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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:27 PM  
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Andy C
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Analysis Thread Two: Stats Boogaloo

As promised, now Pinchy's thread got to the astonishing level of 10,000 posts (and I notice that I won the teddy bear there ), I'll start a new one here.

This thread will be where I post my own updates and analysis, and others who do so are also invited.

I can always edit this post later to make it sound more sage and intelligent, of course.
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:32 PM  
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Mr Andy
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Edit- answered in previous thread!
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:39 PM  
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Andy C
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To actually put a little content in to start the thread:

- Huge jump in cases reported today, and even the incomplete cases-by-specimen-date from the 13th has past 65,000 on the day.

- Still minimal hospitalisations-against-Omicron data from the UK. The uptick in London coincides with an uptick in Delta there as well (Delta hasn't gone away; at least, not yet)

- Data from South Africa is pointing towards lower hospitalisation rates (could be as little as a third the rate against infection that we've previously seen). This could be down to lower virulence, more likely down to higher immunity levels than before and Omicron having a much enhanced capability of breaking through the first defence (antibodies) to cause illness, but not the second line (T-cells) to cause severe illness[1]

- With that in mind, we are likely to have co-circulation of Delta and Omicron for a few weeks. Just because Omicron does better doesn't mean that Delta can't still transmit effectively when it gets the chance. Although it should start falling anyway around now - partly because even the younger groups are now seeing declining Delta cases at last, and partly because we'll be isolating more, anyway, with more of us ill with Omicron.

- Unpleasantly, it appears possible to contract Delta and Omicron simultaneously, although you'd have to be extremely unlucky.

- Booster rates in overdrive, but this is being performed by an exhausted NHS and support system that are totally on their chin-straps. If you can show any level of support to them, please do.
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:43 PM  
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Mr Andy
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Originally Posted by Andy C View Post
To actually put a little content in to start the thread:

- Huge jump in cases reported today, and even the incomplete cases-by-specimen-date from the 13th has past 65,000 on the day.

- Still minimal hospitalisations-against-Omicron data from the UK. The uptick in London coincides with an uptick in Delta there as well (Delta hasn't gone away; at least, not yet)

- Data from South Africa is pointing towards lower hospitalisation rates (could be as little as a third the rate against infection that we've previously seen). This could be down to lower virulence, more likely down to higher immunity levels than before and Omicron having a much enhanced capability of breaking through the first defence (antibodies) to cause illness, but not the second line (T-cells) to cause severe illness[1]

- With that in mind, we are likely to have co-circulation of Delta and Omicron for a few weeks. Just because Omicron does better doesn't mean that Delta can't still transmit effectively when it gets the chance. Although it should start falling anyway around now - partly because even the younger groups are now seeing declining Delta cases at last, and partly because we'll be isolating more, anyway, with more of us ill with Omicron.

- Unpleasantly, it appears possible to contract Delta and Omicron simultaneously, although you'd have to be extremely unlucky.

- Booster rates in overdrive, but this is being performed by an exhausted NHS and support system that are totally on their chin-straps. If you can show any level of support to them, please do.
South Africa has a much lower vaccination rate than the UK as well which could be a positive (for us).
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:45 PM  
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Pinchy
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The suitably co-infected will also be producing Delta/Omicron mutants so lets hope none of them take off.
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:47 PM  
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Redsnapper
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Originally Posted by Pinchy View Post
The suitably co-infected will also be producing Delta/Omicron mutants so lets hope none of them take off.
What would we do without you constantly looking on the bright side...
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:49 PM  
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Ld1978
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Thanks Andy will be following with interest
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:56 PM  
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Pinchy
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Originally Posted by Redsnapper View Post
What would we do without you constantly looking on the bright side...
It was starting to get a bit too festive in here.
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Old 15 Dec 21, 05:58 PM  
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2waterford
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Originally Posted by Pinchy View Post
The suitably co-infected will also be producing Delta/Omicron mutants so lets hope none of them take off.
How are we ever going to move on from this 😢😢
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Old 15 Dec 21, 06:00 PM  
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Andy C
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Originally Posted by Pinchy View Post
The suitably co-infected will also be producing Delta/Omicron mutants so lets hope none of them take off.
Firstly, they'll be very rare and extremely unfortunate cases

Secondly, 95%+ will already have considerable immunity


Thirdly, there are limits on how far it can mutate and remain viable.
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