Honest opinion on April 2021

[KarenG]

Originally Posted by Pupbelly

I think 1RGJ the thing is once there is the slightest whiff of flights being allowed back to the USA the prices will skyrocket with out a doubt and the demand will be barmy. Whilst there is an element of ‘risk’ booking now, you can be assured of getting what you want went you want at a relatively sensible price. Don’t forget there are a bucketload of folk deferring holidays from this year plus all the normal bookings so next year will potentially be rammed.
Will those of us who have booked actually get to go? Who knows, but I’m confident that prices will be higher in 2021.

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I’m not sure demand will be high - we are in the worst period of economic decline in recent history. Prices may sky rocket but that could be because there will be a lot less flights.

All the economic reports I’ve read suggest nobody expects recovery to 2019 levels for three to five years (just a guess, but it’s been pretty unanimous!). It will be like 2008 and the years after but amplified massively.

Disney have mothballed resorts, they are clearly not particularly optimistic of an immediate short term recovery.

[Guest]

I changed my newly cancelled December trip yesterday for April 6th,crossing my fingers for this one, if it doesn't happen then we'll change it again. At some point we'll need to all start living again, we can't shut the world down forever 🙄

[Bal]

I keep seeing things like “I’m sure flights will be running by then” etc. Flights are running now and have been throughout.

In my opinion, it’s going to be a hard winter for UK and USA. Also, likely the Trump is going to lose the election and quite hard I think. So we will probably see USA move into an even more protective state under Biden. He will look to bring transmittal down rapidly, so more interventions. I would be surprised frankly travel was opened before April. Direction of travel of this crisis would need to significantly change. USA doesn’t need British tourism a huge amount economically, no where near as much as vice versa. Vaccines and rapid testing may have some positive effect, but as these are not in place yet and need a long time to implement over large populations. Even if tourism does open it won’t be normal experience. I think we will get better and better at living with it during 2021 but the aim for normality (no social distancing, no masks etc. is 2022.)

[Bal]

Originally Posted by Scotsmomma

I changed my newly cancelled December trip yesterday for April 6th,crossing my fingers for this one, if it doesn't happen then we'll change it again. At some point we'll need to all start living again, we can't shut the world down forever 🙄

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People keep saying that from this comfortable position we are in now. However the stark reality is once the news starts showing the consequence, hospitals and ICUs, mortality over normal charts spiking, exhausted nurses begging people to help them... governments all know that attitude will very quickly change. They are simply not going to allow it. So they’ll keep transmittal down and put massive funding into treatments and vaccines.

The governments strategy is vaccination. This can be done fairly rapidly (months) for those whom are vulnerable. It won’t be existing infrastructure, they’ll use the driving testing centres etcs. That’s the exit plan. Once that is complete, while quarantines may need to stay in effect we can ramp this crisis significantly downward in 2021 for the UK. We will also be able to potentially establish travel corridors with other nations with similar vaccination programs implemented.

[Guest]

If its 2022 Bal, then the world will have a lot more to worry about than Covid. 🤔

[tspill]

Originally Posted by FlyDriver

I can't see why you wouldn't book if you want to go? Nobody has the slightest clue what will happen with flights etc. My own personal opinion, I can't imagine even for a second that flights will not be running by April. Most have us have booked several flights as backups with free amendments and have nothing to lose. If I can't go, I wait another few months for my next flight and so on. Simple.

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Can I ask what magic you think will happen before April that you think will happen to allow flights to restart?
The only thing as far as I can see that will allow this and other areas to return to some sort of the normal we had before is mass vaccine. Until that happens, I cant see things changing much. I hope I am wrong though.

Sorting new flights and refunds etc. and shown by the many posts on the dibb and many other places shows there is much to lose in terms of anxiety and mental health.

So I am glad it is "Simple" for you.

[Bal]

Originally Posted by FlyDriver

Im hoping some common sense will prevail for a virus with a very high survival rate. Latest survival rates from the CDC.

0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70 & over: 94.6%

Yet we have the government massively overstating the risk from COVID whilst at the same time massively understating the risk from job losses, cancer and other serious health problems, mental health problems etc. The virus isnt going away but we can live with it sensibly like we do with more deadly diseases without destroying people's lives in other ways.

I already mentioned people are booking flights with BA with cancellation etc so there is no issue at all cancelling/getting a refund. I don't get why it's such a big problem, I've booked a few and won't lose a single penny?

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The issue isn’t deaths. Why don’t people understand this? It’s ICU capacity. Covid requires ICU intervention is around 19% of cases in vulnerable groups. At the moment, the number of vulnerable people that have it is small, but as the bottom of the triangle gets bigger (Young people etc.) so does the top. And we can only handle a small amount at any one time. Really is that simple. That’s what they are trying to avoid. Your tv screens been covered with people been ventalitated in expo halls by exhausted NHS nurses.

[Bal]

Originally Posted by FlyDriver

Oh we are still protecting the NHS now? I'm sure those Nightingale hospitals will be used for something useful one day...

Anyway, should probably keep this on topic, I'm sure there is a current issues forum where people can scare each other to death safely.

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I personally hope that contingency is never used. If it is, we’ve gone very wrong. At the moment cases are maybe 10 times lower per day than April and we thankfully brought it under control just in time then to just about not need them (London was used). Providing the measures work this time around and everybody is sensible we shouldn’t get anywhere close, but the next handful of weeks are critical.

[tspill]

Originally Posted by FlyDriver

Im hoping some common sense will prevail for a virus with a very high survival rate. Latest survival rates from the CDC.

0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70 & over: 94.6%

Yet we have the government massively overstating the risk from COVID whilst at the same time massively understating the risk from job losses, cancer and other serious health problems, mental health problems etc. The virus isnt going away but we can live with it sensibly like we do with more deadly diseases without destroying people's lives in other ways.

I already mentioned people are booking flights with BA with cancellation etc so there is no issue at all cancelling/getting a refund. I don't get why it's such a big problem, I've booked a few and won't lose a single penny?

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It is about way more than just mortality.
The whole world is fighting this terrible thing.
Are you saying that pretty much every country on the planet is wrong on this?

I can see how cancelling/refunds etc is no big deal for you. That is great. But for may others it has been a terrible time - just look at the many threads on here on exactly this.

[tspill]

Originally Posted by FlyDriver

Oh we are still protecting the NHS now? I'm sure those Nightingale hospitals will be used for something useful one day...

Anyway, should probably keep this on topic, I'm sure there is a current issues forum where people can scare each other to death safely.

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Why must you and others continually insult those with a different outlook/opinion than you. Some people are more cautious and some less so. No one is scaring anyone - they just have a different opinion.