When will Copper Creek sell out? Anyone know?

[YorkshireT]

Originally Posted by act1980

Is that how many points you’re buying? We’re trying to decide on either the 107 or 150 as the dues are obviously higher and we already have a week at the Poly. The good thing with CC compared to the Poly is the the date range for 107 is wider! 👍🏼

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Dues are often overlooked. They increase compound at around 5% pa and the buy in price pales into insignificance over the life of the contract.
There are many online compound interest calculators- put the different resort dues in for your anticipated contract points and look at it over 30 years with a 5%pa increase. A dollar, couple of dollars extra now, can make a massive difference over 30 years.

[act1980]

Originally Posted by YorkshireT

Dues are often overlooked. They increase compound at around 5% pa and the buy in price pales into insignificance over the life of the contract.
There are many online compound interest calculators- put the different resort dues in for your anticipated contract points and look at it over 30 years with a 5%pa increase. A dollar, couple of dollars extra now, can make a massive difference over 30 years.

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This is what we’re thinking. We did the same for the Poly hence why we only bought 130 points to begin with. Decided we want to go at least once a year now which is why we’re buying more. Although the dues will increase DVC will still work out way cheaper in the long run, hotels are already crazy money now and the cost to park at the parks is only going to increase also. For us DVC is a wise investment to hopefully protect us from those further increases and add ons 🤞🏼

[YorkshireT]

Originally Posted by act1980

This is what we’re thinking. We did the same for the Poly hence why we only bought 130 points to begin with. Decided we want to go at least once a year now which is why we’re buying more. Although the dues will increase DVC will still work out way cheaper in the long run, hotels are already crazy money now and the cost to park at the parks is only going to increase also. For us DVC is a wise investment to hopefully protect us from those further increases and add ons 🤞🏼

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Yes you are right, hotel rooms have increased at a similar or higher rate, and now through the 50th, if the economy in USA remains good, this will accelerate in my view.

BUT hotel rates will have a ceiling when people chose not to pay the price. Also if there is a recession, rates will be cut and deals will be in abundance.

All the while the DVC dues will keep going up.

I think DVCMC has to get a grip on dues inflation because if it carries on as it is, the dues will be massive, and the higher the resort is now, it is likely to see the biggest increases.

I can see these boards in 20 years time, people saying the dues are killing them and they wish they’d bought a cheaper dues resort.

Of course if the dues become too high, then this will also impact resale value.

Let’s hope hotel rates keep inflating above dues in the long term and any downtick is temporary.

Here’s some rough and ready calculations which necessarily require one to speculate or make educated guesses.

So for example, 200 SSR points is now $1170 in dues. If it raises 5%pa, that’s $3104pa in 20 years, and $5056 in 30 years. Long way off, but a big increase because of the compounding.

Copper creek would be $1452 pa. In 20 years $3852 and in 30 years $6275.

So the current $282 difference becomes $948 in 20 years and $1219 pa in 30.

Don’t even look at Vero Beach, anyone who thinks they are saving by buying a cheaper contract there are very mistaken.

At the moment you can rent those copper creek points at say $2800 from David’s. So buying gets you currently just under $1400 each time in savings compared to renting based on dues. Of course this doesn’t take into a account the time cost of money and how that buy in money could have increased had it been put in an investment.

Now, general inflation has run at 3.18% over the last 100 years, but the last 30 years it is much lower, under 2.5% I cannot get any reliable data on room rate increases at WDW over the last 30 years but they have I suspect run higher than inflation. However, since the Eisner years they have been inflated a lot, more so the last decade and they will hit a ceiling. Thus for this calculation, I would speculate that 3% pa on average, also assuming we will see some recession is probably quite realistic and likely to run above inflation. I assume David’s would follow a similar increase. David’s has been very slow to increase prices.

In 20 years renting those David’s points instead of buying could cost you 5057 against dues of $3852. So savings there still but not as good. By 30 years the David’s rental would be $6792, only $500 saving. At SSR, saving would still be near $1800 a time.

Go on past 30 years and potentially unless DVDMC get a grip on dues, you would actually be paying more in dues than rack rates- it is a possibility, and then you’d have to take a hit on your own rentals as David’s has to rent under rack rate.

I appreciate an awful lot of speculation on this, but I wouldn’t assume DVC will be a brilliant investment very long term. I’ve read the average length of ownership is 15 years many times, but I don’t know where that data came from.

I think with DVC a key long term is keeping eye on trends and offloading at the right time if savings become eroded- before contract value plummets, and also before it is hit too much by end date.

