Herd immunity by Monday.

Katenbeth · 8 Apr 21, 05:03 PM

Scientist believe that a tipping point will be reached on Monday 12th April.
Using real-time modelling, they believe the UK will reach herd immunity on that date.

**cartoonp** · 8 Apr 21, 05:18 PM

Yep from sky

news.sky/story/covid-19-...tists-12269405

kevin_cambs_uk · 11 Apr 21, 05:14 PM

Brilliant absolutely brilliant

lfc_sarah · 11 Apr 21, 05:15 PM

Whoh I had no idea it would be this soon!

Pinchy · 11 Apr 21, 05:19 PM

It won't be. It's a bit naughty because herd immunity normally refers to a population with no NPIs. As soon as we ease the NPIs we will require much higher levels of vaccination for herd immunity.

Rac20 · 11 Apr 21, 07:48 PM

Originally Posted by Pinchy

It won't be. It's a bit naughty because herd immunity normally refers to a population with no NPIs. As soon as we ease the NPIs we will require much higher levels of vaccination for herd immunity.

What is an NPI?

Pinchy · 11 Apr 21, 08:39 PM

Originally Posted by Rac20

What is an NPI?

A non-pharmaceutical intervention. So anything not vaccines or drugs, such as social distancing or masks.

Andy C · 15 Apr 21, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by Pinchy

It won't be. It's a bit naughty because herd immunity normally refers to a population with no NPIs. As soon as we ease the NPIs we will require much higher levels of vaccination for herd immunity.

Unfortunately, this^^^

Friston is defining "R below 1 with restrictions/lockdown" as "herd immunity", which isn't much use.
To be fair, he does emphasise that as soon as we release restrictions, R will rise back above 1 under his model, but for some reason, the media outlets reporting this study have glossed over that point...

11 Apr 21, 05:14 PM	#3
	11 Apr 21, 05:14 PM kevin_cambs_uk Imagineer
kevin_cambs_uk Imagineer Join Date: Oct 12	Brilliant absolutely brilliant __________________ 1997 - Ho Jo Maingate West. 1998 - Orange Lakes 2000 - Ho Jo Maingate West. 2002 - Ho Jo Maingate West. 2003 - Caribbean Beach. 2004 - Forgot where we stayed. 2008 - Pop Century. 2012 - Disneyland Paris for the day. 2015 - Contemporary Resort - 7 days, POFQ - 3 days. 2016 Tokyo Disneyland and Disney Sea. 2018 Contemporary and Wilderness Lodge

11 Apr 21, 05:19 PM	#5
	11 Apr 21, 05:19 PM Pinchy Imagineer
Pinchy Imagineer Join Date: Nov 07	It won't be. It's a bit naughty because herd immunity normally refers to a population with no NPIs. As soon as we ease the NPIs we will require much higher levels of vaccination for herd immunity.