Sterling forecast to fall to parity against the dollar - BBC

[TractorBoy]

Just done the shopping at our local Asda and the £ was $1.19!

[myaquarium]

Originally Posted by IndianaMac

If it were only to do with the strength of the dollar, explain its performance against the other currencies?

May 2016, pre-referendum

£1 = US$1.46
US$1 = Can$1.3
1Eur = US$1.11

Now

£1 - US$1.24
US$1 = Can$1.31
1Eur = US$1.12

The problem isn't a strong dollar - its value against Euro and Canadian Dollar (the place we're leaving and its nearest neighbour) is pretty much identical to three years ago.

The problem is the weak a$$ Pound.

The problem is Brexit uncertainty/lunacy (delete as to how polite one wants to be).

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You have basically agreed with what I said. The pound within the eu although a stand alone currency was much stronger prospect for the market. Once brexit was announced it depreciated to a value of its true worth. It’s only worth what someone will pay for it.if we leave the eu we could see more depreciation but eventually people within the market will see it as good value and then the market value will increase once people start buying into it.

[IndianaMac]

Originally Posted by myaquarium

You have basically agreed with what I said. The pound within the eu although a stand alone currency was much stronger prospect for the market. Once brexit was announced it depreciated to a value of its true worth. It’s only worth what someone will pay for it.if we leave the eu we could see more depreciation but eventually people within the market will see it as good value and then the market value will increase once people start buying into it.

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No, I really haven't...

My bold and underlined.

That's some real cognitive dissonance there.

The real value of the pound is indeed whatever the markets are willing to pay, and that is governed by forecasts, perceived stabilities, strengths etc... by voting to leave, the stability and strength once associated with the Pound went south, and effectively our country was weaker and poorer overnight, due entirely to our own government's actions of putting economic decisions in the hands of a laymen electorate.

The current weakness of the Pound is entirely our own making; it didn't depreciate to a value of its true worth (like for years it was artificially strong?!?); we killed it.

[Nimbus]

Originally Posted by myaquarium

You have basically agreed with what I said. The pound within the eu although a stand alone currency was much stronger prospect for the market. Once brexit was announced it depreciated to a value of its true worth. It’s only worth what someone will pay for it.if we leave the eu we could see more depreciation but eventually people within the market will see it as good value and then the market value will increase once people start buying into it.

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So for 30 years before the referendum the pound was at the "wrong" value and we've all been getting more dollars and euros than we should have for all those years?

Phew, thank goodness for Brexit then! The pound is now at it's "correct value" and we can relax knowing that we'll now get the lower amount of dollars, euros and other currencies that we should have been getting for decades. Hooray?


(I have no idea what you are on about. IndianaMac used facts to point out that the US dollar is not stronger against the Canadian dollar and Euro now compared to just over 3 years ago; it's roughly the same against other currencies. Therefore your point about the dollar being really strong at the moment is incorrect - or at least it's no stronger than most other currencies. Whereas it's a fact that the pound is at a weaker value against most other currencies at the moment. Whether it's a "correct value" or "true value" is somewhat meaningless).

[disneypars]

Just ordered last £500 via Ramsdens at $1.22. Oh well it is what it is. Still not stop us having a good time.

[myaquarium]

Originally Posted by Nimbus

So for 30 years before the referendum the pound was at the "wrong" value and we've all been getting more dollars and euros than we should have for all those years?

Phew, thank goodness for Brexit then! The pound is now at it's "correct value" and we can relax knowing that we'll now get the lower amount of dollars, euros and other currencies that we should have been getting for decades. Hooray?


(I have no idea what you are on about. IndianaMac used facts to point out that the US dollar is not stronger against the Canadian dollar and Euro now compared to just over 3 years ago; it's roughly the same against other currencies. Therefore your point about the dollar being really strong at the moment is incorrect - or at least it's no stronger than most other currencies. Whereas it's a fact that the pound is at a weaker value against most other currencies at the moment. Whether it's a "correct value" or "true value" is somewhat meaningless).

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The only facts you are giving is to blame everything on brexit. Obviously the pound weakened on the announcement of brexit the figures clearly show that. The market has its concerns people are not buying into the pound even though the economy is doing as well if not better than most of the world. A weaker pound is great for the economy and bad for the holiday maker. When eventually the pounds strengthens back to its norm of about $1.40 were will your blame lie then.

[myaquarium]

Originally Posted by IndianaMac

No, I really haven't...

My bold and underlined.

That's some real cognitive dissonance there.

The real value of the pound is indeed whatever the markets are willing to pay, and that is governed by forecasts, perceived stabilities, strengths etc... by voting to leave, the stability and strength once associated with the Pound went south, and effectively our country was weaker and poorer overnight, due entirely to our own government's actions of putting economic decisions in the hands of a laymen electorate.

The current weakness of the Pound is entirely our own making; it didn't depreciate to a value of its true worth (like for years it was artificially strong?!?); we killed it.

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Can you elaborate on the term laymen electorate. I’m confused

[katiec68]

We are watching what happens and I did post the other day about if people are changing their plans due to the rubbish rate!

We are not due to go until December so yes - we probably should have bought at 1.30 earlier this year but I kind of think that hopefully be December there might be a bit more clarity (yeah right ) and it might have gone back up!

What we should probably do is buy £1000 worth now!

[Loftus]

Our balance of trade has got worse despite the lower value of the pound.

"When eventually the pound strengthens"...I admire your optimism, I'm not sure I'd be so definitive.

[IndianaMac]

Originally Posted by myaquarium

...The dollar is really strong at the moment due to their booming economy.

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So strong economy = strong currency? Groovy... got it.

Originally Posted by myaquarium

A weaker pound is great for the economy

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So weak currency = strong economy? Groovy... got it... except, nah, didn't you just say the opposite?

As Loftus points out, any advantage (to exporters) of a weak currency is kinda moot considering the UK runs at a trade deficit (but half (?) our exports are actually to the EU, which will be subject to 10% WTO tariffs soon, so that's gonna help! [not... yay]).

Laymen electorate...

I'll post a link when editing on my phone (typing on work pc, and several websites are blocked... but not the Dibb... proper "yay" to that), but in an Ipsos poll of UK economists, ie, those educated and employed in all matters economic, ie not Laymen, the vast majority thought Brexit a bad idea ("72% thought the most likely outcome would be a negative impact on UK real GDP")... compare that to the UK population as a whole, who are not educated or employed in matters economic, ie, Laymen...

Edit to add link to that which I, an interested layman (though layman nonetheless), am referring and quoting:

ipsos/ipsos-mori/en-...s-views-brexit