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Old 18 Nov 20, 12:44 PM  
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#71
Jaxx
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I live in the Glasgow area and we have had some of the strictest restrictions in all of Scotland for a number of months now. Cases are stabilising (and falling slowly in some areas) but not fast enough it would seem. Given that hospitality has been so highly restricted here for a number of weeks I'm not entirely sure that closing them now completely will make a huge difference. Same with retail-I was briefly in city centre last Saturday to grab some things and the main shopping streets were pretty dead. I totally understand the need for schools to remain open but I think schools/unis and possibly home gatherings must be the the main contributors to the spread, given how restricted everything else has been therefore I'm honestly not sure how this Level 4 "lockdown" will really impact the numbers when schools will remain open.
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Old 18 Nov 20, 01:49 PM  
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disneymike
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Originally Posted by Jaxx View Post
Given that hospitality has been so highly restricted here for a number of weeks I'm not entirely sure that closing them now completely will make a huge difference.
This is why I'm particularly interested to see what story the data will tell of the English lockdown, after it has time to have its influence, because I believe it will be the best barometer of 'how much does a temporary strict lockdown help?'.

England went from comparatively loose on the whole to the quite harsh current restrictions in one stark step 2 weeks ago (generally speaking of course - I know some areas were already in the strictest regional English tier prior to that, but not for all that long). Many English people would have been happily chugging along in tier 1 then slapped with the current lockdown the next day.

Wales had a similar stark change but only kept it going for 2 weeks, and Scotland's changes have always been more gradual in both loosening and tightening so it would seem to follow, that if these temporary strict circuit breaks are worth doing, that England should see a much more rapid drop in infection more quickly than the other 2 nations did. Perhaps an oversimplification but that just feels logical.

Edited at 01:58 PM.
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Old 18 Nov 20, 02:10 PM  
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caj
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Two weeks in and for the first 12 days numbers (according to zoe app) rose steeply. Last 3 days have seen a drop (albeit small). I wonder if the lockdown is actually working?
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Old 18 Nov 20, 03:37 PM  
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Originally Posted by caj View Post
Two weeks in and for the first 12 days numbers (according to zoe app) rose steeply. Last 3 days have seen a drop (albeit small). I wonder if the lockdown is actually working?
Isn't that roughly what we'd expect? People who catch the virus today, likely won't know for a week, give or take, if they know at all.

We were told (or rather those who don't seem to understand the inherent lag with this virus were told) that when the "lockdown" commences all metrics would continue to go in the wrong direction for some time, as those who caught the virus before the "lockdown" went through the being ill, requiring hospitalisation and, sadly, dying cycle of the illness.

There's also been a suggestion, which makes sense logically, that people got together immediately ahead of the lockdown, whilst they still could, and this would have provided a boost to viral spread.
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Old 18 Nov 20, 03:59 PM  
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Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
There's also been a suggestion, which makes sense logically, that people got together immediately ahead of the lockdown, whilst they still could, and this would have provided a boost to viral spread.
According to a report on Sky News earlier today, there was a 10% increase in movement in the four days leading up to England's national restrictions which came in to force earlier this month.
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