Analysis - ex Growth of cases now exponential

[Ritz]

Critical care bed occupancy

[Andy C]

Originally Posted by Ritz

Critical care bed occupancy

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Well, that's good news. The hospital admissions also seem to have levelled off - rather later than my now hopelessly overoptimistic projection originally had it, but welcome nonetheless.

Hopefully it'll be confirmed by the next ICNARC report (I think it's out tomorrow); that'll also burrow into the specifics and ensure there's no data lag effects.

I'll put up the last ones so we've got easy reference tomorrow:

... and regionally:

[Bozza]

Originally Posted by Andy C

Well, that's good news. The hospital admissions also seem to have levelled off - rather later than my now hopelessly overoptimistic projection originally had it, but welcome nonetheless.

Hopefully it'll be confirmed by the next ICNARC report (I think it's out tomorrow); that'll also burrow into the specifics and ensure there's no data lag effects.

I'll put up the last ones so we've got easy reference tomorrow:

... and regionally:

See more...

The graph @Ritz posted came from our old mate Carl Heneghan >>> twitter/carlheneghan/sta...85748366303238

One of the responses, from someone actually working on the frontline, indicates that bed %age occupancy may appear better than is actually the case:

This is a load of ≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈. The critical care capacity has been ramped up. We are nursing patients 2 to a space in some units and therefore now counting one bedspace as two. Without showing the denominator the percentage occupancy only tells half the story.

Me bringing an intubated patient onto ICU: Hi! Which bedspace are we going into?

ICU Charge Nurse, pointing at the narrow space between two actual bedspaces: There!

Literally it's like Harry Potter's Platform 9¾.

Source >>> twitter/dannyjnwong/stat...04001827155968

[Andy C]

Originally Posted by Bozza

The graph @Ritz posted came from our old mate Carl Heneghan >>> twitter/carlheneghan/sta...85748366303238

One of the responses, from someone actually working on the frontline, indicates that bed %age occupancy may appear better than is actually the case:

This is a load of ≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈. The critical care capacity has been ramped up. We are nursing patients 2 to a space in some units and therefore now counting one bedspace as two. Without showing the denominator the percentage occupancy only tells half the story.

Me bringing an intubated patient onto ICU: Hi! Which bedspace are we going into?

ICU Charge Nurse, pointing at the narrow space between two actual bedspaces: There!

Literally it's like Harry Potter's Platform 9¾.

Source >>> twitter/dannyjnwong/stat...04001827155968

See more...

Oh, dear.
To be sure, my doctor friend in Leicester was also saying things were worse than in the first wave where he is; I was rather hoping that was an isolated case.

Should have known better.

[Nanna Frozen]

Queen Elizabeth Gateshead has just suspended all elective surgery due to amount of Covid patients .

[Holly's-mummy]

Sadly the first time round feels like a practice run! It's much worse this time. Seeing higher numbers along with more non-covid admissions + staff off isolating/ sick = recipe for disaster

[Andy C]

501 deaths announced today.

Still stubbornly high. But still too soon for the new restrictions to be feeding in.

[Ritz]

MRC Biostats Unit have released their latest updated forecast of deaths and suggested that the peak has now passed.

[Andy C]

Originally Posted by Ritz

MRC Biostats Unit have released their latest updated forecast of deaths and suggested that the peak has now passed.

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That’d be nice, but I would be pleasantly surprised. After all, hospital admissions were certainly still climbing 10 days ago, and deaths are usually between 24%-28% of hospital admissions, 10 days lagged.

They were definitely still climbing until a week ago, possibly subsiding a bit after that.

[Andy C]

Latest ONS figures now out.

The biggest single effect seems to have been... half term.

You can spot it easily in the secondary school pupils.
University students seem to have got over the hump as well.

Overall, with the end of half-term segueing into the "lockdown" period, we probably have slowly diminishing infection levels. We'll probably have the peak of deaths around the 20th-25th and then have them drop away after that. We may already have hit the peak of hospitalisations (hopefully) - this, though, is across the country and regionally, there can still be serious issues.

The North West and North East, thank God, seem to be coming under control. West Midlands maybe levelling off; London possibly going the wrong way, everywhere else levelling off or gradually reducing.

My main concern is the re-boost in secondary school age infections - we know from harsh experience that these migrate up the age bands. Overall, though, not too bad.