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Old 19 Nov 20, 03:00 PM  
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#1921
Ritz
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Critical care bed occupancy

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Old 19 Nov 20, 03:18 PM  
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#1922
Andy C
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Originally Posted by Ritz View Post
Critical care bed occupancy

Well, that's good news. The hospital admissions also seem to have levelled off - rather later than my now hopelessly overoptimistic projection originally had it, but welcome nonetheless.

Hopefully it'll be confirmed by the next ICNARC report (I think it's out tomorrow); that'll also burrow into the specifics and ensure there's no data lag effects.

I'll put up the last ones so we've got easy reference tomorrow:



... and regionally:

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Old 19 Nov 20, 04:09 PM  
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#1923
Bozza
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Originally Posted by Andy C View Post
Well, that's good news. The hospital admissions also seem to have levelled off - rather later than my now hopelessly overoptimistic projection originally had it, but welcome nonetheless.

Hopefully it'll be confirmed by the next ICNARC report (I think it's out tomorrow); that'll also burrow into the specifics and ensure there's no data lag effects.

I'll put up the last ones so we've got easy reference tomorrow:



... and regionally:

The graph @Ritz posted came from our old mate Carl Heneghan >>> twitter/carlheneghan/sta...85748366303238

One of the responses, from someone actually working on the frontline, indicates that bed %age occupancy may appear better than is actually the case:
This is a load of ≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈. The critical care capacity has been ramped up. We are nursing patients 2 to a space in some units and therefore now counting one bedspace as two. Without showing the denominator the percentage occupancy only tells half the story.

Me bringing an intubated patient onto ICU: Hi! Which bedspace are we going into?

ICU Charge Nurse, pointing at the narrow space between two actual bedspaces: There!

Literally it's like Harry Potter's Platform 9¾.
Source >>> twitter/dannyjnwong/stat...04001827155968
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Old 19 Nov 20, 04:23 PM  
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#1924
Andy C
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Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
The graph @Ritz posted came from our old mate Carl Heneghan >>> twitter/carlheneghan/sta...85748366303238

One of the responses, from someone actually working on the frontline, indicates that bed %age occupancy may appear better than is actually the case:
This is a load of ≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈. The critical care capacity has been ramped up. We are nursing patients 2 to a space in some units and therefore now counting one bedspace as two. Without showing the denominator the percentage occupancy only tells half the story.

Me bringing an intubated patient onto ICU: Hi! Which bedspace are we going into?

ICU Charge Nurse, pointing at the narrow space between two actual bedspaces: There!

Literally it's like Harry Potter's Platform 9¾.
Source >>> twitter/dannyjnwong/stat...04001827155968
Oh, dear.
To be sure, my doctor friend in Leicester was also saying things were worse than in the first wave where he is; I was rather hoping that was an isolated case.

Should have known better.
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Old 19 Nov 20, 04:43 PM  
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#1925
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Queen Elizabeth Gateshead has just suspended all elective surgery due to amount of Covid patients .
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Old 19 Nov 20, 05:21 PM  
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#1926
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Sadly the first time round feels like a practice run! It's much worse this time. Seeing higher numbers along with more non-covid admissions + staff off isolating/ sick = recipe for disaster
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Old 19 Nov 20, 05:31 PM  
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#1927
Andy C
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501 deaths announced today.

Still stubbornly high. But still too soon for the new restrictions to be feeding in.
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Old 19 Nov 20, 07:29 PM  
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#1928
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MRC Biostats Unit have released their latest updated forecast of deaths and suggested that the peak has now passed.

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Old 19 Nov 20, 07:54 PM  
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#1929
Andy C
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Originally Posted by Ritz View Post
MRC Biostats Unit have released their latest updated forecast of deaths and suggested that the peak has now passed.

That’d be nice, but I would be pleasantly surprised. After all, hospital admissions were certainly still climbing 10 days ago, and deaths are usually between 24%-28% of hospital admissions, 10 days lagged.

They were definitely still climbing until a week ago, possibly subsiding a bit after that.
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Old 20 Nov 20, 01:36 PM  
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#1930
Andy C
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Latest ONS figures now out.

The biggest single effect seems to have been... half term.



You can spot it easily in the secondary school pupils.
University students seem to have got over the hump as well.

Overall, with the end of half-term segueing into the "lockdown" period, we probably have slowly diminishing infection levels. We'll probably have the peak of deaths around the 20th-25th and then have them drop away after that. We may already have hit the peak of hospitalisations (hopefully) - this, though, is across the country and regionally, there can still be serious issues.



The North West and North East, thank God, seem to be coming under control. West Midlands maybe levelling off; London possibly going the wrong way, everywhere else levelling off or gradually reducing.

My main concern is the re-boost in secondary school age infections - we know from harsh experience that these migrate up the age bands. Overall, though, not too bad.
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