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Old 29 Oct 20, 05:17 PM  
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Old 29 Oct 20, 05:19 PM  
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Andy C
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1279 hospitalisations in England on the 26th of October.

Not quite triple the peak I was optimistically projecting when it all kicked off.

Wow, was I overoptimistic or what?

The only saving grace is that the doubling rate is very gradually slowing. From just under every 8 days when I started that projection (just under an R of 1.5) to just below every 10.5 days now (an R just under 1.25). We need that tendency to accelerate a bit.
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Old 29 Oct 20, 05:40 PM  
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RachaelC
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Originally Posted by Andy C View Post
1279 hospitalisations in England on the 26th of October.

Not quite triple the peak I was optimistically projecting when it all kicked off.

Wow, was I overoptimistic or what?

The only saving grace is that the doubling rate is very gradually slowing. From just under every 8 days when I started that projection (just under an R of 1.5) to just below every 10.5 days now (an R just under 1.25). We need that tendency to accelerate a bit.
If this is representative of the overall picture, then itís very concerning

twitter/covid19actuary/s...730094599?s=21

As those in hospital who acquire Covid typically have a worse outcome than those overall, letís hope we get a handle on it.
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Old 29 Oct 20, 06:01 PM  
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Originally Posted by Ritz View Post
I hope he is wrong. If he is saying that most of the positive cases are just people who have already had the virus this means that the percentage of those infected requiring hospital access is much higher than first feared.

I really don't look much into numbers of infected. My only metric is the percentage of free beds and icu beds available as once these are taken the percentage of deaths rapidly increases.

From what I have read the treatment if caught early enough can prevent the worst effects and there are now even calls for suspected cases to already take preventative drugs at home on first suspicion of a covid case.

I can't find the article but it was an interesting take...
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Old 29 Oct 20, 06:16 PM  
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Originally Posted by RachaelC View Post
If this is representative of the overall picture, then itís very concerning

twitter/covid19actuary/s...730094599?s=21

As those in hospital who acquire Covid typically have a worse outcome than those overall, letís hope we get a handle on it.
That is what should definitely not be happening, if PPE and infection control is being used correctly how are so many people actually getting infected whilst in hospital!
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Old 29 Oct 20, 06:36 PM  
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Originally Posted by dotb View Post
That is what should definitely not be happening, if PPE and infection control is being used correctly how are so many people actually getting infected whilst in hospital!
I suspect because they are so busy with a reducing staff level - stuff gets missed or mistakes made.
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Old 29 Oct 20, 07:32 PM  
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Andy C
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Some rather depressing graphs posted by "Malmesbury" over on politicalbetting.com (for context, he's been excellent at recording the straightforward data and presenting it with no agenda either way.







And, for context on the plausibility or otherwise of false positives causing any significant issues:



Given that the most plausible highest false positive rate in July was realistically about 0.15% (to allow for the prevalence level of the sample being no more than the lowest level of the ONS survey at the time), it would have to have increased by at least fifty times over to have any significant affect on the latest cases.
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Old 29 Oct 20, 07:41 PM  
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Originally Posted by tspill View Post
I suspect because they are so busy with a reducing staff level - stuff gets missed or mistakes made.
Also PPE and IPC measures are not 100% bullet proof, off the top of my head I'm sure only 70% of HCAIs are completely preventable.
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Old 29 Oct 20, 10:55 PM  
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For those interested in another viewpoint Ivor is back with another video. The Euromomo graphs at the end are interesting:

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Old 29 Oct 20, 11:33 PM  
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Originally Posted by Andy C View Post
Some rather depressing graphs posted by "Malmesbury" over on politicalbetting.com (for context, he's been excellent at recording the straightforward data and presenting it with no agenda either way.







And, for context on the plausibility or otherwise of false positives causing any significant issues:



Given that the most plausible highest false positive rate in July was realistically about 0.15% (to allow for the prevalence level of the sample being no more than the lowest level of the ONS survey at the time), it would have to have increased by at least fifty times over to have any significant affect on the latest cases.
Thank you.

What is the difference between in hospital and admissions? In hosp seems to have more Scots than Welsh and Admissions the other way round.

How does that work in practice ? Any thoughts?

Edited at 11:36 PM.
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