My suggestion?... Flights, Car (or people carrier)hire, Villa.
As a biggish group, the cost of parking at a park each day becomes more reasonable as you share it out.
All being under the one roof will make it a proper, family group event.. and you will invariably have a pool.. and BBQ.
Good savings can be made on meals as you have a kitchen. You can dip in and out of the parks, depending on how tired the younger ones are.

I would book flights, then car hire and accommodation once I had those flights, but never before. I would be looking at flights in the months leading up to release in order to get a ‘feel’ for the market and then booking a couple of weeks after their release, when prices tend to settle. I rarely vary on this.

Flights.
Would you consider indirects? (Can save plenty and even take no longer from door to door if fortunate). As an example, a direct from LGW to MCO will take 9 hrs, followed by an often traumatic 3 hours in immigration at the frequently painful MCO, a total of 12 hrs, plus your travel to LGW, plus your travel to your accommodation. An indirect from LHR via Atlanta with a 3 hr layover during which you clear immigration and customs does not take much longer as it is straight to baggage reclaim when you land in Orlando. LHR may be nearer and more convenient for you than LGW. The return journey may have an average, 1 hr layover going home and you won’t even see your baggage.
What I am saying is do not write off indirects, via Philly, Charlotte, Atlanta, JFK or similar. They are all East Coast and pretty much along the route of a direct flight. They can save you hundreds of pounds pp and this can either be invested elsewhere.. or kept in your pocket.
In addition, remember this. If we take Davenport as your vacation destination, then these airports come into play as alternatives to Orlando and many are much simpler and quick to navigate.. as well as a better price. I have used all of these.
Tampa is a 1 hr 30 drive.
Orlando Int is 30 mins
Sanford is 1 hr
Daytona Beach is 1 hr 30.. but an interesting looksee.
Fort Lauderdale and Miami are around 4 hrs.

You can always fly in to one and out of another!

You can finish (or start) your vacation with a day or two on the beach. That is the beauty of a DIY vacation.

Research? Use Google Flights. It is very simple to change your variables on dates and airports. Play initially with ‘one ways’ and then try combining them by moving to returns. Buying? Having got my ‘best deal’, I generally then try a direct approach through the airline web site. 2020 has taught that cutting out all ‘middle men’ can only be a good thing!

In addition, don’t just look at a 10, 14 or 21 day split on flights. Some of my best tickets have been 16, 17 or 18 days vacations.

Car Hire.
As there is uncertainty in your planning, I would most certainly consider Andy at DFCH. He is constantly monitoring the DIBB, gives copious advice on the subject, even when he clearly isn’t going to ‘get the gig’. Andy probably knows more about Car Hire in Florida than anybody else available to you. You really cannot go wrong. He was great during the carnage of 2020. He will also be extremely competitive.
Your pick up and drops will both be in the same state. You may pay a small ‘extra’ if you pick up and drop at different locations, but more than save this on flight costs.

Accommodation.
With a bigger group, I would always look to a private Villa. Whilst I have a strong preference for Holidaylettings.co.U.K. (Part of Expedia), due to their past record with me, I appreciate that there is a whole section on the DIBB where DIBBERS advertise villas and there are many other outlets.
With a Villa, you can always opt in and out of the experience, great when you have children. It is always wise to consider distances to parks and restaurants when making a decision.

In summary, you are looking and pricing (IMHO) much too soon. Things will doubtless stabilise in the coming months. I would in any case, never book anything until flights are on release. I would be researching hard though! You can look at, say this August in detail as a practice for researching and booking next August... particularly Google Flights and its options for changing dates, arrival airports, departure airports, including nearby ones etc etc. On one ways, it has graphs of prices through the months and even on a calendar box for a given month, the best price for each day.
Google Flights is a great tool, but not necessarily where you actually book. Having found a great deal on say, LHR to Tampa on 17 August returning 31 August from Orlando (I noted your countdown), you then try the same criteria on Skyscanner, Opodo, Kayak and various others. You then try it direct on the relevant airline website and also with their various codeshare partners. You may find yourselves flying on a BA aircraft, having booked the ticket through the Delta website. Or a BA aircraft out and a Delta one home, but on a simple return ticket booked through BA.