Against all of this, is the fact that at the moment, DVD want to keep selling new properties and making huge profits. If that continues they will have to take action to make it still look attractive to new buyers.

[act1980]

Originally Posted by YorkshireT

Yes you are right, hotel rooms have increased at a similar or higher rate, and now through the 50th, if the economy in USA remains good, this will accelerate in my view.

BUT hotel rates will have a ceiling when people chose not to pay the price. Also if there is a recession, rates will be cut and deals will be in abundance.

All the while the DVC dues will keep going up.

I think DVCMC has to get a grip on dues inflation because if it carries on as it is, the dues will be massive, and the higher the resort is now, it is likely to see the biggest increases.

I can see these boards in 20 years time, people saying the dues are killing them and they wish they’d bought a cheaper dues resort.

Of course if the dues become too high, then this will also impact resale value.

Let’s hope hotel rates keep inflating above dues in the long term and any downtick is temporary.

Here’s some rough and ready calculations which necessarily require one to speculate or make educated guesses.

So for example, 200 SSR points is now $1170 in dues. If it raises 5%pa, that’s $3104pa in 20 years, and $5056 in 30 years. Long way off, but a big increase because of the compounding.

Copper creek would be $1452 pa. In 20 years $3852 and in 30 years $6275.

So the current $282 difference becomes $948 in 20 years and $1219 pa in 30.

Don’t even look at Vero Beach, anyone who thinks they are saving by buying a cheaper contract there are very mistaken.

At the moment you can rent those copper creek points at say $2800 from David’s. So buying gets you currently just under $1400 each time in savings compared to renting based on dues. Of course this doesn’t take into a account the time cost of money and how that buy in money could have increased had it been put in an investment.

Now, general inflation has run at 3.18% over the last 100 years, but the last 30 years it is much lower, under 2.5% I cannot get any reliable data on room rate increases at WDW over the last 30 years but they have I suspect run higher than inflation. However, since the Eisner years they have been inflated a lot, more so the last decade and they will hit a ceiling. Thus for this calculation, I would speculate that 3% pa on average, also assuming we will see some recession is probably quite realistic and likely to run above inflation. I assume David’s would follow a similar increase. David’s has been very slow to increase prices.

In 20 years renting those David’s points instead of buying could cost you 5057 against dues of $3852. So savings there still but not as good. By 30 years the David’s rental would be $6792, only $500 saving. At SSR, saving would still be near $1800 a time.

Go on past 30 years and potentially unless DVDMC get a grip on dues, you would actually be paying more in dues than rack rates- it is a possibility, and then you’d have to take a hit on your own rentals as David’s has to rent under rack rate.

I appreciate an awful lot of speculation on this, but I wouldn’t assume DVC will be a brilliant investment very long term. I’ve read the average length of ownership is 15 years many times, but I don’t know where that data came from.

I think with DVC a key long term is keeping eye on trends and offloading at the right time if savings become eroded- before contract value plummets, and also before it is hit too much by end date.

Against all of this, is the fact that at the moment, DVD want to keep selling new properties and making huge profits. If that continues they will have to take action to make it still look attractive to new buyers.

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The dues do scare me a bit because we don't really know how much they will increase each year. The exchange rate also massively affects how much they cost us too and that can't be predicted either, we can only hope that our £ will get stronger soon.

What I find odd is that the dues on say CC are higher than GF and BLT. Surely the dues on the more expensive properties would be higher? I have no idea how they work it out

[YorkshireT]

Originally Posted by act1980

The dues do scare me a bit because we don't really know how much they will increase each year. The exchange rate also massively affects how much they cost us too and that can't be predicted either, we can only hope that our £ will get stronger soon.

What I find odd is that the dues on say CC are higher than GF and BLT. Surely the dues on the more expensive properties would be higher? I have no idea how they work it out

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Dues are directly related to cost of running it, and importantly property taxes. It's also not clear how DVC / Disney allocate those expenses in shared properties with the hotel- as many of the hotel running costs are loaded onto dues, in a win/win for Disney. Taxes are high at CCV and there's relatively few rooms, but owners are contributing to Wilderness Lodge running costs.
SSR is always a good bet on dues simply because of the size- more people to pay for the pools, grounds etc.

[Hendriks]

Dear Pooh Bear
Did you buy points at $182 a point or $177?

My working out of 200 points and $2500 == $169.5

[PoohBears#1fan]

Originally Posted by Hendriks

Dear Pooh Bear
Did you buy points at $182 a point or $177?

My working out of 200 points and $2500 == $169.5

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The deal we locked in works out at $162 a point + closing. We’re signing today at the sales centre. It’s the direct add on incentive that was running when I first spoke to my guide.