Book BA flydrive or wait for Virgin prices?

[Katnic1]

We are looking at flying out next October half term into either Orlando, Tampa or Miami. The BA outward flight is on sale so I am just waiting for the return flight which will be in about a week.
I also wanted a price with Virgin for a flight only, but notice that they are about 3 weeks behind BA. Question is do I book BA as soon as they come out or wait for Virgin? Common sense would say that BA prices should be the cheapest the day they go on sale but is that actually the case? I should also point out that as it’s half term I am not flexible on the date.
(I know Virgin holidays flydrive prices are on sale but they want about £1100 per person for them!)

[Mickie]

Can’t help you but in a similar position. Watching prices for October half term. We can probably have a tiny bit of flexibility and go the Saturday or Sunday (Sunday usually cheaper) could go the Monday if prepared to come back and go pretty much straight to school/work. Wife and son both get 2 week half term so as long as we can get 10-12 nights we can be a little flexible.

However I will definitely be waiting til Virgin release their’s as ideally would book with miles. Realise with lack of flexibility that’s unlikely but managed it this year so have to at least try.

From what I can see of prices whilst the general trend is upwards the later you leave it they fluctuate so much there isn’t really a guaranteed pattern

[Guest]

I would definitely wait until Virgin prices are out so you can compare. I have never heard that flights are cheapest the day they come out and it doesn't seem like common sense to me at all.

[BevS97]

BA are not usually cheapest on day of release. Watch and wait until you see a good price.

[gjdjud]

Just to share my experience. I’m no expert on this and there are lots of variables. We are not going again until late July 2021 but I have been tracking prices for 2020 to get an idea of how much roughly I will need to pay. This is 2 adults 2 young adults.

I have looked daily since release day BA LGW to Tampa. I have also looked since release of flights Virgin LGW to MCO. BA flights were cheapest on release day. They stayed like it for a couple of days and then would rise and would repeat this. They would every now and again drop but not to release day price. After a month they were a £1000 more than release day. 2 and bit months on they are around £700 more than on release day.

As for Virgin they are way way more. Their price seems to fluctuate way more for my dates than BA. Release day so far was the best price but still £1100 more than BA and at worse they were £2200 more!

Like I said I’m no expert and there are lots of variables.

[Katnic1]

Thanks for everyone’s replies. Can anyone tell me what a good price for October half term is?
Last year we got a BA flydrive into Miami for £1800 for 16 nights but that was departing in August. (2 ad plus 2 teens and F grade suv) we booked that in September 2017.
Miami seems to be the cheapest option but I know prices have increased since last year. We were hoping to get under £2500 for flydrive.

What sort of price should a Virgin flight only be?

[MrIncredible]

Flights are never cheapest the day they go on sale.

You should be able to get a good price going that time of year.

[Ariel's Mum]

Our BA flights for 25/8 to 10/9 2020 were cheapest on release day. This was the day after the TC news was announced. Since then I've been checking and they have always been higher than what we paid. If the BA price is a good one I'd jump on it. As for what you can expect to pay I think October tends t be quite high because of school holiday.

[papasmurf]

I've spoken with BA yesterday as they have a glitch on their site which isnt allowing me to book an indirect flight from Glasgow.

The adviser I spoke to told me that they have only released the most expensive seats for October and the lower priced ones will be released in Dec/Jan.

No guarantees, but she told me to hold off booking.

[Katnic1]

I think I will see what the flydrive price is on the day of release and go from there.
We are a 4 hour drive from London, so virgin from MAN would be better, but now there’s no Thomas cook, Manchester flights seem impossible. Tui want £900 each for my dates!