Is something significant happening in WDW 1st week of March?

[elliecat]

I had an email from them too today, but i am going 23rd Jan to 13th Feb and all of my dates have increased, on one day hollywood studios has increased from a 4 to a 10.

[Tinkerbell]

There are lots of unhappy people on the TP site. Has the DIBB updated is busy day guide

[wycombedad]

Some of the changes are plainly nonsense, they claim Animal Kingdom is a crowd level 10 out of 10 for nine out of ten days at the beginning of March. That's busier than Christmas.
If some of them are that plainly wrong you can't trust the rest. Undercover tourist's busy day planner still has that all as low crowds, and they are based on their own tickets sales not algorithms. So don't panic, yet...

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by wycombedad

Some of the changes are plainly nonsense, they claim Animal Kingdom is a crowd level 10 out of 10 for nine out of ten days at the beginning of March. That's busier than Christmas.

See more...

Ah, but you have to remember that a 10 out of 10 in March is different to a 10 out of 10 at Christmas. It doesn’t mean it will be as busy as Christmas. At least, that’s what the folk at TP have said in the past.

And that’s one of the reasons why I don’t tend to use TP’s crowd levels.

[Tinkerbell]

Originally Posted by Nimbus

Ah, but you have to remember that a 10 out of 10 in March is different to a 10 out of 10 at Christmas. It doesn’t mean it will be as busy as Christmas. At least, that’s what the folk at TP have said in the past.

And that’s one of the reasons why I don’t tend to use TP’s crowd levels.

See more...

And, from what I have read , the crowd levels are actually based on wait times for rides? So just because long waits doesn’t mean park busy, or am I way off base

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by Eccle

Yes that is a good point, that all that was known already. It may just been they’ve made some general adjustments as I had notifications this morning for August too (mainly decreases rather than increases)

See more...

Yes, its beginning to sound like they made a tweak or two to their algorithms and then reran the predictions. So it doesn’t mean that the parks are actually expected to be any busier, it’s just that the way they calculate the number has changed. That’s all.

Which perhaps goes to show how meaningless their numbers are if a tweak can affect them so much.

Originally Posted by Tinkerbell

Has the DIBB updated is busy day guide

See more...

The DIBB doesn’t predict crowd levels.

Unless Disney has made some changes to its schedule or park hours or added new events, there’s no need to update the recommended parks.

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by Tinkerbell

And, from what I have read , the crowd levels are actually based on wait times for rides? So just because long waits doesn’t mean park busy, or am I way off base

See more...

Yes, you are correct. Wait times are the only measurement that any of the websites can use to determine whether a park is “busy” or not. And everyone mostly uses the ones provided by Disney. So, in effect, the number is a measure of wait time, not crowd level (although clearly there is some correlation).

I doubt TP has someone standing at the entrance to each park counting the number of people going in each day.

Of course, I’m assuming TP uses patterns of past wait times to predict future levels and doesn’t just base it on known future events (like EMH, parties, festivals, etc) and guess work (eg. MK will probably be busier at the beginning of the week because lots of visitors want to go there first).

[wycombedad]

Originally Posted by Nimbus

Ah, but you have to remember that a 10 out of 10 in March is different to a 10 out of 10 at Christmas. It doesn’t mean it will be as busy as Christmas. At least, that’s what the folk at TP have said in the past.

And that’s one of the reasons why I don’t tend to use TP’s crowd levels.

See more...

I saw that, although it does makes something of a nonsense of them altogether. If that's the case then nothing is comparable and they're pretty useless for determining when to go.

Sadly I'm following you and won't be using their crowd levels now, seems wise.

The real annoyance here is that they differ from when Dibb and Undercover Tourist recommend days, and I'm now locked in to ones that are not the best according to those. I've spent SO long planning all this, and really enjoyed it all, until they dropped this bombshell.

[wycombedad]

Originally Posted by Nimbus

Yes, you are correct. Wait times are the only measurement that any of the websites can use to determine whether a park is “busy” or not. And everyone mostly uses the ones provided by Disney. So, in effect, the number is a measure of wait time, not crowd level (although clearly there is some correlation).

See more...

Not exactly true.
Undercover Tourist actually sell tickets so they have hard evidence for their busy periods. Also all of them have other factors such as FPP availability.

Touring Plans have their own exclusive insight from the people using the Lines app to record actual waiting times vs what Disney state (which are often manipulated to move people around the parks). So that's incredibly useful.

I have no idea how Dibb got to theirs beyond historical data and EMH days etc.

[Andybear]

I never use any busy day guides in any shape or form. I just go to a park when I want to go to it.