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Old 8 Sep 20, 05:28 AM  
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#1
Pinchy
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Growth of cases now exponential

The UK seems to be entering a new phase of the pandemic as cases are now rising as fast as they did in the first wave.

Two SAGE members have now warned about the sharp increase:

bbc/news/uk-54066831

and it seems we are soon going to be faced with the difficult decisions over how to deal with it.



As only a small percentage of the population have already been affected the millions of more vulnerable people including the 1.5 million who were shielded will have to be protected. This means either they will be advised to return to some form of shielding or the easing of lockdown will have to be reversed as Downing Street has already said.

Asking people to shield again will be deeply unpopular as will the alternative to backtrack on some of the measures already eased.

I think we will see the return of pubs v schools and for now pubs will probably lose.
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Old 8 Sep 20, 06:36 AM  
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inky1
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I was asked to shield until 16/8/20
I have been working from home since May AND shielding AND facilitating the work the school sent home - Itís bloody grim
To cap it all DH has been made redundant.
Regardless of whether we are asked to shield again I have said from the start of the easing this is the dangerous bit.
Stupid people who will suffer no consequences themselves but s mild illness will spread it.
I think the Government will have to make really difficult decisions
The country will be on its knees if there are further widespread lockdowns and a whole generation of kids will have their futures jeopardised.
We need s vaccine and we need it quick !
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Old 8 Sep 20, 06:55 AM  
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jstephens
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let's not forgot we are testing a lot more now than back in April. The daily cases in April was way off
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Old 8 Sep 20, 06:58 AM  
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FamilyGWales
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I agree Pinchy.

Not unexpected, but still some difficult choices ahead going into winter.
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Old 8 Sep 20, 07:18 AM  
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Mazbar
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In the first phase I thought infection was doubled every 3 days. So if it was the same today we will see infection at 6000. We will also start to see hospitals having massive increase in patients. Or is this the expected increase that the easing of restrictions would bring. To be perfectly honest I donít care about the amount of infection as long as the death rate remains low.
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Old 8 Sep 20, 07:44 AM  
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Tinkerbell
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Originally Posted by Pinchy View Post
The UK seems to be entering a new phase of the pandemic as cases are now rising as fast as they did in the first wave.

Two SAGE members have now warned about the sharp increase:

bbc/news/uk-54066831

and it seems we are soon going to be faced with the difficult decisions over how to deal with it.



As only a small percentage of the population have already been affected the millions of more vulnerable people including the 1.5 million who were shielded will have to be protected. This means either they will be advised to return to some form of shielding or the easing of lockdown will have to be reversed as Downing Street has already said.

Asking people to shield again will be deeply unpopular as will the alternative to backtrack on some of the measures already eased.

I think we will see the return of pubs v schools and for now pubs will probably lose.

What I have to ask though is, is this news?

Did anyone with a brain think that as lockdowns eased, as schools returned, as the furlough scheme ended that the virus, that never went away from the first wave, as itís called, would suddenly think to itself, oh look more people to infect better go somewhere else! The scientist have been saying since the beginning of this that getting out of it was the risky period.
I think many people misunderstand POVs like mine . Iím not dismissing the virus, Iíve seen nothing that dismisses the virus, I have seen no one argue that cases are not rising, only that, and the scientists seem to agree, that itís rising and that this is a time of caution, however rising cases alone do not mean a second wave or that there is a problem it means as individuals, especially if vulnerable, we need to be careful.
Back a the beginning of this, it was simply about keeping the NHS from being overwhelmed and without a vaccine itís the same principle now. That does not mean than six or sevens weeks from now, hospital admissions and death rates increase, they may they may not.
For those not socially distancing etc then they are the ones that need a ďtalkingĒ to, and I suspect those that do not which it apparently appears to be the young will probably continue to not do what they are told because when you are young your are invincible, you have not experienced death and for a vast majority of the U.K. population theyíve not really ever experienced disease on a mass scale, unlike our grandparents and the generations before us.

There will be some difficult decisions ahead for governments but I do not see a return to the beginning of this virus unless hospitals are overwhelmed and based on the fact that hospitals seem to be underwhelmed across specialities at the moment ( love to hear from a NHS worker if that is the case) then I donít see much changing
So again, daily rises are ( Iím a laymen, if you are an epidemiologist or an expert on disease please feel free to dismiss my viewpoint and direct me to scientific studies as opposed to newspaper articles from either side), to be expected as lockdowns ease and all that is associated. More testing equals more cases, people will die of covid, but thankfully the majority will recover, people need to protect themselves and other, people need to think about what dramatic headlines they chose as others who are fearful will be made more fearful, people need to consider that some folks are worried for many different reasons but finally and most of all, until we have a mass vaccination program this virus is here to stay, itís not going to get bored and disappear, it may or may not mutate, we may become immune we may not, we need to learn to live with it and to try and live our lives as normality as possible for the sake of our mental health, our children future and our economic stability. Thatís not putting the economy before health because the two are intrinsically linked, no jobs no taxes no NHS simples

Edited at 07:46 AM.
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Old 8 Sep 20, 07:46 AM  
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EssexSue
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I have just read on another thread that testing is being concentrated on already affected areas which I find very worrying as it means infection could run rife before discovered in so called safer areas.
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Old 8 Sep 20, 08:37 AM  
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Pinchy
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Originally Posted by Tinkerbell View Post
What I have to ask though is, is this news?

