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Old 27 Nov 20, 08:28 AM  
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YorkshireT
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Interesting book

Infectious disease expert wrote this.

To sum up, the 4 Coronavirus we have now which form part of the common cold started off very similar to Covid 19.

What happens is via a combination of factors, we develop Ďherd protectioní and it becomes endemic and less deadly.

Interestingly itís clear from this that lockdowns are a total waste of time save for trying to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed or kicking the can down the road in the hope a vaccine will save you.

Otherwise without a vaccine itís inevitable 60-80% will be naturally infected- before we get herd Ďprotectioní- there is no escaping it unless you live in a bubble the rest of your life and isolate your country forever.

Well worth a read.



Not all good news though from him, but itís a view and interesting particularly in the development of Coronavirus.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 09:05 AM  
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We're - we're literally getting several vaccines coming through.

Kicking the can down the road saved a load of people (adding a zero to the end of the current death tolls to get to acquired herd immunity would be a staggering cost). And improved hospital treatments so that twice as many people come out of ICU when they've had it.

We get herd protection when enough are immune - whether from infection (the costly way) or vaccination.

And we're getting vaccines.

Several of them. So why "Otherwise without a vaccine itís inevitable 60-80% will be naturally infected"?

We don't have to pay that price in lives lost, families bereaved, or long-term illnesses. We should be rejoicing in the advancements of our understanding and science.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 09:12 AM  
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Originally Posted by Andy C View Post
We're - we're literally getting several vaccines coming through.

Kicking the can down the road saved a load of people (adding a zero to the end of the current death tolls to get to acquired herd immunity would be a staggering cost). And improved hospital treatments so that twice as many people come out of ICU when they've had it.

We get herd protection when enough are immune - whether from infection (the costly way) or vaccination.

And we're getting vaccines.

Several of them. So why "Otherwise without a vaccine itís inevitable 60-80% will be naturally infected"?

We don't have to pay that price in lives lost, families bereaved, or long-term illnesses. We should be rejoicing in the advancements of our understanding and science.
I am not sure what you are getting at here.

Otherwise without a vaccine, exactly what it says on the tin.

Vaccine is very good I am rejoicing that. But itís the only thing that has made lockdowns have at least some argument. If vaccines had not come along in record time, thereís no case for lockdown strategies apart from stopping the health system being overwhelmed, because the virus cannot be stopped and will become endemic and, eventually, non deadly.

Government strategy has now clearly switched to keep lockdowns going until vaccination. Iím not even saying thatís the wrong strategy, but tell it like it is instead of lies and spin.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 09:22 AM  
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Nor am I sure what youíre saying.
It was front and centre in the famous Imperial College report on March 16 - suppression has to have an exit strategy.

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package Ė or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission Ė will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) Ė given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
They did overlook, though, that lockdown bought time for better treatment regimens and understanding of vulnerability.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 10:12 AM  
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Originally Posted by YorkshireT View Post
Interestingly itís clear from this that lockdowns are a total waste of time save for trying to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed or kicking the can down the road in the hope a vaccine will save you.
Sounds like two really good reasons right there... I watch nbc nightly news and some of the hospitals in the US are in a horrifying place right now... and itís going to get worse there.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 10:15 AM  
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What do you think the impact on the death toll of not mitigating would have been YT?
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Old 27 Nov 20, 11:51 AM  
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Originally Posted by sam_b View Post
Sounds like two really good reasons right there... I watch nbc nightly news and some of the hospitals in the US are in a horrifying place right now... and itís going to get worse there.
I does smack a bit of "Brakes are worthless apart from slowing the car down and avoiding crashes."

We knew before lockdown started that there were three routes:

- Do nothing, and face the certainty of hospitals being overwhelmed and a huge death toll
- Mitigation on the "flattening the curve" strategy to get herd immunity through exposure, resulting in potentially overwhelming the hospitals and a large butcher's bill on the level of hundreds of thousands of deaths
- Suppression through lockdown and targeted restrictions, stopping the hospitals being overwhelmed and incurring those deaths early on, but without an exit strategy short of a vaccine or an effective treatment.

Looks like the right route was followed. Vaccines being keyed up for deployment right now. We've still incurred around 60,000 deaths and climbing, but we know it would have been several times that number had we gone another route.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 01:57 PM  
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Must get my DD to have a read then, she's a doctor, working in a hospital near Glasgow. Had the worst shift of her entire life last week. Lost several patients, ran out of CPAP machines, turning doctors rooms and cupboards into spaces for patients.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 02:03 PM  
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Originally Posted by MinniMouse View Post
Must get my DD to have a read then, she's a doctor, working in a hospital near Glasgow. Had the worst shift of her entire life last week. Lost several patients, ran out of CPAP machines, turning doctors rooms and cupboards into spaces for patients.
Far too much of this going on this year and it's heartbreaking to read 'lockdown didn't work', 'masks don't work', yadda yadda yadda.

I'm sure most HCPs wish they could sit behind a keyboard stating measures don't work rather than actually witnessing and dealing with the horrors most people are oblivious to or just reading & disregarding as a %.
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Old 27 Nov 20, 02:37 PM  
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Originally Posted by MinniMouse View Post
Must get my DD to have a read then, she's a doctor, working in a hospital near Glasgow. Had the worst shift of her entire life last week. Lost several patients, ran out of CPAP machines, turning doctors rooms and cupboards into spaces for patients.
I think you are misunderstanding.

The book is about what happens when a new coronavirus gets into the population has becomes endemic.

Itís how it works itís way through a population, you canít stop it, then eventually we get to a stage where it becomes less deadly.

So if you read my post, I said this means that UNLESS you get a vaccine or UNLESS you use them to stop overflowing of hospitals, then lockdowns are useless as you cannot eradicate the disease and you must let nature take its course.

So for example, if we didnít have a vaccine coming, which 20 years ago we may not have done, the only outcome would be for 60-80% of the population to get it. You may turn lockdowns on and off to try and mitigate hospitals being overrun (which none ever have been) but lockdowns donít save lives unless you delay matters long enough to get the vaccine. Even then, youíve ignored the mass of death and destruction from the lockdown which could last for decades.

So in otherwords, had we not had the vaccine coming, weíd have had to take it on the chin- people will die, thatís what pandemics do. And without the vaccine the end result will be exactly the same. In fact thereís plenty of research papers that show lock downs make it worse as it exposes the vulnerable population for a much longer period of time, and during this period more people enter the vulnerable group.

I am unsure what part of the sentence in my post

ď Interestingly itís clear from this that lockdowns are a total waste of time save for trying to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed or kicking the can down the road in the hope a vaccine will save you.Ē people are so upset about because that is surely a pretty logical conclusion unless you propose a permanent lockdown, forever. Fortunately in this case itís looking like the vaccine will save us, which is why government has suddenly kicked into lockdown until then mode.
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