Currency Changes after brexit...

[aj2703]

Hi.

I am off to Florida this coming March. I can't make up my mind whether to get some currency now or just wait till much nearer the time. The government seem adamant we will leave at the end of the Month. if So I am thinking it would have settled down come March and the £ would start to gain again. Just not sure if it would go past what you can get today if it does.


Also not sure exactly how much to take for spending money. I was thinking $1000. We are QSDP so only a couple of tips where I have booked table meals and will also have the $200 gift card.

[itsmeGAV]

Originally Posted by aj2703

Hi.

I am off to Florida this coming March. I can't make up my mind whether to get some currency now or just wait till much nearer the time. The government seem adamant we will leave at the end of the Month. if So I am thinking it would have settled down come March and the £ would start to gain again. Just not sure if it would go past what you can get today if it does.


Also not sure exactly how much to take for spending money. I was thinking $1000. We are QSDP so only a couple of tips where I have booked table meals and will also have the $200 gift card.

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I don't think anyone on the Dibb can answer what the outlook of the pound to the dollar will be in 6 months time, you can chance it and buy now or just wait it out... who knows.

$1000 should be more than enough, how many are in your party? Factor in gift shopping etc.

[disney332]

50% now

50% when you go

- hedging your bets

Disney332

[Conno]

I remember when Brexit was new, and everyone on this forum was adamant the £ wouldn't be affected, and look at it now.

Some people still claim it's got nothing to do with Brexit and was going to happen anyway.

I wouldn't be surprised if it slumps further come the end of the month, and you shouldn't be either.

inb4 everyone says "no one can predict what will happen!"!£!"£" --- no, but we can make a bloody good educated guess.

[tspill]

Originally Posted by Conno

I remember when Brexit was new, and everyone on this forum was adamant the £ wouldn't be affected, and look at it now.

Some people still claim it's got nothing to do with Brexit and was going to happen anyway.

I wouldn't be surprised if it slumps further come the end of the month, and you shouldn't be either.

inb4 everyone says "no one can predict what will happen!"!£!"£" --- no, but we can make a bloody good educated guess.

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The markets will already have these "educated guesses" built in at this stage so it is impossible to make a better guess than that.
I think the hedging suggestion above might be a way to reduce the risk for the OP.

[Conno]

Originally Posted by tspill

The markets will already have these "educated guesses" built in at this stage so it is impossible to make a better guess than that.
I think the hedging suggestion above might be a way to reduce the risk for the OP.

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Until Bojo says something stupid today, then it drops another 5%. While the markets are predictive, they're also reactive to news.

[tspill]

Originally Posted by Conno

Until Bojo says something stupid today, then it drops another 5%. While the markets are predictive, they're also reactive to news.

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Exactly. It changes against unexpected news. The market is based on the probabilities and expectations. It primarily reacts to things that are unexpected.

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by tspill

Exactly. It changes against unexpected news. The market is based on the probabilities and expectations. It primarily reacts to things that are unexpected.

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Yes, and at the moment they will be based on the expected outcome of Brexit (whatever the markets have determined that to be). If something different happens, then the markets will react accordingly.

So, for example, if the markets currently assume the most likely probability is that we will extend the Brexit negotiations until next year but then next week something happens such that the probability changes to looking more likely that we will leave without a deal on 31st Oct, then the exchange rate will change. Because the probabilities will have changed. And, in this example, the exchange rate will probably worsen.

As Conno says, based on how things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if it slumps further come the end of the month. That's not to say that it *will*, just that we shouldn't be surprised if it does.