Did anyone with a brain think that as lockdowns eased, as schools returned, as the furlough scheme ended that the virus, that never went away from the first wave, as itís called, would suddenly think to itself, oh look more people to infect better go somewhere else! The scientist have been saying since the beginning of this that getting out of it was the risky period.
I think many people misunderstand POVs like mine . Iím not dismissing the virus, Iíve seen nothing that dismisses the virus, I have seen no one argue that cases are not rising, only that, and the scientists seem to agree, that itís rising and that this is a time of caution, however rising cases alone do not mean a second wave or that there is a problem it means as individuals, especially if vulnerable, we need to be careful.
Back a the beginning of this, it was simply about keeping the NHS from being overwhelmed and without a vaccine itís the same principle now. That does not mean than six or sevens weeks from now, hospital admissions and death rates increase, they may they may not.
For those not socially distancing etc then they are the ones that need a ďtalkingĒ to, and I suspect those that do not which it apparently appears to be the young will probably continue to not do what they are told because when you are young your are invincible, you have not experienced death and for a vast majority of the U.K. population theyíve not really ever experienced disease on a mass scale, unlike our grandparents and the generations before us.

There will be some difficult decisions ahead for governments but I do not see a return to the beginning of this virus unless hospitals are overwhelmed and based on the fact that hospitals seem to be underwhelmed across specialities at the moment ( love to hear from a NHS worker if that is the case) then I donít see much changing
So again, daily rises are ( Iím a laymen, if you are an epidemiologist or an expert on disease please feel free to dismiss my viewpoint and direct me to scientific studies as opposed to newspaper articles from either side), to be expected as lockdowns ease and all that is associated. More testing equals more cases, people will die of covid, but thankfully the majority will recover, people need to protect themselves and other, people need to think about what dramatic headlines they chose as others who are fearful will be made more fearful, people need to consider that some folks are worried for many different reasons but finally and most of all, until we have a mass vaccination program this virus is here to stay, itís not going to get bored and disappear, it may or may not mutate, we may become immune we may not, we need to learn to live with it and to try and live our lives as normality as possible for the sake of our mental health, our children future and our economic stability. Thatís not putting the economy before health because the two are intrinsically linked, no jobs no taxes no NHS simples
Thanks for the lengthy contribution most of which I cannot disagree with however, do you think restrictions will be re-introduced as promised?
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Old 8 Sep 20, 08:39 AM  
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dotb
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Originally Posted by Tinkerbell View Post
What I have to ask though is, is this news?

Did anyone with a brain think that as lockdowns eased, as schools returned, as the furlough scheme ended that the virus, that never went away from the first wave, as itís called, would suddenly think to itself, oh look more people to infect better go somewhere else! The scientist have been saying since the beginning of this that getting out of it was the risky period.
I think many people misunderstand POVs like mine . Iím not dismissing the virus, Iíve seen nothing that dismisses the virus, I have seen no one argue that cases are not rising, only that, and the scientists seem to agree, that itís rising and that this is a time of caution, however rising cases alone do not mean a second wave or that there is a problem it means as individuals, especially if vulnerable, we need to be careful.
Back a the beginning of this, it was simply about keeping the NHS from being overwhelmed and without a vaccine itís the same principle now. That does not mean than six or sevens weeks from now, hospital admissions and death rates increase, they may they may not.
For those not socially distancing etc then they are the ones that need a ďtalkingĒ to, and I suspect those that do not which it apparently appears to be the young will probably continue to not do what they are told because when you are young your are invincible, you have not experienced death and for a vast majority of the U.K. population theyíve not really ever experienced disease on a mass scale, unlike our grandparents and the generations before us.

There will be some difficult decisions ahead for governments but I do not see a return to the beginning of this virus unless hospitals are overwhelmed and based on the fact that hospitals seem to be underwhelmed across specialities at the moment ( love to hear from a NHS worker if that is the case) then I donít see much changing
So again, daily rises are ( Iím a laymen, if you are an epidemiologist or an expert on disease please feel free to dismiss my viewpoint and direct me to scientific studies as opposed to newspaper articles from either side), to be expected as lockdowns ease and all that is associated. More testing equals more cases, people will die of covid, but thankfully the majority will recover, people need to protect themselves and other, people need to think about what dramatic headlines they chose as others who are fearful will be made more fearful, people need to consider that some folks are worried for many different reasons but finally and most of all, until we have a mass vaccination program this virus is here to stay, itís not going to get bored and disappear, it may or may not mutate, we may become immune we may not, we need to learn to live with it and to try and live our lives as normality as possible for the sake of our mental health, our children future and our economic stability. Thatís not putting the economy before health because the two are intrinsically linked, no jobs no taxes no NHS simples
Well said, thatís how I feel/think, you have said it so much better than I could!
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Old 8 Sep 20, 08:49 AM  
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Bozza
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Originally Posted by Tinkerbell View Post
That does not mean than six or sevens weeks from now, hospital admissions and death rates increase, they may they may not.
This is the crux.

Do you push ahead and cross your fingers that "something has changed" and that exponential growth in virus spread does not translate into mass hospitalisations and deaths this time round?

Or do you take measures to try and restrict the spread of the virus so we can continue tip-toeing towards the holy grail of vaccine(s) that could restore a proper sense of normality to us all?

If rising cases do translate, again, to spiralling hospitalisations and deaths then it's too late. You can't turn back the clock to now and try to throttle the spread.

I think the debate on this comes down to those who are prepared to "gamble" that things will be different now, and those who are saying "I can see no hard evidence that things will be different, so I have to trust the experts charged with steering us through this to do their best to get it right."
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