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4 Feb 17, 02:10 PM |
#31
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Imagineer
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We’ve bashed heads on this for a while, so I’ll try and be as succinct as possible. Me being succinct is like expecting Donald Trump to sort out that hair
- To obtain significant stats you have to start somewhere. You even go on to imply that some sites are doing this already. So either it can be done to a degree of validity or it cannot. You cannot argue it both ways. - I trust you realise it's not too difficult to just ask people for their historical data. Commercial data is likely problematic (although networking works amazingly well), but academia is often public domain, and more often than not has more data than the commercial sector. - How can you be sure that the sites you link to have also carried out statistical tests? - Knowing data is statistically accurate does NOT invalidate experience or small amounts of data to qualify a belief. I don't have statistically significant data for the M25. In fact I have zero data. I can tell you though that I would trust my views on the fact that on a weekday midnight is going to be probability wise way way better than 8am. I presume you would argue two things, I don't have statistically significant data and that whatever I have is likely an anomaly?!? If someone asked me about it I wouldn't say "I can't tell you at all, because I have no statistically significant data to back it up". Likewise if someone asked about rope-drop vs. midday, I wouldn't say "no idea, it's all random and external factors play the biggest part." Yet this is precisely what a few people on here are arguing. Hey perhaps they just hate planning - I think it would be a good thing if the busy day guide made it clear, instead of waffle about how their technique is best etc etc. It's just the EMH that any fool can get from numerous sources - You say lots of people have analysed which time of year or which week it's best to visit. You don't know that, you just made that up? You assumed it true, just as I do. That's what we're all doing. In other words statistical significance when it suits, other times assumptions are just fine - Of course the DIBB may have done stats analysis, and simply not used it. Bit pedantic to raise that point. The fact is the busy day guide implies in the waffle something clever when in reality it's not As you say, they may have done it and concluded the EMH IS the significant factor... but unless they say that we can't be expected to assume it. - You are without doubt right about the impossibility of being accurate, but I have to say that's back to my M25 example. Sure at some point a midnight journey might result in a terrible hold up, but we're talking on average, generally. We all have experience of the parks. We all try them when they are claimed to be busy and when they are not. My findings match my experience. Admittedly I have to trawl umpteen sites to aggregate the data, but that's all part of the planning fun Edited at 02:11 PM. |
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5 Feb 17, 03:34 PM |
#32
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Imagineer
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I did expect an answer, I asked the question because I was curious to know why you needed that much detail. Nimbus and you have opened up a new world of planning that I will never enter into. Good luck to you.
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I'm going to live forever! Triple bypass done - so far so good! |
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5 Feb 17, 06:39 PM |
#33
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Proud to wear my Ears
Join Date: Sep 12
Location: Berkshire
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5 Feb 17, 06:40 PM |
#34
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Proud to wear my Ears
Join Date: Sep 12
Location: Berkshire
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5 Feb 17, 09:35 PM |
#35
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Imagineer
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Sorry, I thought you were giving us planoholics a gentle dig. Us planners are touchy buggers
Absolutely agree. Back in the day we could wander about Main St. looking in the shops at this and that. Nowadays it's a herd of elephants rushing for 7DMT as the rope drops. Admittedly I love the planning, but people who don't plan must love waiting in the line. So I think the planning is less about us being inflexible control freaks and more about avoiding the nightmare of crowds and lines |
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6 Feb 17, 04:26 PM |
#36
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Imagineer
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I'm arguing that none of the sites that are doing something with day-to-day stats are doing so with any degree of validity. It's all guesswork because there are too many variables.
Day-to-day analysis to determine which park it is best to visit on different days is a different kettle of fish to the general crowd calendars which identify the best times of year to visit. But what data do you want? What data do you need? Visitor numbers, wait times, weather, south American economy? In order to measure, say, crowd levels then you need data on the number of visitors into each park per day. Of course, that doesn't measure wait times at the parks. Now you're making my point for me. Most busy day guides - like the DIBB - don't use actual data. They use assumptions. They assume a park will be busier than the others because it has EMH. They assume a park will be busier at the beginning of the week rather than at the end of the week. Etc. But no one knows whether those assumptions are (still) true. Based on a quick look at the historic wait times on the DIBB, some of those assumptions appear to be totally wrong. But I don't know whether I've just picked an atypical month/year or whether they are always wrong. So how will you know whether the assumptions/conclusions you make from looking at some data are good assumptions/conclusions? How do you plan on testing them? With the M25 example, you can go out at 8am and 12am for a few days and see for yourself that it's definitely busier at 8am. How do you test that MK is recommended on Thurs 9th Feb whereas Epcot isn't? Measuring the crowd level on that day isn't going to work - MK will have more visitors than Epcot. If you can come up with some verified hypotheses - like the M25 being busier during morning rush hour - then great. There are some that are highly probable - the parks are busier in the middle of the day than in the first and last hours - and the data confirms those assumptions. But that's not much use when trying to calculate a busy day guide.
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10 Feb 17, 09:43 AM |
#37
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Imagineer
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Not sure why, but you seem keen to discuss the busy day guide I'll go with the flow...
Quotes directly from the guide... "This Busy Day Guide / Crowd Calendar should be taken only as a guide to crowd levels." What else can you take it for? "Although we try to make this crowd calendar as accurate as possible for each day..." How? I heard it was just EMH. ", there are many factors that can influence the crowd levels at any of the theme parks on any given day." I know, but we don't really care. All we'd like to know is if we can pre-determine it in some way and to some degree of validity. Apparently DIBB thinks so, as do I. Nimbus on the other hand thinks that even the M25 being busy at certain times of day is hypothetical and unqualified "As a general rule the crowd calendar below is accurate, however please keep in mind the following:" Sounds promising, presumably it's post-fact checked?!? "Walt Disney World Magic Kingdom has the highest attendance record year by year." Right, but the park might be able to handle those crowds better than a less busy park. Qualified stats will be able to tell us that. "Walt Disney World Extra Magic Hours (EMH) will influence the crowd levels." Maybe, but again qualified stats will help with that. "If a Disney park has EMH then it will usually be much busier on that day." As above... "We recommend that if you are not staying in a Disney resort or are not intending to take advantage of EMH days then you should plan to visit a Disney theme park the day before or the day after it's scheduled EMH day." As above... "Disney Water Parks usually have busier days at the weekends and public holidays." As above... "Crowd levels in any of the theme parks are seasonal. See When To Visit." Makes sense... sounds again like stats are being used here. Still based on stats though. I would like to have the GPS coordinates of anyone within the parks at any given point in time. The number of people in line at any attraction, eatery... etc at any point in time. The throughput of any attraction, eatery at any point in time. The throughput in and out of the park at any point in time. Surveys to qualify. I'm sure there's plenty more but that's a nice start I'm sure Disney management are asking for the exact same things and for great reasons. Maybe you should fire off an email to them about how stats and the weather make data mining pointless Eventually patterns emerge. Nature of the stats. Same for the M25 example. 8am might be an anomaly at first, eventually not so much. Parks are more complex obviously but it doesn't invalidate the process. That's why Disney collects all this data. Not for our benefit but for theirs. Data is deemed "good" as you put it by qualified stats. Surveys etc. Surveys. |
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10 Feb 17, 10:57 AM |
#38
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Guest
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