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Old 9 Nov 20, 02:58 PM  
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#1
bunts
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March or September, holding the nerve or change.

We should be out in Florida now but changed our holiday back in august to March next year thinking things would start getting a little bit more normal here anyway if not in florida, but with this 2nd lockdown the other half is saying push it back again to last 2 weeks of September.
Some advise and others thoughts would be appreciated before an attempt to contact virgin for a change I know it’s probably going to more expensive.
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Old 9 Nov 20, 03:13 PM  
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Ingram01
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Personally, I think March is unlikely. I'm still questioning on our June trip. I think September is probably OK, but it depends on how Biden decides to handle things.

It depends on how comfortable you would be with the restrictions if you were allowed to go. If it was me I would hold out. If it gets cancelled then you should get your money back and have more flexibility to rearrange. If it doesn't get cancelled, then things must have have improved and you can go.
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Old 9 Nov 20, 04:10 PM  
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sha9
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I’m optimistic for September, especially after today’s vaccine news. Not so much for March though. I would push it until later in the year personally.
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Old 9 Nov 20, 06:38 PM  
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I think March is unlikely. I would have hope for September though, so I would move it.
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Old 9 Nov 20, 06:53 PM  
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Thorpy
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As above the vaccine news is promising, but I think it's also a bit premature as the sample size is just 94 people, and only "some" of them got the vaccine, with others on the placebo. 90% of some portion of 94 is not a lot of people, and certainly won't be enough of the various key demographics to be relying on the effectiveness.

If it does scale up, then it does somewhat accelerate the timeline to normality though. I think March is still a bit close to Winter for numbers to start to really come down but you never know. I'd take the relative costs into account, and also how much you need a holiday. Then look at when a decision has to be made by. It's pointless stressing over it now when things are changing daily and you don't have to decide until January...decide then.
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Old 15 Nov 20, 11:20 AM  
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bunts
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Well just a little update thank you for your advise phoned virgin and got it all changed to last 2 weeks of September and it’s cheaper.
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Old 15 Nov 20, 04:03 PM  
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fiffio
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That’s not true thorpy.

The full sample size is 43,500 and of those they had to wait until there were 94 confirmed covid cases (likely only confirmed once symptoms presented as they are not routinely tested).

So this means they looked at the 94 confirmed cases and 90% of them came from the placebo group. If the vaccine works then you wouldn’t expect many confirmed cv cases from half the participants and if a large amount of people in the placebo group are asymptomatic, under 60, wearing masks and under lockdown etc it would take a while to confirm the case numbers required.

The trial will complete when there are 164 confirmed cv cases in the placebo group.

Edited at 04:19 PM.
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Old 15 Nov 20, 04:10 PM  
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aprilshack
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Originally Posted by bunts View Post
Well just a little update thank you for your advise phoned virgin and got it all changed to last 2 weeks of September and it’s cheaper.
Further it can be pushed back, better the chances of the air corridor being open, things looking more normal so you have made the right decision.
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Old 15 Nov 20, 10:32 PM  
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Thorpy
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Originally Posted by fiffio View Post
That’s not true thorpy.

The full sample size is 43,500 and of those they had to wait until there were 94 confirmed covid cases (likely only confirmed once symptoms presented as they are not routinely tested).

So this means they looked at the 94 confirmed cases and 90% of them came from the placebo group. If the vaccine works then you wouldn’t expect many confirmed cv cases from half the participants and if a large amount of people in the placebo group are asymptomatic, under 60, wearing masks and under lockdown etc it would take a while to confirm the case numbers required.

The trial will complete when there are 164 confirmed cv cases in the placebo group.
Thanks. I either misread or it was presented badly.
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