Sounds complex. Actually once you start playing, it is simple.. and great fun. I probably get as much out of planning a vacation as out of the vacation. If you don’t believe me, then look at any of the three links in my signature. There are no limits!

[Kraken]

Do remember that when flights are released (typically at T-330 days) only the most expensive fares are released at first. The "I absolutely have to travel on these dates" passenger who books as soon as the flights are released pays a price.

Wait until T-330 days from your desired return date + two weeks and you should see the cheaper fares becoming available.

[cornishfrogboy]

Originally Posted by Kraken

Do remember that when flights are released (typically at T-330 days) only the most expensive fares are released at first. The "I absolutely have to travel on these dates" passenger who books as soon as the flights are released pays a price.

Wait until T-330 days from your desired return date + two weeks and you should see the cheaper fares becoming available.

See more...

As in my long screed above.. very sound advice. Let the demand cool off before committing your money.

It is worth knowing that one of your likely options will be BA. They release at, I believe 355. Norwegian (if still operating Transatlantic are around 360. It is easy to find out, but clearly those prices will not appear on the Google, Kayak, other search engines until the 330 day mark as that is the criteria that they operate on.

[Moorlandman]

One of the biggest costs that cannot be controlled is the price of admission to the Disney parks. Current prices are £459 and we are due their annual increase this February which will put them closer to £500 or £2k for a family of 4 (with children aged 10+)

You will need to add in parking costs too if you have a car!

[cornishfrogboy]

Originally Posted by Moorlandman

One of the biggest costs that cannot be controlled is the price of admission to the Disney parks. Current prices are £459 and we are due their annual increase this February which will put them closer to £500 or £2k for a family of 4 (with children aged 10+)

You will need to add in parking costs too if you have a car!

See more...

With young children, that also adds in the question.. Disney tickets will in probability be an essential, but is there a need for Universal or Annhauser/Busch or whatever they are now. Great tickets, both.. but will double the Disney price provided by Moorlandman.

[Thorpy]

A couple of additions to Cornishfrogboys large post...

I would massively emphasise the "getting a general consensus of what you want after considering the factors involved".
When planning as a group or indeed couple, make sure that if you're the planner/booker, you know where people are most and least willing to compromise and at what cost. Somebody that prefers a villa in one area might happily book in another for a certain saving, but be very grumpy if booked there with no saving. Same for flights where you might prefer cheapest, but be willing to stretch so far to get a direct, or be willing to go indirect if the saving is enough.
Of course throw in multiple opinions and you're not going to please everyone.
The last thing you want as a booker is to see a good price for something which is close but not quite what you want, and then not be able to confirm acceptability with other group members before it disappears. Somehow not being able to get them to respond becomes your fault! It leaves you either taking a chance or missing a bargain if you can't get hold of everyone instantly. The more info you have on your parties preferences the more educated this decision can be.

We have discussed direct versus indirect in the past, and it's absolutely right that you should consider the door to door times, not just how long the flight is. As somebody who is 40 mins from Manchester we always start assuming that we fly from here, as any other option immediately introduces an unwanted additional drive. We flew out of Glasgow one year for a saving of about £800...because who wouldn't! If you're in say Cornwall and have a drive wherever you fly from in the UK, it make the choice of start airport much more flexible, and therefore the chances of getting cheaper increase.

You also you need to consider what time you get up/leave your house or arrive at your accommodation, as this can be an inconvenience that some will happily accept and others hate. Sometimes you can make a substantial saving with little inconvenience. I've seen this particularly at Manchester where indirect routes leave earlier, and directs leave mid morning, both arriving at comparable times in Orlando. If you're up to go on holiday anyway...who cares that you leave Manchester at 8am instead of 11, but if you offer me a flight arriving late night into Orlando, I'll do my best to avoid it, even if I pay more, because I hate arriving that tired.

Immigration at Orlando isn't half as bad as it's reputation amongst those that avoid it, CFB quotes 3 hours above, in 15 years it took us an hour to leave the immigration hall once, and that was because Virgin left some bags in Manchester. It's usually about 30-45 minutes from plane to monorail. Sanford is always a minimum of 30 minutes further away from the Disney area. So whilst some say it's quicker, for me it's close enough to be considered the same.